Chiefs vs. Browns Preview: How KC Can Avoid Week 15 Upset in Cleveland

Although the Cleveland Browns are 3-10 on the year, that doesn't mean the Kansas City Chiefs should take them lightly in Week 15.

Aug 26, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) talks with players on the sidelines against the Cleveland Browns during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

After consecutive home games, the Kansas City Chiefs are hitting the road in Week 15. On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns will meet them in a matchup between the current one-seed in the AFC and one of the lowest-ranking clubs in the conference.

How does Kansas City match up with Cleveland, and how could Sunday afternoon's game unfold? Let's preview Week 15 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Browns during the offseason

Gains: WR Jerry Jeudy, LB Jordan Hicks, QB Jameis Winston, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Devin Bush

Losses: TE Harrison Bryant, OT Geron Christian, QB Joe Flacco, DE Lonnie Phelps, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Matthew Adams, WR Amari Cooper (in-season trade)

Browns offensive breakdown: A struggling unit, albeit with an intriguing quarterback

Despite having Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey at the helm, the Browns' offense has been one of the worst in the sport for months. That's even considering the switch from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston (more on that later) due to injury. Cleveland currently has the lowest percentage of drives that reach the red zone, also posting the lowest share of possessions ending in a score. They're 29th in EPA, 29th in turnovers, 31st in explosive play rate and dead last at executing on late downs. Cleveland won't scare anyone with its offense that loves having one tight end (no. 6 in 11 personnel usage) or no tight ends (No. 2 in 10 personnel percentage) on the field.

There is at least something to account for, though, with Winston on the field. A true gunslinger, he ranks fourth in average throws at or past the first down marker. Additionally, the former No. 1 overall pick posts some of football's best numbers when outside the pocket or scrambling. The Browns have the highest pass rate in the NFL despite being 32nd in dropback EPA on the year (and 27th since Week 8 with Winston). They don't do the turnover-prone Winston many favors. Cleveland's pass catchers have dropped more throws than anyone in the sport and rank 27th in post-catch EPA. A well-respected offensive line also ranks second in highest pressure rate.

Running the football doesn't help a ton. The Browns post the fifth-lowest rush success rate there, ranking 25th in EPA but 22nd since Winston took over. That, combined with the worst yards-after-contact average and the third-fewest broken tackles forced, spotlights a rushing attack that's anything but dynamic. Cleveland even struggles to execute its basic concepts like inside and outside zone.

Browns defensive breakdown: Good, but not quite great

There's no denying that in year No. 2 with Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator, Cleveland has taken a step back. After all, they give up more explosive plays than all but one team and rank 21st in yards and 26th in scoring. They're also outside the top 10 on third down and in the red zone. A No. 14 ranking in EPA/play should cap everything off, but it's worth arguing that there's more to this defense than it seems on the surface.

Because the Browns' offense is so bad, it naturally puts the defense on the field more often. Per-drive rankings for points (11th), yards (fifth), time (second) and plays (first) reflect a way more positive light upon Schwartz's group. Not only that, but Cleveland is fourth in series conversion rate and leads the sport in tackles for loss. Giving up big plays and being middling against the run (20th in per-rush yardage, 11th in EPA) are issues, but this definitely isn't a bad defense.

Under Schwartz, the Browns' go-to coverage is Cover 1. They opt for that 32% of the time, which is a top-three mark. Aside from that, they mix in some Cover 3 (16%) but avoid staples like Cover 4 (8%), Cover 6 (5%) and Cover 2-man (0%). Although Cleveland surrenders the most yards per completion in the NFL and ranks 19th in EPA against the pass, they can flat-out get after the quarterback. They're sixth in knockdown rate, fifth in hurry rate and are a top-two defense regardless of whether they use a stunt (they do so frequently).

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Browns

Cleveland: WR Jerry Jeudy, DE Myles Garrett

Entering the season, I'd argue that next to no one had Jerry Jeudy being a top-five receiving yards leader on their bingo cards. The former first-round pick is defying the odds, though, and his run is fueled by averaging 113 yards per game since Winston became the starter. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs seem well aware of what Garrett can do to wreck a game. With D.J. Humphries missing Week 15, that becomes an even more pressing issue to account for.

Kansas City: LT starter, LB Nick Bolton

Speaking of which, Kansas City must have a thorough and logical left tackle plan for Sunday. Whether it's Joe Thuney sliding over and Mike Caliendo taking his spot or Wanya Morris getting another shot, Garrett primarily lines up over the left tackle. That is hands-down the matchup to watch. On defense, Bolton could benefit from facing a passing attack that doesn't generate a ton of big plays (despite trying to) and not having much to compete with versus the run. This is shaping up for a big-time weekend for him.

Week 15 score prediction: 27-17 Chiefs

The Browns present the Chiefs with some opportunities to do things they don't normally achieve. On offense, expect rookie wideout Xavier Worthy to be tried on a deep passing play or two. Elsewhere, Winston and Jeudy might connect on some highlight plays but this could be a week that Steve Spagnuolo's unit finally generates some turnovers. Although the spread for this game is closer than expected, the visitors cover easily and roll to 13-1 on the season.

Read More: Andy Reid on Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown's Return to Chiefs Practice, Week 15 Status