Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans: Week 16 Preview, Score Predictions

How will the Kansas City Chiefs fare when they host the Houston Texans in Week 16? Let's predict KC's 15th outing of the 2024 season.

Dec 18, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in action during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Returning home for Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs have a potential playoff preview on their hands as they square off against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

How will the game unfold? The Kansas City Chiefs On SI crew makes its predictions for Week 16 of the 2024-25 campaign.

Joshua Brisco: The Chiefs’ defense seems well-suited to pick on some of the flaws that C.J. Stroud has shown in his sophomore season, and Kansas City’s four-man pass rush has improved significantly with Charles Omenihu on the field. The Chiefs’ offense…who knows? In a season with his own share of misfires and misfortune, Patrick Mahomes will take on Houston six days after suffering his high-ankle sprain. Hollywood Brown’s return is exciting, but he could play almost any number of snaps and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising. Ultimately, I expect the Chiefs to win yet another narrow game, largely reliant on a strong defensive performance.

Prediction: Chiefs 17, Texans 16

Jordan Foote: In a matchup between two AFC playoff teams, don't expect either side to dominate the other. Kansas City is banged up on the offensive side of the ball and while Marquise "Hollywood" Brown's return will help, the ceiling of this unit still doesn't seem too crazy. On defense, Steve Spagnuolo is a perfect match for how Houston operates (or fails to). Expect plenty of pressure from Chris Jones and company on Saturday afternoon, helping bring the Chiefs their 14th win of the season and a covering of the spread.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 20

Zack Eisen: The return of Hollywood Brown bodes well for the offense this week and moving forward, but the key will be protecting Mahomes. D.J. Humphries will miss this game, so it likely means that Joe Thuney gets the nod again at left tackle. Getting the run game going and the quick passing game will be keys to protecting this makeshift offensive line and Mahomes. As for the defense, Houston's offense has struggled against the blitz all season. This would be a good week for the Chiefs defense’s blitz to get back on track. With the one-seed in their sights, I expect Kansas City to come out with a win before their short Christmas turnaround.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 16

Mark Van Sickle: The Chiefs covered the spread last week. It was an early Christmas miracle! This week, the spread has been all over the place due to some speculation about quarterback Patrick Mahomes’s health. Hollywood Brown is going to make his regular-season debut. DeAndre Hopkins is playing his old team. Travis Kelce still needs one more score to break the Chiefs' all-time receiving touchdown record. This could be a fun game if the offense starts clicking. The defense needs to get after Stroud to make him uncomfortable. If the Chiefs can win the turnover battle, they should handle the Texans, beat the spread again and be one step closer to the one-seed.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Texans 17

Read More: Chiefs vs. Texans Preview – Quality Test for KC Against AFC Playoff Opponent