Chiefs vs. Ravens Preview: How KC Can Attack Baltimore in Week 1 Matchup

The Kansas City Chiefs will have their hands full to kick off the season, as there's plenty to account for when the Baltimore Ravens come to town.

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) prepares to throw the ball as Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) defends during the first half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports / geoff burke-usa today sports

The Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2024-25 campaign against the Baltimore Ravens in an outing that serves as a regular-season rematch of the AFC Championship Game.

When John Harbaugh and Co. come to town on Thursday, how can Andy Reid's team slow them down? Let's preview the matchup and outline everything there is to know about the Chiefs' Week 1 opponent.

Notable player changes for Ravens during the offseason

Gains: RB Derrick Henry, S Eddie Jackson, CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten

Losses: WR Odell Beckham Jr., RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, OG Kevin Zeitler, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Ronald Darby, LB Patrick Queen, S Geno Stone

Ravens offensive breakdown: Containing Lamar Jackson and an elite rushing attack

Baltimore likes to do a lot of its passing damage on short and simple concepts at all three horizontal areas of the field under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. It's an RPO-heavy system that doesn't utilize much of the play-action pass. Hitch routes were the Ravens' go-to in 2023, slotting in at just over 20% according to NFLsavant. Nearly three-quarters of their offensive plays were from the shotgun, yielding success regardless of run or pass. While quarterback Lamar Jackson feasted against Cover 2, Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells, one weakness can be exploited.

Arjun Menon and Alex Feazelle's excellent tracking data from last season reveals that Jackson faced Cover 0 on just 4.5% of his dropbacks but posted a ghastly -0.43 EPA/play average. That was the second-worst mark in all of football. Steve Spagnuolo's Chiefs defense was awesome on Cover 0 looks, surrendering -0.31 EPA/play and a completion rate below 50%. If you're looking for a clear advantage for Kansas City's side, that's the one.

Don't get it twisted, though. The Ravens' formula remains run, run, then run again. Their players averaged the second-most average yards before contact last season, also ranking second in broken tackles forced. They were football's most effective rushing offense by many measures. That, combined with 73 logged Jackson scrambles and a No. 5 ranking in early-down EPA/play, shows their intent.

Per SumerSports, Baltimore held top-five marks for 20-personnel (two running backs, no tight ends) and 21-personnel usage and efficiency. Adding Henry (1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground last season) makes the task of stopping the Ravens' ground game even more daunting.

Ravens defensive breakdown: Exploiting a great unit that lost plenty of pieces

If the Chiefs' defense was the NFL's best a year ago, Baltimore's wasn't too far behind. Under Mike Macdonald, the Ravens held top-six rankings in points and yards allowed while also dominating against the pass. Finishing first in sacks, the conference runner-up had stoppers at all three levels of the field and thrived for most of the year.

With playmakers waiting at each section (Nnamdi Madubuike up front, Roquan Smith and Kyle Van Noy at linebacker and Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary), the 2024 Ravens defense will remain quite formidable.

On the other hand, Macdonald and coaches Anthony Weaver (defensive line) and Dennard Wilson (defensive backs) leaving is noteworthy. The Zach Orr era starts with a tough shake. In addition to losing sideline leaders, Baltimore is without several nice on-field pieces from a season ago. Without as much pure talent on this year's unit, it'll be hard to remain as effective against the pass (-0.15 EPA/play, fourth-best explosive pass rate) or in sub-package looks (No. 1 EPA/play in both nickel and dime sets).

Ironically, Cover 0 could be the key here as well. Baltimore went to it a limited number of times last season, but they ranked right around average in effectiveness in that sample size. Contrastly, Patrick Mahomes was tied with Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen by posting a scorching 0.74 EPA/play against such looks. Elsewhere, the Chiefs may benefit from running the ball a bit more, as the Ravens gave up lots of chunk rushes in 2023-24.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Ravens

Baltimore: WR Zay Flowers, OLB Odafe Oweh

Flowers justified his first-round draft status as a rookie, hauling in 77 passes for 858 yards and five touchdowns. An explosive playmaker and YAC target, it will be interesting to see how Kansas City opts to slow him down. On the other side of the ball, Oweh is also a former first-round pick who tied his career-high mark with five sacks a season ago. With his fifth-year option exercised, he'll be motivated to start year No. 4 with a bang and get momentum going.

Kansas City: LT Kingsley Suamataia, LB Nick Bolton

Every NFL player's debut is a core memory, but the stakes for a first game don't get much higher than they are for Suamataia. While the Chiefs are confident in his ability to start the season on a high note, he faces a tall task in stopping Baltimore's defensive line. On defense, it's worth watching how limited – if at all – Bolton is as he returns from an elbow injury. As the leader of Spagnuolo's unit, the former Missouri standout faces a ton of pressure entering a contract year.

Week 1 score prediction: 27-21

Last year, I picked the Detroit Lions to spoil banner night in Kansas City. Although it's worth arguing that this Ravens squad is an even tougher matchup, I'm rolling with the Chiefs. Mahomes plays his best when the lights are the brightest, and an AFC Championship Rematch constitutes that. Jackson is an excellent quarterback and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Baltimore won this game, but the new-look Chiefs offense figures to shine even without Marquise "Hollywood" Brown. Kansas City opens the season 1-0 and begins its title defense with a key victory over a conference opponent.

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