Chiefs vs. Bills Preview: Battle of the Best as KC Eyes Win Over Buffalo in Week 11

The Kansas City Chiefs' Week 11 game against the Buffalo Bills is shaping up to be another classic. What should the champs be aware of on Sunday?

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) following the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After a pair of home games, the Kansas City Chiefs are hitting the road this weekend with their perfect record at stake. The Buffalo Bills await in Orchard Park, looking not only to give Andy Reid's team its first loss of the year but also to gain some ground in the AFC in the process.

How does Kansas City match up with Buffalo, and how could Sunday's game unfold? Let's preview Week 11 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Bills during the offseason

Gains: WR Curtis Samuel, WR Keon Coleman, WR Amari Cooper (in-season trade), DT Austin Johnson, DE Duwuane Smoot

Losses: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, C Mitch Morse, DE Leonard Floyd, DT Poona Ford, DE Shaq Lawson, CB Tre'Davious White, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer

Bills offensive breakdown: Scary, but with a twist

Despite losing several key contributors, the Bills' offense has remained one of football's better units. They're third in scoring and EPA/play entering Week 11, in addition to averaging the second-best starting field position in the sport. Joe Brady's unit is proficient in either 11 (one running back, one tight end) or 12 personnel, also ranking seventh in the red zone and tops in the NFL on fourth downs. One efficiency-related thing to watch is Buffalo's average third down offense (15th).

As expected, passing the ball is where the Bills stand out. Josh Allen is one of the game's premier signal-callers, engineering an attack that's second in EPA/pass. Even with a wideout corps that has some of the worst separation on average and ranks sixth in drop rate, Allen works alongside a solid offensive line and guides receivers to the third-most yards after catch per reception. He and Khalil Shakir are a lethal quarterback-receiver duo over halfway into the year.

The Bills' rushing attack, fueled by James Cook, is interesting. It's primarily an inside zone unit that will mix in outside zone and power, although man/duo concepts will trickle in if power isn't the flavor of choice in a given week. The Bills have increased their percentage of runs up the middle in each of their last six games, influencing a No. 2 ranking in EPA/rush. Don't let slottings of 16th in attempts and yards per attempt trick you: Buffalo can run.

Two trends to monitor: sacks and explosives. Allen's creation and athleticism once again make him one of football's greats at avoiding sacks regardless of pressure, and the Chiefs rank 26th in sacks. Elsewhere, Buffalo is 10th in explosive plays but Kansas City's defense is the sport's best at preventing them.

Bills defensive breakdown: Lost star power, gained reliability?

Like on offense, the Buffalo defense lost some big names. After shedding salary and notoriety, though, Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich's group is 11th in EPA/play with top-10 rankings on fourth down and in the red zone. They're 10th and 12th in pass and rush EPA/play, respectively, and make a living off turnovers. The Bills' +13 turnover differential is the most in the NFL by 4, and their 19 takeaways are the second-most.

Buffalo varies its coverages to a solid degree. Instead of Cover 1 (13% mark is the fifth-lowest) or Cover 3 (29% is middle of the pack), they divvy up shells elsewhere. Through 10 games, the Bills are tied for ninth or higher in the frequency of Cover 2-man (4%), Cover 2 (18%), Cover 4 (17%) and Cover 6 (10%). That, combined with the second-lowest blitz rate per dropback yet a respectable share of quarterback knockdowns, makes them difficult to prepare for.

That defense can still be had, as the Chiefs have some areas to exploit. Some of what the Bills do caters directly to Kansas City's strengths. They like to make teams work for points, being 25th in time per drive and 23rd in plays per drive. Reid and Matt Nagy's group is first in both. Buffalo is 21st in defense on third down; Kansas City is the best there. Penalties will be worth monitoring, as the Bills' defense has committed more of them than anyone.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Bills

Buffalo: TE Dawson Knox, DEs Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa

With Dalton Kincaid set to miss Sunday's game, a banged-up Bills offense will rely on Knox to get the job done. He's just a couple of years removed from a 500-plus-yard season, and he could tap back into that form against a Chiefs defense that's surrendered the most yards to opposing tight ends. On defense, both Rousseau and Epenesa have at least five sacks on the year. With Jawaan Taylor's play last week wavering and Wanya Morris battling an injury, Kansas City's tackles must be on top of their game.

Kansas City: WR Xavier Worthy, CB Nazeeh Johnson

There's no sugarcoating it: Worthy simply has to get going at some point. The Chiefs are optimistic about the signs they're seeing on film and in practice, yet the numbers aren't there on paper. Mixed looks on Sunday could keep him on his toes. On the other side, Johnson is coming off a 10-tackle game but isn't consistent in coverage. Cooper is banged up and Keon Coleman is out, so his matchup possibilities aren't as trying. He'll still need to play like a No. 2 corner, though.

Week 11 score prediction: 27-23 Bills

*Flips coin*

Recent history between these two teams tells us that the Bills win the regular-season matchups and the Chiefs win the ones in the playoffs. I'm sticking to that trend here, even with Buffalo challenging Kansas City at least a bit on the injury front. Expect another close contest here and with the AFC lead being in play, the home team secures a one-score victory. In the end, Steve Spagnuolo's defense cracks one too many times and not even Patrick Mahomes's greatness can completely overcome a worthy challenger in Week 11.

Read More: Matt Nagy Thinks ‘Time Is Coming’ for Xavier Worthy’s Greater Impact