Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Preview: Any Danger of Home Upset for KC in Week 9?

The Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favored over a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers team in Week 9. Is that the right way to view Monday's game?

Oct 2, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

For the first time in nearly a month, the Kansas City Chiefs are set to play a home game in front of their own crowd at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. They also get the best of both worlds, as it's a prime-time matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the Monday Night Football stage.

Tampa Bay, off to a 4-4 start to this season, is right in the thick of the NFC South race but is coming off a close loss to the first-place Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. Kansas City, on the other hand, took down a division rival of its own on Sunday en route to its seventh victory in a row to open the 2024-25 campaign. Injuries will certainly impact this meeting (more on that later) but nonetheless, it should be an intriguing interconference battle.

How does Kansas City match up with Tampa Bay, and how could Monday night's game unfold? Let's preview Week 9 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Buccaneers during the offseason

Gains: S Jordan Whitehead, G Ben Bredeson, WR Sterling Shepard, CB Tavierre Thomas, C Graham Barton, S Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan, RB Bucky Irving

Losses: LB Shaq Barrett, WR Russell Gage, LB Randy Gregory, LB Devin White, G Matt Feiler

Buccaneers offensive breakdown: Very fun, but for how much longer?

Despite losing Dave Canales to a head coaching job, the Buccaneers' offense largely hasn't skipped a beat with Liam Coen at the helm. They rank fourth in both yards and points while being fifth in EPA per play and third in success rate. Tampa Bay creates explosive plays at the eighth-highest rate in the sport and is excellent on third downs (best in the league) and in the red zone (third). Overall, their efficiency is unmatched by many NFL clubs.

Schematically, Tampa Bay deploys 11 personnel (one running back and one tight end) 81% of the time. That's the third-highest figure in the league, yielding the No. 11 EPA/play. They're seventh in efficiency in 12 personnel but use it the fifth least, which is puzzling. A smidge of 21 personnel gets thrown in (5%) to the third overall EPA average.

Rushing the ball, the Buccaneers are quite effective at counter and inside zone. Last week against the Falcons, they cut outside zone to a season-low rate and mixed in more trap and power concepts. The club is more than capable, ranking seventh in success rate and seventh in EPA per run. As Irving continues to nurse a toe injury, keep an eye on how the splits between him and Rachaad White are divvied up.

Throwing the football is where Coen and crew make their money. The Baker Mayfield-led unit ranks eighth in EPA per pass and despite being blitzed at the fourth-biggest clip, his offensive line ranks best in pressure rate. Mayfield is good when kept clean and when facing disguised coverages, highlighting his progress as a passer. The elephant in the room, however, is the injury report at wide receiver. Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (and potentially Shepard), it's worth questioning just how long the Buccaneers can remain a great passing team. The aforementioned Atlanta game saw them implement hitches at a season-high 24% rate on targets, which is worth monitoring. Also watch out for extensions like play-action (No. 5 in usage), screens and more.

Buccaneers defensive breakdown: Struggling to start 2024 season

For as good as Tampa Bay's offense has been, the defense has struggled just as much. They're a bottom-five team in points (28th), total yards (30th) and passing yards (29th), also not being far off in passing touchdowns (27th) and points per drive (27th). Ranking 24th in EPA/play doesn't make matters look much better. Pass coverage is a weak spot, as per-rush effectiveness (5.2 opposing yards per carry).

In terms of coverage, head coach Todd Bowles and company are keeping things somewhat simple. They don't use Cover 1 (10%) much at all, nor is Cover 2 (17%) their forte. Instead, the Buccaneers are a top-10 team when it comes to Cover 3 (42%) and Cover 4 (19%). That might frustrate a Chiefs offense that routinely fails to break off chunk plays but with that said, short and intermediate areas might be more open than usual. That plays directly to Kansas City's tendencies.

Look for Patrick Mahomes to get the ball out of his hands quickly and let his pass catchers do the work. Tampa Bay gives up the third-most yards after the catch in the NFL. They also rank sixth in blitz rate and although their pressure numbers don't necessarily reflect that, Bowles and Co. enjoy forcing opposing signal-callers into rushed decisions. With Mahomes notoriously being great against the blitz, something's got to give.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Tampa Bay: TE Cade Otton, S Antoine Winfield Jr.

With multiple key receiving options missing Week 9 (and beyond), expect Otton to continue building. He has 17 receptions for 181 yards and a pair of scores in his last two outings. Facing a Chiefs defense that has given up the second-most receptions (49) and yards (566) to opposing tight ends, that's a mismatch. On defense, Winfield is one of the best leaders in the sport and has 19 tackles and an interception in three career games (including playoffs) against Kansas City. He's the man to watch in the Tampa Bay secondary.

Kansas City: WR Xavier Worthy, LB Leo Chenal

The more the Chiefs allow Worthy to do traditional wide receiver things, the more he seems to fall short. The rookie is still a very dynamic weapon on offense, but Kansas City's attempts to have him beat man coverage or burn defenses down the field have yet to fully pay off. On the flip side of the ball, Chenal is usually a bigger factor against clubs that deploy heavy personnel. With the Buccaneers relying so much on those 11 sets, could his impact be minimized? On the other hand, having fewer high-profile wideouts could force Tampa Bay to change their stripes a bit.

Week 9 score prediction: 27-21 Chiefs

It's a shame that Evans and Godwin won't be available. If they were, it would have the makings of a potential thriller. We have to live in reality, though, and that paints a picture of the Kansas City offense taking advantage of a porous Buccaneers defense and not earning many style points but still doing enough for a win. Mayfield's 2024 season has been quite impressive but against Steve Spagnuolo, he might struggle given the circumstances he's dealt. The Chiefs don't cover the spread in this prediction, yet they rise to 8-0 with a win nonetheless.

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