ESPN's FPI Algorithm Makes Big Prediction for Buccaneers

Here's how ESPN's Football Power Index predicts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will do in the 2024 NFL season.

River Wells | Sep 3, 2024

Aug 23, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks on after a challenge flag was thrown by Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel (not pictured) in the first quarter during preseason at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports / nathan ray seebeck-usa today sports

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There have been predictions aplenty during the 2024 NFL season, and the time for talk is almost over as the NFL's Week 1 kicks up again on Thursday when the Kansas City Chiefs play the Green Bay Packers. Plenty of experts and pundits have their own takes on how the season will go (including us), and ESPN is no exception — but they also have another way to predict this upcoming season.

ESPN's Football Power Index, known as FPI, is what's known as a predictive rating system. In layman's terms, it simulates games and seasons to measure the strength of a football team. To do this, it simulated the NFL season 20,000 times, but ESPN recently released an article that went over just one of these simulations — simulation 515. And it holds some interesting results for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In this simulation, the Bucs win the NFC South and win it handily, going 10-7. The New Orleans Saints came in second in this scenario with a 7-10 record, with the Atlanta Falcons at a measly 6-11 and the Carolina Panthers at 5-12 (which is better than most would probably have them this year).

Here's what writer Seth Walder said about the simulation:

"There was a feeling that the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a mirage, as they barely won the NFC South with a 9-8 record and then lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales (who had resuscitated quarterback Baker Mayfield's career) in the offseason. But Mayfield maintained his strong play, finishing in the top half of the league in QBR and supporting yet another 1,000-yard season from wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs ran away with the division at 10-7, with the New Orleans Saints as the next-closest team at 7-10."

But that wasn't all. Much like last season, FPI has the Buccaneers pulling off an upset and going even further in the playoffs — and this time, it would be against an old NFC Central rival that Tampa Bay defeated last year.

"It didn't end there, as the Buccaneers pulled off a 26-20 home upset over the Green Bay Packers to advance to the divisional round for the second straight season. They ended up falling to the 49ers 30-16, but 2024 confirmed that the success of the Bucs' current core has been no fluke."

This is probably one of the best-case scenarios for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year, outside of a Super Bowl appearance. And while that may be unlikely (but not impossible), a strong showing this year and an appearance in the divisional round once again would show Bucs fans that last year was no one-time thing and that the Bucs and their current staff can put together a contender year-in and year-out.

But that's the long-term goal. The short-term goal is to defeat the Washington Commanders, who come to town this Sunday at 4:25 p.m.

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Published Sep 3, 2024

RIVER WELLS

River Wells is a sports journalist from St. Petersburg, Florida, who has covered the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 2023. He graduated with a journalism degree from the University of Florida in 2021. You can follow him on Twitter @riverhwells.