Stats Show Cardinals Are Better Than You Think
Though the Arizona Cardinals are just 1-2 after three weeks of play, the team has managed to gain the respect of national media after fighting much harder than most anticipated.
Though moral victories won't show up in the win-loss column, the Cardinals hope to continue improving week after week under first year head coach Jonathan Gannon.
Arizona was expected to be the worst team in the league - yet through three games, that's been far from the case.
DVOA Ranking: No. 10
DVOA (Defense Adjusted Over Average) has grown as a popular advanced analytic for NFL teams and better captures exactly how good/efficient a team is taking into account quality of opponent.
A deeper explanation:
"DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20% worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. Every year is normalized so the average for that year is 0%."
The Cardinals' team DVOA of 18.4% is good enough for No. 10 in the NFL. For comparison, the Buffalo Bills are No. 1 at 55.5% and the Philadelphia Eagles are No. 5 with 31.9%.
The Cardinals have held leads in the second half of all three of their games - leading many to believe they're a Kyler Murray away from being 2-1 or perhaps even 3-0.
Offensive Rankings
The Arizona Cardinals' offense has surprisingly been a strong point of the team thus far.
Without Kyler Murray, QB Josh Dobbs has steadied the ship, and that will likely carry over until Murray eventually returns. Dobbs was acquired with just six practices until Week 1's road test against the Washington Commanders, and his play has steadily improved with each week.
Arizona has struggled with passing the ball, though the Cardinals are averaging 329.7 yards per game, good enough for 18th in the league.
James Conner has done a strong job shouldering the load in an offense that clearly relies on its ground attack. He's currently fourth in the NFL with 266 rushing yards. Only Tony Pollard (16), Brian Robinson (16), D'Andre Swift (16) and Christian McCaffrey (15) have picked up more first downs on the ground than Conner (14).
As a whole, the Cardinals are tied for 12th in PPG with 24. They've strung together consecutive 28 point games for the first time since the team's 7-0 start in 2021 and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has received quite the amount of praise for what he's been able to do.
Defensive Rankings
The Arizona Cardinals' defense has fought hard despite missing multiple starters in each of the last two weeks.
The Cardinals are tied for 16th in the league for points allowed per game with 22.3, though two of their three games they've held opponents to 20 and 16 points, respectively.
Without Budda Baker the last two games, the Cardinals rank near the bottom for yards allowed per game in both the pass and run game, though their 11 quarterback sacks places them fifth in the league for that mark. They're also just one of 12 teams in the league to have five or more takeaways and their overall turnover differential of +3 is good enough for No. 7.
Looking at the overall numbers, there's plenty for the Cardinals to improve on in nearly every facet. Yet that's exciting for an Arizona defense that has shown they can rise to the occasion despite being down numerous bodies.
No, the Cardinals aren't winning a Super Bowl, nor are they going to win the NFC West in 2023. In all likelihood, they'll be picking near the top of the 2024 NFL Draft.
But maybe - just maybe - the Cardinals are a better team than many of us initially believed.
