Chiefs vs. Texans Preview: Quality Test for KC Against AFC Playoff Opponent

The Kansas City Chiefs are at home for a Week 16 matchup with the Houston Texans, and both AFC playoff clubs will be looking to handle business on Saturday.

Dec 18, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs out of the end zone after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are back at home this weekend, and there's a battle with the Houston Texans on the docket. At this late stage of the regular season, it's a meeting between two AFC clubs that have already clinched postseason spots.

How does Kansas City match up with Houston, and how could Saturday afternoon's game unfold? Let's preview Week 16 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Texans during the offseason

Gains: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Joe Mixon, DE Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DL Denico Autry, CB Jeff Okudah, P Tommy Townsend, CB Mike Ford, DT Folorunso Fatukasi

Losses: DT Maliek Collins, S Adrian Amos, LB Blake Cashman, OL Michael Deiter, OT George Fant, DE Jonathan Greenard, S Kareem Jackson, CB Steven Nelson, LB Denzel Perryman, RB Devin Singletary

Texans offensive breakdown: Surprisingly not scary?

In year No. 2 with DeMeco Ryans at head coach and Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator, the Texans find themselves in roughly the same position they were a year ago. They're a solid playoff team but over the course of 14 games, they have yet to showcase something resembling a championship contender. A lot of that is due to a lackluster offense that ranks 30th in success rate and not much better in series conversion rate (25th), explosive play rate (23rd), EPA/play (22nd) or yards per drive (22nd). Even a No. 17 ranking in points per drive is nothing to write home about, nor are middling standings on third down (20th) or in the red zone (18th).

The passing game is a major culprit. Former top draft pick C.J. Stroud has regressed as a sophomore, leading a unit that is 19th in EPA per pass. That's in no way thanks to an offensive line that gives up more blown up plays than any unit. Stroud is blitzed at the fifth-highest clip in the league and combined with the No. 1 pressure rate faced, he has a poor 78.0 passer rating when under pressure. Having wide receiver Nico Collins healthy again has helped – that duo has the second-most yards on throws 10-plus yards down the field since Week 1 of last season, per NFL Pro data – but is merely masking the poor offensive line play and Stroud not making a leap.

Running back Joe Mixon has been better than he was a season ago with the Cincinnati Bengals, but not enough to transform Houston's rushing attack. They still rank 18th in yards per attempt and look much worse on a per-rush EPA (28th) or success rate (31st) basis. Despite that, look for Slowik and Co. to use 12-personnel (one running back, two tight ends) for heavy sets on runs and passes this weekend. Houston ranks second in usage there.

Texans defensive breakdown: A well-coached and thorough unit

For as unimpressive as the Texans' offense has been, their defense is attempting to make up for it. This is a top-10 group in some areas, including scoring (eighth in points per drive). That supremacy jumps to top five for metrics like yardage per drive (first), turnovers (second), series conversion rate (second) and EPA/play (third).

Pass defense is the name of Houston's game, featuring usage of Cover 4 and Cover 6 specifically. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke's unit is first in passing success rate and second in EPA/pass with players like Eric Murray, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter roaming the secondary. That group helps surrender the lowest wide-open target share (18.5%) in the sport. The Texans' run defense is also very good, sitting between ninth and 12th in a multitude of categories.

A couple of defense-versus-offense matchups to look for are how Houston fares versus Kansas City on third downs and in the red zone. The Texans rank fourth in the former scenarios to the Chiefs' first, and their red zone defense (28th) is a tick worse than the Chiefs' red zone offense (26th). Additionally, watch for motion. The Chiefs thrive on it, but Houston gives up the second-lowest yard-per-play average against it.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Texans

Houston: WR Tank Dell, DE Danielle Hunter

With John Metchie III set to miss Week 16's game, look for Dell to be relied upon more. The second-year man spends over 70% of his time out wide despite being a small player, and he'll face a physical test with Joshua Williams waiting for him on Saturday. Defensively, there haven't been many better players than Hunter this year. He's a flat-out disruptor who breaks plays and has a tremendous time-to-pressure ratio. Jawaan Taylor figures to be his primary matchup.

Kansas City: WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, CB Christian Roland-Wallace

After months of recovering from a sternoclavicular injury, Brown is set to make his regular-season debut on Saturday. How much he plays, as well as the quality of his reps and how comfortable he looks, is worth keeping an eye on. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City will be without nickel defensive back Chamarri Conner (concussion) in Week 16. Roland-Wallace, a rookie corner, might just get the first crack at replacing him if it isn't All-Pro Trent McDuffie doing it.

Week 16 score prediction: 24-20 Chiefs

Even with Brown back in the fold, I don't expect a hobbled Patrick Mahomes to lead the Chiefs' offense to a high-scoring output. Houston's defense is too good for that. With that said, this could be another very solid week for Steve Spagnuolo's defense given the lack of sustainable success the Texans have. Aside from an occasional pop or two from Collins, look for Stroud to be under duress all afternoon but still have just enough moxie to keep things somewhat close in the end. Kansas City ever-so-slightly covers the spread in Week 16.

Read More: Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown’s Return Can Help the Chiefs in More Ways Than One