Chiefs vs. Panthers Preview: Any Hidden Danger for KC in Week 12 Matchup?

The Kansas City Chiefs are hitting the road for Week 12. What should they be accounting for when they take on the Panthers on Sunday?

Nov 8, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) on the sidelines during the game against the Carolina Panthers at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Coming off their first loss of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are once again hitting the road and will be looking to bounce back on Sunday. For the reigning Super Bowl champions, a 3-7 Carolina Panthers team that's won two games in a row stands in their way.

How does Kansas City match up with Carolina, and how could Sunday's game unfold? Let's preview Week 12 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Panthers during the offseason

Gains: WR Diontae Johnson (since traded), OG Robert Hunt, OL Yosh Nijman, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, DL A'Shawn Robinson, LB Josey Jewell, CB Dane Jackson, S Nick Scott

Losses: WR DJ Chark, WR Laviska Shenault, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, EDGE Brian Burns, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, LB Deion Jones, S Vonn Bell, S Jeremy Chinn

Panthers offensive breakdown: An improved Bryce Young, but by how much?

In year No. 1 with head coach Dave Canales at the helm, Carolina hasn't done much on offense. After starting the year with Bryce Young, switching to Andy Dalton and now going back to Young, the result is a bottom-three ranking in EPA/play, time per drive, plays per drive and yards per drive. Being fifth in the red zone is a very nice surprise, yet it doesn't matter a ton considering how limited those opportunities seem to be.

The Panthers, predictably, are dead last in EPA/pass and have the fourth-worst bad pass rate in the sport. Young struggled immensely to open the year (especially against disguised coverages) and while he's improved upon returning for three straight starts, the former No. 1 overall pick's -0.029 EPA/play and 40.4% success rate since Week 8 remain rough to look at. Canales and Co. don't do much to help him, though, as Carolina uses motion sparingly and its pass catchers post the second-lowest yards after catch average in football.

Things look better when switching to the rushing attack. Chuba Hubbard and the rest of the Panthers' backfield rank 14th in EPA/rush and 10th in yards per attempt (including a No. 6 ranking in yards before contact per rush). Carolina is primarily an inside zone rushing team with plenty of man/duo splits mixed in. Outside zone occupies a podium spot in terms of preference. While the occasional wideout run is thrown in, the top three serve as their bread and butter.

Schematically, Carolina goes to 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) the eighth-most in the NFL to the tune of a 16th ranking in EPA. Usage of 12 (15%, 24th) and 21 (3.5%, 13th) personnel isn't as high and produces results of 20th or worse in EPA average. One thing Kansas City could really look to attack is on third and fourth downs. Those situations have been tricky for the Chiefs to stop recently, but Carolina ranks 30th in late down success rate on offense.

Panthers defensive breakdown: Setting up for a Chiefs field day

Let's just cut to the chase: Carolina's defense is quite possibly the worst in football. It ranks 30th or worst in EPA/play, points per drive and more. Ejiro Evero is respected around the league and isn't totally to blame here, especially considering his pedigree, but this unit is struggling big-time.

According to Football Insights, the Panthers live in Cover 3 (45% is tied for first) and Cover 6 (12% is tied for fifth). They practically ignore dominant non-Cover-6 two-high shells like Cover 2 (8%, 30th) and Cover 4 (8%, T-29th) and aren't too fond of Cover 1 (20%), either. That, combined with a dead-last ranking in pressure rate and quarterback knockdowns, doesn't make life difficult for opposing signal-callers.

Unfortunately for Carolina, they also give up more rushing yards than any other team. That's paired with a No. 29 slotting in rush EPA. There isn't much to hang a hat on defensively when it comes to this team.

Similar to the Panthers' offense versus the Chiefs' defense, third downs could be a swing factor for the inverse of both teams. Entering Week 12, Kansas City boasts the NFL's top offense in those scenarios and Carolina has its worst defense. This is setting up for Patrick Mahomes and company to have a bunch of long drives if not stopped on first or second down.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Panthers

Carolina: WR Adam Thielen, LB Josey Jewell

While he was a limited participant in practice all week, it's expected that Thielen (hamstring) will make his return to the lineup this weekend. If that's the case, Kansas City will have to account for a crafty veteran wideout who went over the 1,000-yard receiving mark just one year ago. On the other side of the ball, all Jewell had known in his career prior to this season was facing Mahomes. As a longtime member of the Denver Broncos, he has four passes broken up and a pair of interceptions against Mahomes in just the last couple of years.

Kansas City: RB Kareem Hunt, DE Joshua Uche

After topping the 20-carry mark for four games in a row, Hunt has logged just 14 in each of his last two contests. With Isiah Pacheco missing one more game, though, this could be the final opportunity Hunt has to shine as the Chiefs' clear-cut lead halfback. On defense, Uche hasn't played as much as many expected but the team plans to get him more involved moving forward. Carolina's offense and front line present a good matchup for him to exploit.

Week 12 score prediction: 24-10 Chiefs

The Panthers seem to be a better team than they were a month ago, and the Chiefs aren't exactly thriving right now. There's a world where this game is tough, especially with Kansas City being on the road. With that said, there are simply too many trends favoring the reigning champs. Expect Mahomes to lead an efficient offense to a good share of third down conversions, and look for Spagnuolo's unit to turn in a much better performance this time around. It won't be the blowout of the year, yet the Chiefs should win comfortably regardless.

Read More: Eventual Return of Isiah Pacheco Poised to Give Chiefs a ‘Good Problem’ on Offense