Chiefs vs. 49ers Preview: How KC Can Win Week 7 Rematch of Super Bowl LVIII

The Kansas City Chiefs will have their work cut out for them on Sunday, but this year's San Francisco 49ers club is far from invincible.

October 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and head coach Andy Reid (right) during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

After a week off to get some much-needed rest and relaxation, the Kansas City Chiefs are back on the grind as Week 7 of the 2024-25 NFL season gets underway.

On Sunday, it's a regular-season rematch of Super Bowl LVIII's outing against the San Francisco 49ers. While a lot has changed for both clubs over the last several months, they remain two of the favorites to once again reach the big game next February. This matchup will provide either side with an opportunity to see how it stacks up versus a perceived contender, although the repercussions of a loss would be felt far more by the 3-3 49ers than the 5-0 Chiefs.

How does Kansas City match up with San Francisco, and how could Sunday afternoon's game unfold? Let's preview Week 7 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for 49ers during the offseason

Gains: DE Leonard Floyd, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, LB De'Vondre Campbell, DT Jordan Elliott, WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green

Losses: DT Arik Armstead, DE Clelin Ferrell, QB Sam Darnold, S Tashaun Gipson, DE Randy Gregory, DE Chase Young

49ers offensive breakdown: Still potent without Christian McCaffrey?

San Francisco misses superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. There's no mistaking that. Backup Jordan Mason has done an admirable job filling in while he sits out with an Achilles ailment, but the reigning Offensive Player of the Year can't exactly be replaced. With that said, the 49ers are trying their best to maintain a dangerous attack led by head coach Kyle Shanahan, quarterback Brock Purdy and some great weapons.

Entering Week 7, San Francisco's offense ranks second in yards and points. A No. 6 ranking in EPA per play (fifth pass, 12th rush) signals how well-balanced their attack can be. The offense is seventh in explosive play rate, generating chunk gains through the air and on the ground. In the run game, the 49ers opt for plenty of inside and outside zone but will mix in some man/duo concepts, power and even a bit of counter as well. Motion, a Shanahan staple, is being implemented on roughly 70% of plays – a top-five mark.

The matchup to watch here should be San Francisco's passing game against the Kansas City defense. Purdy is facing pressure at the seventh-highest rate on offense and will be facing a Steve Spagnuolo-led unit that's tied for the best pressure rate. Despite that pressure, Purdy is elite at extending plays and doesn't take many sacks. He has some similarities to Patrick Mahomes in that regard, although the 24-year-old pushes the ball down the field way more consistently.

Pressured time to throw vs pressure to sack. Mahomes Allen Lamar Purdy nice pic.twitter.com/cjcnLW2lEW

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 15, 2024

San Francisco filters in plenty of under-center work on offense. Hitches, out routes of varying depths and in/dig stems will be featured in the passing game. As expected, the 49ers rank first in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) usage at 41.5% on the year and are fourth in EPA/play at 0.19 per SumerSports. The downside is being 29th in 11 personnel (20% below league average) and 30th in 12 personnel (12% below league average) utilization, but it still works just fine.

49ers defensive breakdown: Not quite the same San Francisco unit?

It's a new era for the 49ers with Nick Sorensen taking over as defensive coordinator. The results have been mixed. San Francisco ranks just outside the top 10 in points and yards allowed this year, which comes after occupying great or elite slots in each of the last three campaigns. Respectable, but not great rankings in EPA/play (13th), EPA/pass (12th) and EPA/run (17th) drive that home. They're also below average on third downs and in the red zone. This year's defense looks more like a solid one than a top unit in the sport.

It isn't necessarily for a lack of talent, as players like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward still patrol the defense. Pressure also isn't a problem; San Francisco's one of the best in the business at generating quick pressures and the defense ranks a healthy 12th in pressure rate despite shying away from blitzing. Sorensen's defensive front can still get after it, and the next level isn't too shabby either.

Schematically, the 49ers rank towards the middle of the pack in Cover 1 (23%) and Cover 3 (28%) usage. They aren't much of a Cover 2 club, either, ranking near the bottom 10 so far at 9%. Conversely, San Francisco's methods of choice are Cover 6 (9% is just outside the top 10) and Cover 4 (21%). The latter is a top-five figure, so don't expect anyone to avoid a blanket quarters coverage on the back end. A Chiefs offense that ranks dead last in explosive play rate still faces a challenge.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. 49ers

San Francisco: RB Jordan Mason, DE Nick Bosa

Mason suffered an AC joint sprain in the 49ers' Week 6 win, and he was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. If he can go on Sunday, the Chiefs face a tall task in slowing him down. The third-year man has 684 scrimmage yards in 2024. On the other side of the ball, Bosa has three sacks in six games but is up to 35 pressures and 26 hurries already. He'll give the Kansas City offensive line all it can handle.

Kansas City: WR Xavier Worthy, S Chamarri Conner

Before the bye week, Worthy set a new personal best with six targets. If the Chiefs are serious about expanding his role, it could help offset players like Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Rashee Rice not being in the lineup. Head coach Andy Reid seems optimistic. Defensively, Conner (or whoever occupies slot reps) will have a long afternoon against standout options like Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, all of whom have 50-plus slot snaps in 2024.

Week 7 score prediction: 27-23 Chiefs

Of all the games left on the Chiefs' schedule, this and Week 11's outing against the Buffalo Bills are the two I'm least confident in predicting. Don't let the 49ers' 3-3 record fool you – this is a very good team. Even if they lose and drop to 3-4, I'd still consider them one of the NFC's best. With that said, it's hard to side against Kansas City until given a reason to. Reid got the most out of a somewhat barebones receiving corps heading into the bye, and I anticipate he might get just enough with an extra week to prep. The Chiefs win yet another one-score game here in a battle that could come down to which club has possession last.

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