Chargers Given Less Than Ideal Win-Total For New NFL Season

Jeremy Hanna | Sep 3, 2024

Jun 13, 2024; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh at a press conference during minicamp at the Hoag Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing finish last season, the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to have a resurgence this season.

With a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh and new general manager in Joe Hortiz, fans believe that the Bolts could really turn their trajectory around, especially with star quarterback Justin Herbert still at the helm.

Unfortunately, computers don't seem to agree.

Recently, The Athletic calculated total win projections for all 32 NFL teams in the 2024 season using a betting model created by Austin Mock.

After 10,000 simulations of the 2024 NFL season, the betting model predicted that the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will finish in the top of their conferences with an estimated 11.4 and 11.3 wins, respectively.

On the other end of the scale, the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders are believed to finish last with six wins and 5.9 wins each.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are projected to finish just ahead of the Los Angeles Rams with 8.9 total wins.

The Athletic then had experts respond to these predictions, and senior writer and Chargers expert Daniel Popper thought that the betting model was spot on.

"Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers," Popper said. "I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles."

"And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury."

While a 9-8 finish would be considered a disappointment for some teams, it would mark a significant improvement for the Chargers.

Last year, the Chargers finished with a dismal 5-12 record. Not only was this the worst record in the AFC West but it was the second-worst in the AFC, barely beating out the New England Patriots who finished 4-13.

Additionally, the Chargers have to face multiple teams that are considered the strongest in the NFL, including the Chiefs, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Cincinnati Bengals, all teams who are projected to win more than 10 games.

If Harbaugh is able to build a solid foundation for the Chargers, there is no telling where they'll wind up in the near future. Sometimes, it takes a season to get there.

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