Can Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quarterback Baker Mayfield Keep it Going?

He revitalized his career as a Pro Bowler in 2023, but just how close does regression loom?

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) walks on the field during warm ups before a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers believe in quarterback Baker Mayfield. It's why they threw him the bag.

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Mayfield was given a three-year deal worth up to $115 million during the offseason, firmly keeping him in Tampa Bay for years to come. This is largely in part due to his stellar 2023 season, in which he threw 28 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions and 4,044 yards. If he keeps that type of play going, Tampa Bay will have landed a franchise quarterback that could stick around for longer than three years for perhaps the first time in its history.

But can he keep it going?

In fact, some people aren't convinced. BleacherReport's Brad Gagnon questioned Mayfield's ability to keep up his high rate of play in a recent article naming one overreaction for each NFL team:

"Overreaction: With the core still intact, Baker Mayfield can keep taking off in 2024.

Why: It's absolutely possible. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick had an impressive showing last season. But there's also a decent chance that it was a fluke and that he'll come back to earth with defenses better prepared for him in 2024."

Additionally, a CBS Sports article named eight teams in "QB purgatory" in a recent article, and Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers were listed as a pairing that fit the bill:

"Baker Mayfield signed a three-year deal worth $100 million to stay in Tampa Bay after leading the Bucs to a playoff win last year. Given Mayfield's up-and-down career, his mostly average season in 2023 before breakout performances down the stretch and in the postseason, I'd say the Buccaneers are firmly in QB purgatory."

So? Can Baker Mayfield continue to bake in Tampa Bay? Or will he falter and regress back to his old ways sooner than later, leaving Tampa Bay stuck?

The answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

Mayfield's history shouldn't be simply discounted. It would be fantastic for the Buccaneers if Mayfield continued to play like he did last year for his entire contract, but he was also far from perfect — despite a solid run at the end of the season, his deep ball still needed work throughout the year and he did end Tampa Bay's season with an errant interception. Those little habits that kept him from being truly great still exist, and he'll have to iron them out if he wants to compete at the next level with the greats. That's something that rarely happens for quarterbacks who have already been in the league for as long as he has.

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That being said, it's still certainly possible. And it should be noted that the run game is looking to be better this year than it was last year, and that would take a tremendous amount of pressure off Mayfield's shoulders. He also did markedly improve in many areas, and he had his best season since his 2020 campaign in Cleveland. With a new offensive coordinator in Liam Coen that he's worked with before, it makes sense that this recent run of form would not be a fluke.

Overall, asking Mayfield to be as strong as he was last year could be a fools errand. But the chance it isn't is far from zero, and anyone who thinks Mayfield will immediately regress to his old ways may want to take caution.

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