Chiefs vs. Broncos Preview: How KC Can Take Down Division Rivals in Week 10

The Kansas City Chiefs are heavy favorites to defeat the Denver Broncos in Week 10. How can they work to justify that hype on Sunday afternoon?

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) warms up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are back at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for another game, squaring off against their AFC West rivals as the 5-4 Denver Broncos come rolling into town this weekend.

How does Kansas City match up with Denver, and how could Sunday's game unfold? Let's preview Week 10 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Broncos during the offseason

Gains: S Brandon Jones, WR Josh Reynolds, DL Malcolm Roach, DL John Franklin-Myers, LB Cody Barton, QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, DE Jonah Elliss

Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, C Lloyd Cushenberry, DL Jonathan Harris, LB Josey Jewell, CB Fabian Moreau, S Justin Simmons

Broncos offensive breakdown: Will Bo Nix show up for Week 10?

The Broncos shook things up during the offseason when they parted ways with Russell Wilson. It's the Bo Nix era for Sean Payton and company, although the results have been less than ideal offensively. Through nine games, Denver ranks 25th in points per drive, 26th in series conversion rate and is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to explosive plays. They struggle with situational football, too, ranking 27th on third downs and 21st in the red zone. Despite Payton being known for his innovative nature, the offense is dead last in motion rate.

Nix is an interesting, yet confusing young quarterback. Since being praised as an NFL-ready signal-caller who could execute a simple system, all he's done is scramble more than all but one quarterback and push the ball 20-plus yards downfield more than all but four of them. Nix benefits from respectable protection, fueling his No. 9 ranking in intended air pards per throw. But even in a scheme that targets quick outs, hitches and screens, he misses plenty of tries and strugles immensely against man coverage. As a result, the Broncos are a bottom-five team in passing EPA and passing success rate.

Things improve when shifting to the run game, but not by a whole lot. The Broncos are an average rushing offense in terms of EPA, overall yardage and yards per attempt. Javonte Williams doesn't generate a ton of yards before or after contact, which is a testament to a balanced approach. Denver's primary runs are either inside or outside zone, with a proclivity for going behind right guard Quinn Meinerz or center Alex Forsyth. One thing to monitor with Williams is his involvement as a receiver, as he's tied for fifth among all halfbacks in targets.

Personnel-wise, the Broncos are a middle-tier team in usage and effectiveness of 11 (one running back, one tight end). When shifting to 12 or 21 personnel, however, they're one of the 10 best clubs in the sport. The latter is the matchup to watch; Denver goes to sets with two running backs the eighth-most in the NFL and is ninth in EPA/play.

Broncos defensive breakdown: A legitimate test for the Chiefs

Under Vance Joseph, the Broncos' defense has been quite impressive this year. Holding top-three marks in EPA and explosive play rate, they make offenses earn their keep. They're also eighth in the red zone, adding more validity to their outlook. Run defense is a relative strong suit – Denver is surrendering the fifth-lowest yards/attempt while being 10th in EPA/rush.

The passing game is where things could get fun this weekend. The Broncos' secondary is led by All-Pro Patrick Surtain II, who is contributing to a unit that's giving up the second-lowest EPA/pass in the sport. Denver isn't afraid to trust its players, as evidenced by top-six slottings in man coverage (37%) and single-high (59%) usage. Joseph's crew spends roughly half of its time in Cover 1 but will mix in some Cover 2 (zone or man) and Cover 3 as needed. The pass rush, while unspectacular, could give the Chiefs some trouble. Denver is good at stunts and uses them often – an Achilles heel of Andy Heck's offensive line – also being fifth in quarterback knockdown rate.

A few other matchup-specific things to keep an eye on are the Broncos' tendency to blitz (36%, third in football), their third down defense (16th) and their discipline (third-most penalties). The first two elements are clear-cut things a Patrick Mahomes offense could take advantage of, and extending Kansas City drives is a terrible idea considering their success rates.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Broncos

Denver: WRs Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Troy Franklin, DE Nik Bonitto

Without Jaylen Watson in the fold, Kansas City's defense is set to rely on one of Nazeeh Johnson or Joshua Williams to cover the Broncos' No. 2 boundary receiver. With Humphrey and Franklin sometimes splitting work from the slot or outside, they're both worth monitoring this weekend. On the other side of the ball, Bonitto has six sacks already and is a legitimate pass-rush specialist to account for.

Kansas City: TE Travis Kelce, S Bryan Cook

The Broncos don't shy away from a man-heavy approach, so it's worth questioning whether this will be another big-time Kelce game. He's been thriving at finding soft spots in zones lately; Sunday could be a test for his true readiness for a playoff-level defense. Keeping it on the track of matchups, Nix being an aggressive downfield passer could make Steve Spagnuolo and Co. lean on Cook more if he's the help defender in the Chiefs' looks. That's especially the case given the second cornerback situation.

Week 10 score prediction: 24-13 Chiefs

If the Chiefs can simply avoid shooting themselves in the foot on offense, they should be able to handle what is a middling Broncos team. Denver doesn't have the firepower to succeed against a good defense and while the other side of the ball is admittedly great, they play directly into the preferences of Kansas City in multiple aspects. Although there's a path to the Broncos pulling off an upset, it'd likely have more to do with the home team playing a sloppy game than the visitors turning in an elite performance. Give me the Chiefs to rise to 9-0 with a divisional victory.

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