What Happens to the Buccaneers' Cap Situation If Tom Brady Retires?

What are the ramifications in relations to the Bucs' cap space, if there are any?

Saturday was a rather interesting day.

It all started when Adam Schefter and Jeff Darlington of ESPN released a report that Tom Brady plans to retire ahead of the 2022 season. Then, a flurry of contradicting reports from multiple, respected journalists and outlets came out and muddied the waters.

Right now, it seems like Brady will retire, but it's not official, just yet. 

There will be a lot of fallout directly related and not-so-directly related to Brady's decision to retire. One of the direct effects will be his impact on the 2022 salary cap. Brady signed a one-year extension back in March 2021 to help alleviate the Bucs' cap room in order to re-sign their own free agents. By doing so, he pushed $32 million worth of dead money into future years. The Bucs also added three voidable years (2023-2025) to the deal to help spread out the cap hit. 

As it stands, Brady is set to make $10,395,588 in 2022 while counting $20,270,588 against the cap. $8.925 million of that is due on February 18 and the remaining is a $1,470,588 17th game roster bonus. 

What matters most is the $32 million in dead money. If Brady announces his retirement and the Bucs run the paperwork before June 2, then he will cost Tampa Bay $32 million in 2022, even though he's not on the roster.

Brady won't wait that long to make the announcement due to the $8.925 million that he's set to receive on February 18. Taking that money while still weighing the future will only complicate things and could lead to the Bucs recouping the money since they're already up against the cap in 2022. 

But just because Brady can't wait until June 2 doesn't mean the Bucs can't. If Brady retires in the next few days or before February 18, the Bucs don't have to process the papers until they're ready to do so. They can carry Brady on the 90-man roster until June 2 and then file the necessary paperwork to make everything official.

By doing so, the Bucs would save $12,270,588 in cap space because only the prorated $8 million would count in 2022. The remaining $24 million would count as a 2023 cap charge, instead. 

So, the Bucs would gain cap space if Brady retires, but they would have to bite the bullet in 2023. The Bucs' free agent landscape will look much different in 2023 as opposed to this year, where they have 25 of their own players set to hit the market. Tampa Bay has a lot more flexibility next year, so it would be able to better manage the larger cap hit in 2023.

The Bucs could also recoup the remaining $16 million that was part of the $20 million signing bonus Brady was given last year since retiring would mean that he didn't play out the life of his contract. Doing so would give the Bucs even more cap space, but whether or not Jason Licht and Co. decide to go that route remains to be seen. 

One thing to keep in mind is that if the Bucs do take the June 2 route, they won't see any cap relief until the paperwork is sent in. What would the point be, there? The Bucs are going to need money to spend during the upcoming free agency period. Tying it all up in Brady would prevent them from getting the extra $12 million, which would essentially render the entire process counterintuitive and counterproductive.

One way to avoid this is to copy what the Saints and Drew Brees did in 2021, which is lower Brady's base salary and roster bonus from $10.4 million to the league minimum of $1.12 million for 2022 while removing incentives, as well. This would lower Brady's cap hit from $20.27 million mark to a little over $9 million, which would save around $11 million right off the bat. This would allow the Bucs to go into free agency with some more cash and in turn, have a better shot at finding a quality replacement or bolstering the roster in other areas. 

In all, Brady's potential retirement won't have immediate cap ramifications if the Bucs play it smart, which they should. There will be some pain in 2023, but the Bucs won't have as near as many in-house free agents that also happen to either be starters or heavy contributors to the team. While it's never ideal to eat $24 million tied into someone that's not even on the roster, at least the Bucs will get some savings out of the deal on the front end. 

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