Tackle in the first round? A case for long-term building for the Kansas City Chiefs

Why a recent Brett Veach quote might suggest the Chiefs are leaning towards a different draft strategy than many draft experts think.

In a press conference looking ahead to the 2020 NFL Draft, Chiefs General Manager Brett Veach said this to reporters:

“We’re trying to build this not just for next year but for the next five to 10 years.”

This statement might just be a throwaway statement, but it could mean something more.

Heading into the 2020 draft, the general consensus about the positions of need for the Chiefs are cornerback, linebacker, guard, center, and running back. Most mock drafts that span multiple rounds usually have the Chiefs picking players from those position groups. 

What if what Brett Veach said was not just lip service, and the Chiefs do focus on team-building for the next five to 10 years? Veach using the draft to build out the team for the future would be a smart idea with Patrick Mahomes’ mega-deal on the horizon. 

If Veach does adopt a long-term mindset heading into the draft, then the entire draft for the Chiefs could look different than most mock drafters believe. What would a draft with a long-term mindset look like? For the Chiefs, it might put some positions in play that have not been talked about much in relation to them leading up to the draft.

The NFL, as a whole, values positions at different levels. The most obvious case of this is quarterback, where we routinely see teams take chances on signal-callers high in the draft due to the importance of the position. To first understand what a long-term draft for the Chiefs would look like, one has to examine which positions are valued at the highest level around the NFL.

A good overview of how the league views positions in the draft can be seen by looking at the last five years of first round picks. While the strength of a positional class can dictate how many players from one position group go in the first round, a sample size of five years can indicate trends.

For the chart below, the value of a pick was determined using a draft pick value chart that Harvard Sports Analysis formulated in 2011. Unlike the Jimmy Johnson trade chart that has become so prevalent in the draft community, the Harvard draft chart tries to assign value to draft picks by giving it a value based off of Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric. The draft picks were from the 2015-2019 NFL drafts.

The main thing that stands out in looking at the above chart is that there is a clear hierarchy of positions the NFL prioritizes.

Quarterbacks and edge rushers make up the premium class that the NFL prioritizes. Quarterback easily had the highest average capital spent per pick at 5th overall, despite having a large number of picks at 16. EDGE had the most picks of any position group at 22, but despite that, had the second-highest average capital spent per pick. Getting the quarterback and getting after the quarterback are the premium in the NFL.

In the next group of positions are WR, T, DT, and CB. All had numerous picks spent on their position groups and the average capital spent per pick was somewhere in the mid-teens for each position group.

Bringing up the rear is RB, TE, G/C, 3-4 DE, off-ball LB, and S. All of these position groups either had less picks spent on their position group and/or had a lower average capital spent per pick.

What does this mean for the Chiefs?

The NFL has premium positions and usually teams near the end of the first round don’t get a chance to draft a high-impact player at a premium position. In normal NFL drafts, top three tackles go in the first 16 picks, and the fifth-rated tackle is not a value at the end of the first round.

The premium positions that should stand out for the Chiefs come draft time are tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. There is a possibility that when the draft gets to the Chiefs’ pick at 32 overall, an impact player at one of those premium positions will be available.

Why would the Chiefs go for one of those position groups? The Chiefs need at cornerback is well-documented, and most mock drafts, even after re-signing Bashaud Breeland, have the Chiefs selecting a cornerback in the first two rounds.

However, tackle and wide receiver are very rarely taken for the Chiefs across the mock draft landscape. Despite having starters at both positions for 2020, the Chiefs lack long-term commitment at both positions. Eric Fisher will be in the last year of his long-term deal in 2021 and will be due more than $14 million with a small dead cap hit if he were to be released. Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson only signed one-year deals in their return to the Chiefs and look likely to hit free agency after the 2020 season.

Looking at Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 150 Big Board as an example, among his Top 50 players, he has six tackles, nine wide receivers and seven cornerbacks. This leaves 22 players with Top-50 grades at those premium positions. Considering how players at positions other than these three premium positions will go in the first 31 picks, one of these 22 players will almost assuredly be available at the Chiefs pick at 32, and probably multiple of them.

The effects of a deep class will be felt beyond the first round as well. Teams filling needs at wide receiver, tackle, and cornerback will likely feel less-inclined to take those positions later in the draft and, because of this, quality players at premium positions could drop to even the Chiefs’ second round pick at 63rd overall.

Assuming premium players do fall to the Chiefs’ picks in the first three rounds, what players would the Chiefs be looking at with long-term team building in mind?

Players at 32: Josh Jones (T), Austin Jackson (T), Denzel Mims (WR), Jalen Reagor (WR), Brandon Aiyuk (WR), Jeff Gladney (CB), Kristian Fulton (CB), Jaylon Johnson (CB), AJ Terrell (CB).

These players have all been mocked above pick 32 in multiple mock drafts leading up to the draft, but the depth at premium positions could push them down to pick 32.

The position considered the most unlikely for the Chiefs to draft now that could manifest on draft night would be a tackle at pick 32. If Josh Jones or Austin Jackson fall to pick 32, then do not be surprised if the Chiefs jump on the chance to draft their Eric Fisher replacement without having to move up in the draft.

Players at 63: Prince Tega Wanogho (T), Lucas Niang (T), Isaiah Wilson (T), Hakeem Adeniji (T), Laviska Shenault (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), Michael Pittman Jr (WR), KJ Hamler (WR), Noah Igbinoghene (CB), Bryce Hall (CB), Cameron Dantzler (CB).

There could be some really nice prospects at premium positions that fall to the Chiefs at 63rd overall. The depth of this class at premium positions really shows when looking at the second round, where the Chiefs could have a chance at a good prospect despite picking late in the round.

Players at 96: Ben Bartch (T), Saahdiq Charles (T), Matthew Peart (T), Jack Driscoll (T), Donovan People-Jones (WR), Tyler Johnson (WR), Bryan Edwards (WR), Van Jefferson (WR), Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR), Damon Arnette (CB).

The amount of wide receiver depth in the second and third rounds has been well-documented this year, and this could lead to some very quality players falling to the Chiefs’ third-round pick. The tackles at the end of the third are also more appealing than usual and the Chiefs could get a realistic Fisher successor there.

Considering the players that could be available at the Chiefs picks, one long-term draft could look like:

1 (32): Austin Jackson, OT

2 (63): Bryce Hall, CB

3 (96): Troy Dye, LB

4 (138): Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR

5 (177): Logan Stenberg, G

In this scenario, the Chiefs opt for a tackle who would usually go higher than pick 32 in most years, but fell due to the depth at tackle. Even though the Chiefs passed on a need at cornerback in the first round, they were still able to scoop up an instant contributor at 63rd overall thanks to the early-round depth at cornerback. The Chiefs then are able to fill out some immediate needs after picking premium positions with players that could contribute day one.

Even if the Chiefs do not select one of the players at premium positions at 32, the fact that many premium positions are flush with talent this year could also bode well for the Chiefs, as it could push top-rated talent at less desirable positions to their pick at 32. Players like Cesar Ruiz, Patrick Queen, and Xavier McKinney could be fallers due to the possibility that teams could be picking wide receivers, tackles, and cornerbacks in bunches. In this scenario, the Chiefs could also trade down, obtain more picks, and still get a quality player at the pick they traded down to, all because of a deep draft at premium positions.

Overall, the 2020 NFL Draft is set up to give Brett Veach the opportunity to construct a blueprint for how he wants to build the Chiefs roster in a future with Patrick Mahomes making oodles of money. It’s up to him what he does with this opportunity. Don’t let anything be a surprise.