The Chiefs Should Think Twice About Picking George Karlaftis Early

Karlaftis is a Chiefs-style pick, but maybe he shouldn't be.

Heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs are in desperate need of a defensive end. Their pass rush was anemic last season, and it just so happens that this year's EDGE class features plenty of prospects who are intriguing.

Intriguing may not be the most accurate word to describe Purdue's George Karlaftis, but his case sure is an interesting one nonetheless.

Mar 4, 2022; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Purdue defensive lineman George Karlaftis (DL33) talks to the media during the 2022 NFL Combine. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

For months, Karlaftis has been a near-consensus first-round pick with a strong likelihood of going in the first half of Day 1. He's currently the 18th-ranked player on NFL Mock Draft Database's consensus big board, which aggregates rankings from various prominent sites. While he may have seen his stock slip a bit from the sky-high trendline it was a while back, it's still strong.

There's plenty to like about Karlaftis from a statistical standpoint despite him totaling just 14 sacks over three seasons with the Boilermakers. The recently-turned 21-year-old amassed 29 tackles for loss (TFL) during his college career. Additionally, he had a nose for the football during his junior season. In 2021 alone, Karlaftis recorded four passes broken up/deflected, two forced fumbles and a pair of fumble recoveries. His 17-TFL, 7.5-sack freshman campaign will always stand out but overall, Karlaftis was far from an underperformer.

In terms of measurables, Karlaftis fits the bill for the Chiefs. Not only is he over 6'3", but he also hits the 260-pound threshold that nearly all Steve Spagnuolo defensive ends measure up to. While his arms are a bit shorter than ideal, his length is still adequate. His raw athletic profile is impressive (but more on that later) when looking at the data.

On tape, Karlaftis is explosive and powerful with the ability to play up and down the defensive front. There aren't many 2022 EDGE prospects who are pack more of a punch than him. He's more than strong enough to set the edge as a run defender and is heady enough to stop opposing ball carriers in their tracks. He has multiple traits that will endear him to professional teams.

With that said, the Chiefs drafting Karlaftis if he falls to pick 29 or 30 should be far from a slam-dunk.

Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis (5) tackles Northwestern running back Evan Hull (26) during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Cfb Purdue Vs Northwestern

There are glaring downsides in regards to Karlaftis' game, most notably his lack of high-end bend and general flexibility. He's rather stiff coming off the edge and while it won't be what limits him from being at least a somewhat productive player in the NFL, it puts a very clear cap on his overall ceiling. His immense strength and power can get him by, although the jump from the Big Ten Conference (or college in general) to the NFL is quite notable. 

If Karlaftis can't win with his bread and butter at the next level, he's going to struggle. His change-of-direction ability is lackluster, which coincides with the stiffness in his hips and ankles. Unless he can be loosened up with proper NFL coaching and training, this will be exploited by well-prepared, intelligent or equally strong offensive tackles. Being in a phone booth isn't where Karlaftis thrives, and he'll be put in those situations plenty of times moving forward.

In a vacuum, Karlaftis appears to be a Chiefs-style pick. He's a near-prototypical Spagnuolo defensive end from a body standpoint, he plays quality run defense and he has the ability to win with power on the outside or interior. For a team that needs major help, he can likely step in and be effective to a degree in year one.

Nov 27, 2021; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers defensive end George Karlaftis (5) celebrates a sack during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Boilermakers won 44-7. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

On the flip side of that coin, Kansas City should be looking for elite-level athletes and tremendous upside at the defensive end spot. Depending on the board near the end of the first round, names like David Ojabo, Arnold Ebiketie or possibly even Boye Mafe offer greater potential than Karlaftis. They win in different ways but are just as enticing of prospects.

The Chiefs have dug themselves into a hole by investing in limited players such as Frank Clark, Alex Okafor and Mike Danna as of late. By adding Karlaftis, they'd be making it perfectly clear that they are content with keeping up that trend. Karlaftis has a chance of becoming a good NFL player who rushes the passer well, but the path to him cashing in on that upside is murky. 

The floor with others may be lower but — in the first round — the Chiefs should at least give themselves a fighting chance at striking gold. They can add good run defenders with spontaneous pass-rush "pop" later in the draft. With their best picks, they need significant difference-making promise. Opting to bring in anything else might turn out to be a regrettable decision in the long run.