How Cardinals Can Upset Packers

The Cardinals will face a beatable Packers squad Sunday, but must emphasize ball security and takeaways.

Cardinals receiver Greg Dortch (4) sprints upfield for a first down against the Commanders during a game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Sept. 29, 2024. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ARIZONA--The Arizona Cardinals have an intriguing matchup with the Green Bay Packers looming on the horizon of week six.

The Packers are 3-2, somehow worthy of last place in the NFC North. Led by young starting quarterback Jordan Love, Green Bay's offense has been built on a gunslinger archetype, reliant on big plays.

Explosiveness has been their calling card, and the Cardinals know they need to try and dampen chunk plays.

Unfortunately for Arizona, their defense - despite some dominant halves - hasn't been up to the task of stopping big plays, and their pass rush could suffer greatly against a quarterback such as Love, who excels at escaping pressure and making plays on the run.

While it ultimately comes down to execution, there's a factor at play that could be the fulcrum of a resounding victory in a tough environment - or the catalyst for a devastating loss: turnovers.

The Turnover Battle

The Packers don't have what you'd call a lockdown defense. But what they are is opportunistic.

Green Bay leads all NFL teams in takeaways this season with 14. They're second in interceptions with nine, and have forced nine fumbles (recovering five of them). However, they're 12th in points allowed, and have surrendered a 21st-ranked 345.8 yards per game to opponents.

The Cardinals' offense will need to focus on ball security. Moving the ball against the Packers shouldn't be an issue, but carelessness could result in disaster, especially if red zone opportunities are squandered by untimely turnovers.

Kyler Murray has only thrown two interceptions this season. As a whole, the nagging turnover problem hasn't been as much of an issue for the Cardinals' QB yet this year. But he'll need to continue that.

On the flipside, the Packers have seen a heavy dose of yardage from Love, but have also been burned by bad interceptions. Despite missing two games with an injury, Love has thrown for 863 yards in three starts, including 389 against the Vikings.

He's thrown eight touchdowns, but has also been neutralized by five interceptions, four of which came in one game.

The Cardinals' defense has similarly surrendered a seventh-most 360.6 yards per game. With a gunslinger QB like Love, Arizona cannot avoid giving up major yardage with the pass rush and secondary talent they have, regardless of Nick Rallis' second-half adjustments.

What they can do is take the ball away from Love. They've intercepted four passes this season, two of which came against Brock Purdy and the 49ers. Since limiting Green Bay's chunk plays will be an issue, Arizona can try an aggressive defensive approach, looking to chop drives short rather than holding down explosiveness.

The "X" Factor

Packers S Xavier McKinney

Safety Xavier McKinney will be the player to watch on the Packers' defense. After coming over from the Giants on a four-year deal, McKinney leads all defensive players in interceptions in 2024 with five.

He's intercepted a pass in every game this season, aggressively baiting and ball-hawking opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate. He's posted a 90.7 coverage grade thus far.

The Packers might surrender a large amount of yardage, but the ball isn't safe in the air when McKinney is around.

So what does this mean for the Cardinals?

High-Percentage Throws

The Cardinals need to establish the run - that much is true for this team's offense every week. RB James Conner will once again be the focal point, and Arizona should be able to run well on Green Bay's run defense, which averages 114.2 yards allowed per game.

But when passing, the Cardinals need to find a way to sharpen their high-percentage throws. While Murray has connected with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. for plenty of deep throws and red zone touchdowns, it's on middle-of-field, move-the-sticks plays that they've seemed to be on different pages regularly.

If Murray can find a way to keep his completion percentage high, the yards per attempt won't be key. Finding ways to move the sticks, regularly complete passes around the 6-10 yard range, and avoid putting the ball in harm's way deep down the field will be Arizona's offensive success.

Look for Arizona to get WR Greg Dortch and TE Trey McBride involved underneath, and spread the ball around the field in shorter-yardage passing downs. If Murray throws for 200 or fewer yards, but picks up first downs and completes his passes without turning the ball over, Arizona is in good shape.