Chiefs vs. Saints Preview: Can KC Avoid Week 5 Upset at Home?

The Kansas City Chiefs are back at home to host the New Orleans Saints in Week 5, but there could be a challenge waiting on the "Monday Night Football" stage.

Aug 13, 2023; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (90) misses the tackle on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the first half at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are back in action in Week 5, and they'll be taking the Monday Night Football stage against a very talented opponent in interconference play.

With the New Orleans Saints getting off to a 2-2 start to the year, the stakes are high for Dennis Allen and company. The NFC South race is truly heating up as we move past the opening stage of the year, as a win over Kansas City would result in a three-way tie atop the division. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are building a commanding lead in the AFC West but need a victory at home to keep their perfect record intact.

How does Kansas City match up with New Orleans, and how could Monday night's game unfold? Let's preview Week 5 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Saints during the offseason

Gains: WR Cedrick Wilson, OL Taliese Fuaga, QB Spencer Rattler, DE Chase Young, LB Willie Gay, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, DB Will Harris

Losses: OL Cameron Erving, TE Jimmy Graham, OL Andrus Peat, WR Michael Thomas, QB Jameis Winston, LB Zack Baun, CB Lonnie Johnson, S Marcus Maye

Saints offensive breakdown: Which version is the real one?

For the first time in over a decade, the New Orleans offense looks different. With Pete Carmichael out after a tenure from 2009-2023, Klint Kubiak brings his Kyle Shanahan influence to the Saints and gives them more of a West Coast feel on offense. Pre-snap motion has been the biggest noticeable difference, with them going from essentially ignoring it to implementing it at the ninth-highest clip in football. Kubiak's unit gets the NFL's best average starting field position and ranks fifth in EPA per play, second on third downs and second in the red zone. That's a lethal combination.

Quarterback Derek Carr is leading the Saints to an efficient passing attack. New Orleans is 21st in neutral pass rate but when they do commit, Carr is excellent and can get it done against single-high or two-high coverage shells. The Saints' offense lives out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends), 21 personnel and 22 personnel and holds top-seven efficiency rankings in each. Wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a lot to account for.

While the Saints are effective when running the ball (fifth in EPA/play and success rate), forcing them to stay on the ground might be the Chiefs' best chance. New Orleans is 19th in early-down EPA/play and is 25th in early-down rush EPA/play. With a huge chunk of their carries either going to the end or right behind a tackle, this will put a ton of stress on players like George Karlaftis, Mike Danna (if active) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah to be disciplined. Saints running back Alvin Kamara has enjoyed a terrific start.

Saints defensive breakdown: An opportunistic, but gettable unit

Capitalizing is the name of the game for Allen and Joe Woods' defense. Through four games, the Saints are third in takeaways and possess the NFL's best red zone defense (while letting opponents get there at the third-lowest rate). Ranking fourth in dropback EPA/play and 12th in rush EPA, it's a thorough unit that does a very decent job. Defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd, individually, has dominated. A No. 23 ranking in team pass rush win rate could be exploited, however.

New Orleans spends a good chunk of their defense in Cover 1 or Cover 2. Combining for 51% of their defensive snaps, those individual splits rank sixth and seventh, respectively, in football. Elsewhere, expect to see some single-high Cover 3 (22%) and a bit of quarters (14%) or Cover 6 (7%) mixed in to help prevent big plays. The Saints don't dabble much in Cover 0 or Cover 2-man.

Two specific scheme-related matchups could swing the outcome of this game. New Orleans has been tested down the field quite a bit this season; a 9.17-yard average depth of target ranks third. Patrick Mahomes, on the other hand, is throwing a league-high 35.5% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Secondly, it's well-documented how much the Chiefs love getting multiple tight ends on the field. New Orleans faces 12 personnel the fourth-least in football but has the second-best EPA/play against it (-0.34). That sample size will surely grow on Monday.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Saints

New Orleans: RB Alvin Kamara, S Tyrann Mathieu

Kamara is averaging far and away the highest per-game rushing yardage total of his career at 90.5. That's coincided with a decline in usage as a receiver, but he's averaging 10.2 yards per catch for the first time since his rookie year in 2017. Kamara leads the NFL in touches, scrimmage yards and touchdowns through four games and is a must-stop player. On the other side, Mathieu remains one of the NFL's premier playmakers even at the age of 32. With Mahomes growing more and more turnover-prone, the 'Honey Badger' will be lurking. Mathieu respects the Kansas City offense and especially Travis Kelce, but his familiarity with the Chiefs might come in handy.

Kansas City: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, CB Trent McDuffie

With Rashee Rice missing this week's game, who will the Chiefs rely on to replace those snaps? Mahomes seemed to single out JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson. The former has underwhelmed this year but does have a touchdown already and makes sense to soak up some of Rice's usage in the short and intermediate areas of the field. On defense, McDuffie will have his hands full with yet another talented matchup. Olave is quick, decisive and super reliable. He gets open with ease, so McDuffie will need to be at the top of his game.

Week 5 score prediction: 23-21 Chiefs

Let's get this out of the way: Kansas City can absolutely be on upset alert here. It wouldn't surprise me one bit, especially given this new-look New Orleans offense and how solid their defense has looked. With that said, it's hard to pick against the Chiefs until they show a real reason to. Rice's injury could prove to be too much to overcome. If so, a lesson will have been learned. Until then, though, let's keep rolling with one of two undefeated NFL teams in yet another one-score victory.

Read More: Chiefs Rookie Carson Steele Ready to Move Past Early-Season Fumble Woes