Chiefs vs. Bengals Preview: How KC Can Beat Cincinnati in Week 2

It's another AFC North opponent for the Kansas City Chiefs, with the winless Cincinnati Bengals bringing an intriguing Week 2 challenge.

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) meet following the game at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Following a clutch victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs will face their second AFC North opponent in a row to begin the 2024-25 NFL season.

In Week 2, it's the Cincinnati Bengals who will come to town for a pivotal early-season matchup. How can Kansas City ensure that the visitors leave GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium 0-2? Let's preview Sunday's game and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Bengals during the offseason

Gains: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, S Vonn Bell, S Geno Stone, DT Sheldon Rankins, OT Amarius Mims

Losses: RB Joe Mixon, CB Chidobe Awuzie, WR Tyler Boyd, DT D.J. Reader, OT Jonah Williams

Bengals offensive breakdown: Will the real Joe Burrow please stand up?

Even when Mixon was on the roster, Cincinnati's bread and butter was to throw the football. Under head coach Zac Taylor, the Bengals posted the NFL's third-highest pass rate (67%) in 2023 and went to the shotgun formation nearly two-thirds of the time (second in football) according to nfelo. As far as personnel is concerned, they go to 11 (one running back, one tight end) for 70% of first downs and love spreading the field out with sets containing three wide receivers.

Last year's Cincinnati offense was tough to break down. Quarterback Joe Burrow started the season working his way back from an injury, then he got hurt again but things didn't get worse with Jake Browning under center. Despite sticking with 11 personnel at a 75% clip and posting the fourth-highest EPA per play there (0.10, per Arjun Menon's The Scout), the Bengals' explosive play rate out of 11 personnel ranked 22nd. The same metric versus nickel defenses ranked 24th. Add in an NFL-worst average depth of target, and it's easy to see that a once-dangerous offense struggled to break off chunk plays.

With Burrow back, expect lots of damage outside the numbers. Per NFLsavant, Cincinnati's route distribution for 2023-24 passing plays featured flats, hitches, outs, screens and "go" routes between 10-18% of the time. Tyler Boyd's ability to threaten over the middle of the field is no longer there. With Ja'Marr Chase still working to full capacity and Tee Higgins nursing a hamstring injury that could hold him out, the Bengals' offense faces serious questions. That's without even mentioning the halfback duo or the offensive line.

If you're looking for a scheme-related battle, think about Cover-2 for both sides. Last year, Burrow averaged 0.50 EPA/play against those shells with a staggering 17.8 completion percentage over expected (NFL Quarterback and Defensive Coverage Efficiency app). The Chiefs' defense, on the other hand, surrendered negative EPA/play on 96 attempts in 2023-24.

Bengals defensive breakdown: Still a force to be reckoned with?

Simply put, this isn't the same daunting Lou Anarumo defense the Chiefs dealt with in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Last year's Cincinnati unit ranked 27th in EPA/play allowed per SumerSports, also slotting in dead last in explosive play rate. They matched 12 personnel with nickel 73% of the time and matched 13 personnel with base to the tune of 92%.

Let's expand on that latter part. The Bengals' run defense was extremely poor a season ago, ranking 31st with a near-13% explosive rush rate allowed. Their base defense averaged a league-worst 0.16 EPA/play on the year. All the team has done since then is swap Reader for Rankins – trading run defense for pass-rushing ability – and give up 120 yards to the New England Patriots' Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1. If the Chiefs are smart, they might remind Isiah Pacheco of the 130 yards he totaled versus Cincinnati in last year's Week 17 meeting. Kansas City's usage of heavy personnel also plays to their favor this time.

The other schematic matchup to account for is Cover-3. Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.12 EPA/play against it last season, with Cincinnati surrendering 0.20 EPA/play with a 71.6 completion percentage on such looks. The Bengals figure to be more proficient with Bell and Stone patrolling the secondary, and there's talent elsewhere. With that said, this seems to have the feel of a potentially respectable unit rather than a return to greatness.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Bengals

Cincinnati: TE Mike Gesicki, DE Trey Hendrickson

Gesicki thought he scored a touchdown in Week 1, but it ultimately got reversed as replay showed him bobbling the football a bit upon hitting the ground. He had a very underwhelming stat line in Week 1 (three receptions for 18 yards), so Cincinnati will likely look to get him more involved if Higgins misses another game. Last year, the Chiefs surrendered the fifth-least fantasy points to tight ends. On the other side of the ball, Hendrickson is the Bengals' best pass rusher and has plenty of experience teeing off against Kansas City. He's the top priority to stop.

Kansas City: LT Kingsley Suamataia, CB Jaylen Watson

For the second week in a row, Suamataia is a player to watch in this preview. The rookie left tackle had a mixed bag of production in Week 1, and things won't get much easier this weekend. His performance in both the run and pass games will help swing Sunday's contest in either direction. On defense, Watson returned to form in the season opener and might benefit from Higgins being out this week. If that's the case, his assignment suddenly drops to a combination of Andrei Iosivas and perhaps Charlie Jones or Trenton Irwin.

Week 2 score prediction: 24-20 Chiefs

After a crazy upset loss to the Patriots, I fully expect the Bengals to come back and look better in Week 2. The storyline surrounding Burrow's health (or lack thereof) seems to be overblown, and even the current Cincinnati offense is better than it showed in Week 1. On the other hand, this defense has weaknesses that are very much exploitable with the right plan. I anticipate Mahomes turning in an efficient performance, Pacheco looking like his 2023 self and this game being another borderline classic between two talented clubs. In the end, though, the Chiefs have a lot less to figure out than the road team.

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