Chargers Shockingly Given Strong Odds to Make Postseason By Projection Model

Can LA bounce back from a brutal 5-12 run in 2023?

Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10). / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Can the Los Angeles Chargers bounce back from a brutal 5-12 run in 2023, under the stewardship of new coach Jim Harbaugh and new general manager Joe Hortiz?

That's what Austin Mock of The Athletic posits, at least, via his new NFL Projection Model, which provides game simulations while predicting the quality of each club.

The model gives Los Angeles a 57.7 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, and 3.1 percent odds of making the Super Bowl. Both those percentages represent the sixth-best odds in the entire NFL.

"The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are a bit of a surprise with how high they sit as potential playoff teams, but each has a top-five easiest schedule, according to my model," Mock writes. "Both teams should also see a significant upgrade at the quarterback position compared with last year. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, who is a borderline top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and the Chargers are welcoming back Justin Herbert after an injury-riddled season and now have Jim Harbaugh taking over as coach."

Herbert missed the final four games of the season with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand during a 24-7 Week 14 loss to the Denver Broncos on December 10.

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