Are Cardinals on Right Rebuild Track? Looking at Lions, Yes

The Cardinals have shown flashes of both brilliance and disappointment in year two of their rebuild. Are they on track, or is there cause for concern?

Arizona Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill talks with head coach Jonathan Gannon before playing against the New York Jets at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Nov. 10, 2024. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's week 15 in the NFL, and the Arizona Cardinals are sitting at 6-7 after a trio of flat performances.

Prior to season's start, if any number of fans or media members were told Arizona would hold this record, they might be satisfied, or even a little surprised at the relative success.

Even paying close attention to the improvements made to both sides of the ball in the off-season, a final record of somewhere around 9-8 was the upper limit, at least for this writer. Perhaps I was overly optimistic in that prediction.

But the fact is that it's simply hard to swallow the Cardinals starting out 6-4 and holding first place in the NFC West, only to see them blow their chances at a division title in three straight poor showings.

The raw record alone might not be the problem, but the context of where they were and the potential they've shown makes it much more difficult to be optimistic about the direction this team is heading.

The word "rebuild" gets thrown around frequently. Too often, it's used anytime a team takes a first-round quarterback, or even simply to generally describe a bad team.

Cardinals fans are understandably sick of hearing about Arizona being in a rebuild, but, truthfully, this is the first true rebuild that the Cardinals have committed to in recent history - drafting Kyler Murray and hiring Kliff Kingsbury was not necessarily a full rebuild.

So it's important to really define a rebuild. For the purpose of this article, we'll consider it a complete and utter teardown of a team's infrastructure, as a brand-new coaching regime installs an entirely new system, and--perhaps most importantly--a new philosophy.

These rebuilds aren't one-year processes. Even more casual NFL fans tend to understand this. But when teams go through cold streaks in the midst of their success, it's hard to re-contextualize the greater timeline.

So in order to take a bit more of an objective temperature of the Cardinals' rebuild, let's examine the team that has set the modern blueprint for an NFL rebuild: the Detroit Lions.

The Lions' Rebuild

At the conclusion of the 2020 season, the Lions had finished fourth in the NFC North (a tough division) for the third straight year. They hadn't finished better than 6-10 since 2017, when they went 9-7.

Their head coach? Matt Patricia. And he was fired halfway through the 2020 season, along with their general manager Bob Quinn. It was time to start from scratch.

They hired Brad Holmes as their new GM, and Dan Campbell as their new head coach.

Campbell was, of course a polarizing figure, who was initially met with severe ridicule on social media, and from some analysts.

Older players began to depart, and the team was pretty much devoid of any significant talent. Their one stalwart was quarterback Matthew Stafford, who they traded after the 2020 season to Los Angeles, landing their new franchise quarterback Jared Goff in the process.

It might have seemed head-scratching at the time. But the Lions needed their guy, and they wanted to get younger and cheaper as they continued with a more draft-and-develop process, rather than slapping expensive free agents onto a bullethole-riddled roster.

Perhaps surprisingly, Campbell's players immediately began to rally around him, as he brought a philosophy of toughness and heart to Detroit, while doing away with finesse ball and band-aids as he built his staff around him.

Even in the face of a severe lack of talent and an exceptionally poor first-year record, it felt like a more solid infrastructure was in place. Does all this sound familiar?

The Cardinals' Rebuild

Obviously, I'm not saying Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon is, or will be the coach that Campbell is. Maybe he is, maybe he will be, maybe not. At any rate, Gannon's style and philosophy are categorically adverse to Kingsbury's.

But the Cardinals, coming off two disappointing seasons that culminated with a 4-13 disaster and a Kyler Murray ACL tear, made the decision to start from scratch.

They brought in general manager Monti Ossenfort and Gannon, and Gannon brought defensive coordinator Nick Rallis and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing with him.

The Cardinals bought fully in on the notion of toughness and hard-nosed football. And as a sidenote, Arizona hired Dave Sears as assistant GM. Sears had been with Detroit since 2007, and experienced firsthand the emergence of Dan Campbell and his regime.

Ossenfort began to do away with some of the older players. Most notably, star receiver DeAndre Hopkins was cut. Smaller moves for lesser-known players, and less-than-exciting draft picks followed.

An emphasis on offensive line, the run game, tight ends and the like became the offensive philosophy, with a heavy dose of play action.

Timeline Comparison

Detroit began their rebuild after the 2020 season. 2021 served as year one of the Holmes/Campbell/Goff era.

What that entailed was a poor 3-13-1 record and a non-competitive fourth-place finish. Through their first nine games, they were 0-8-1, and didn't win a matchup until week 13.

Ironically enough, their second win of the season was a systemic beatdown of Kliff Kingsbury's floundering Cardinals--the same team that began the season 7-0.

They parted ways with offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn after that one poor season, and promoted tight ends coach Ben Johnson to OC. And it made sense. They finished with just 19.1 points per game in 2021 with 5,484 yards of total offense.

Year two was a different story. In 2022, despite beginning the season 1-6, the Lions tripled their win total, finished 9-8, and just barely missed the playoffs. They increased their total yards by 1,000 and their PPG to 26.6.

Then, of course, came two explosive seasons. Finally hitting their stride, they finished 12-5 in 2023, winning the division and nearly making a Super Bowl appearance. Through 13 games in 2024, they're 12-1 with a playoff spot clinched, while leading the strongest division in football.

So how does Arizona's timeline look by comparison?

Well, in 2023, the first year of the teardown, the Cardinals' lackluster offense and extremely poor defense awarded them a 4-13 record. They averaged 19.4 PPG, with 5,509 yards of offense, placing fourth in an ever-strong NFC West.

There is the caveat of Murray's injury, which only allowed Arizona's franchise quarterback to play eight rust-filled games. But the Cardinals' new-look offense was less focused on QB play to begin with. Similarly to the Lions, they emphasized the run game and passing to tight ends.

Now, the Cardinals are in year two of their rebuild. It's frustrating to lose three in a row, but they sit at 6-7 through 13 games. In 2022, year two of Detroit's rebuild, they were 6-7 through 13 weeks.

The Cardinals seem to be headed for a 8-9 or 9-8 record, narrowly missing the playoffs. The Lions finished year two of their rebuild 9-8, narrowly missing the playoffs. Not that these teams are an exact 1:1, but it sure seems like a similar philosophy and rebuild process, with similar results for this point in said rebuild.

The Differences

But it isn't a perfect comparison. The Cardinals, unlike the Lions in their year two, aren't seeing the second-year offensive leap they were hoping for so far. Arizona's offense is certainly improved in its ability to move the ball, but they've only seen an improvement to 21.8 PPG in 2024.

They lack the explosiveness of the Lions' downfield passing game, and while James Conner is a force, it isn't quite the same style as the Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery tandem, that focuses more on agility and acceleration.

Although the Cardinals' offense isn't quite living up to its potential, Arizona's defense has emerged as a weapon, led by defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Rallis' unit has allowed 22.2 PPG in 2024, while Detroit's defense surrendered 25.1 PPG in 2022.

Perhaps that isn't so much a concern, but a sign of the difference in coaching staff. Campbell comes from an offensive background, with a star OC in Ben Johnson leading the offense.

Gannon's expertise is in defensive development, something Arizona has benefited strongly from, with Rallis' emergence as a top young coordinator to aid this process. But ultimately, Arizona's offense has been one-dimensional, and unable to maximize the talent of players like Marvin Harrison Jr.

The system simply doesn't provide easy answers for a quarterback outside of unproductive checkdowns, and it's less creative, dynamic and explosive.

Simply put, there's a stubbornness to create opportunity through the run game that hasn't panned out lately, with little adjustments being made.

Then, there's the quarterback play. Goff and Murray are obviously vastly different types of players.

Goff, through 13 games in 2022, had put up 3,312 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions on 70.7% completion. Murray, through 13 games in 2024, has just 2,862 yards through the air, with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Granted, Murray does have 444 yards and four scores on the ground. That is an important factor, and something that isn't part of Goff's game.

But, perhaps that is one of the issues in itself. Goff was brought in by Detroit's new staff, and was brought in specifically with a system and philosophy already in mind. They knew he could run their system, and well.

Petzing and the rest of the Cardinals' staff, however, seems to be trying to fit Murray into a system that doesn't play to his strengths.

Murray is an exceptional athlete, but isn't a pure pocket passer, and doesn't have exceptional middle-of-field ability.

That's not an indictment of him as a person or player, and there's practically zero chance he isn't Arizona's quarterback next season, but he has played quite poorly in the past several weeks, turning the ball over and failing to perform when the moments are the most crucial.

I believe it's a blend of problems with the offensive system and playmakers around Murray contributing; Murray does, however, need to play better, and it's concerning that in year six we're still seeing a similar drop in play post-bye.

Conclusion

A month ago, I examined some of the leading narratives surrounding this Cardinals team and their rebuild process.

I (erroneously) thought they were on perfect pace to make the playoffs, and Murray was in the middle of inserting himself into the MVP conversation. At the time, sitting at 6-4 and leading the division, both things were a little closer to the truth.

But one thing I did maintain is that the Cardinals were not ahead of schedule. If they had won the division or a playoff game, that would have been "ahead of schedule."

But when the Detroit Lions' blueprint of what a proper systemic rebuild looks like is truly examined in parallel with what Arizona is doing, it looks to be exactly right.

The Cardinals have front-loaded their year-two success, unlike the Lions who surged late but do have at least two to three winnable games left on the schedule.

The main concerns come from that lack of late-year success, the difference in quarterback fit in their systems, and, perhaps the most important - division games.

Of the Lions' 12 total wins between years one and two of their rebuild, seven of them were against divisional opponents, sweeping both the Packers and Bears in 2022.

Arizona, however, was 0-6 against the NFC West in 2023. They're 2-2 in 2024, with tough matchups against the resurgent Rams and 49ers in the waning weeks of the season.

Perhaps the Seahawks are merely Gannon's Vikings, but these divisional games, and last four weeks in general, will be crucial in determining whether or not this Cardinals team is truly on even a remotely similar trajectory to the Lions.

Brutally put, Murray needs to play much better, and the Cardinals need to win both remaining divisional games.

If they can do that, then the Cardinals are the defensive-focused side of the same rebuild coin. Maybe we were all deceived by the potential explosiveness of Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Maybe, this team is the defensive version of the Lions.

I'm not sure how realistic a division title and a playoff win will be for 2025, but for now, just remember the process. Impatience is much more of a factor on fans than it is on Ossenfort and Gannon.

In conclusion, in this exact moment, with recency bias aside, the Cardinals are where the Lions were at this stage of their rebuild in 2022. How they've gotten there has been a bit different, but outside the offensive/defensive flip, the structural similarity and overall philosophy is quite comparable.

This process was always going to take a long time, and truthfully, there isn't a great deal of time left. There does need to be urgency within the Cardinals' organization, but that feels much more likely to be fulfilled by Gannon and Ossenfort.

Despite the recent disappointment, we may as well enjoy the ride.