KC Chiefs vs. LA Chargers Preview: How Legit is the Champs' Week 4 Opponent?

The Kansas City Chiefs travel to LA to face the Chargers for a classic AFC West battle, but how much of a challenge will the home team provide in Week 4?

Oct 22, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) talks with Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman Jr. (12) prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are riding high following a 3-0 start, but the AFC West is far from secured. The Los Angeles Chargers will be waiting at SoFi Stadium, and head coach Jim Harbaugh's club is in an interesting spot.

The home team, 2-1 on the year, won against the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers before suffering a 10-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. With new coordinators on both sides of the ball and the aforementioned head coaching change, this isn't the same Los Angeles squad Kansas City saw a season ago. On the other side, the Chiefs have defeated three quality opponents in a row and could create even more space for their division lead with a victory.

How does Kansas City match up with Los Angeles, and how could Sunday afternoon's game unfold? Let's preview Week 4 and outline everything there is to know.

Notable player changes for Chargers during the offseason

Gains: LB Bud Dupree, RB Gus Edwards, RB J.K. Dobbins, TE Will Dissly, DT Poona Ford, S Tony Jefferson, CB Kristian Fulton, OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey

Losses: WR Keenan Allen, RB Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett, RB Joshua Kelley, C Corey Linsley, LB Kenneth Murray, WR Mike Williams

Chargers offensive breakdown: Finding the right fit for Justin Herbert

First and foremost, it's important to take note of the Chargers' injury situation. Not only is Herbert nursing a high-ankle sprain that he aggravated last weekend, but both of his starting tackles are hurt. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt missed Wednesday's practice, which doesn't bode well for Los Angeles entering Week 4. With that in mind, it's been tricky getting a good look at a fully healthy offense.

Judging based on what we have doesn't show a scary unit. Through three games, the Chargers are 18th in EPA per play on offense and 23rd in dropback EPA. Under Greg Roman, their philosophy has been to run, run and then run again. The team was 24th in rushing attempts a year ago but is ninth so far, also boasting the third-lowest neutral pass rate in football. With a No. 9 ranking in rush EPA and a high explosive run rate, accounting for the new duo of Dobbins and Edwards is a must.

Los Angeles likes to get multiple backs on the field. Thus far, they rank first in the NFL in 22-personnel (two running backs, two tight ends) and are eighth in EPA/play there per SumerSports. They also sit fifth in the league in 21 personnel with a 16% usage rate. According to NFLsavant, the Chargers run behind the center 21% of the time but also stack attempts to the left guard (18%), left tackle (16%) and left end (15%) quite often.

Despite Herbert's talent, the Chargers' limited passing game holds them back right now. A whopping 51.4% of their drives fail to get a first down, the highest mark in the NFL. If you're looking for a schematic matchup, see how Herbert fares against Cover 1 and Cover 4. Among quarterbacks with at least the same number of attempts as him last year, the young signal-caller posted the fourth-worst EPA per play and third-worst yards per attempt mark versus single-high looks. That's the Chiefs' second-most-used coverage so far. Their ideal choice is quarters (26%), which Herbert had a high-ranking 0.23 EPA/attempt against in 2023-24.

Chargers defensive breakdown: Moving on from the Brandon Staley era

With Jesse Minter making the jump to the NFL, the early returns for Los Angeles' defense are very positive. It's important to factor in who they've played so far, however, as their ranking in EPA per play (seventh) might fall over time. The same could be true for points, yards, turnover margin and first downs allowed – top-six in the league. Much like their offense, the Chargers have success with the run game on defense. They're allowing the fourth-lowest rush EPA so far, as well as the second-lowest success rate on those tries.

These days, the Chiefs' offense isn't what it used to be in terms of variety or potency. Patrick Mahomes ranks 30th in average air yards per pass attempt at 5.2, and a lot of his passes are at or behind the line of scrimmage. The two-time MVP is completing just 38% of his passes against pressure, which is a remarkably low figure considering his track record. Luckily for him, Los Angeles has struggled to generate pressure three games in.

Schematically, the Chargers are in the middle of the pack in Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage at 26% and 16%, respectively. They like Cover 2 (25%) and Cover 6 (15%), both of which are top-five figures in the sport. Unfortunately for Mahomes and the Chiefs, that style is exactly what could make the offense take its medicine again. Much like Week 3's win over the Atlanta Falcons, don't expect a high-flying performance here. Safety Derwin James being suspended could help Kansas City's cause.

Players to watch in Chiefs vs. Chargers

Los Angeles: WR Quentin Johnston, EDGE Joey Bosa

After being selected 21st overall in last year's NFL Draft, Johnston posted just 431 yards and a pair of touchdowns as a rookie. He struggled immensely, and the Chargers losing Allen and Williams thrust the TCU product into a bigger role. It's early, but his three touchdowns, 77% catch rate and 10.2 yards per target all depict someone who's on the climb. Bosa didn't participate in Wednesday's practice, so it's unclear whether he'll play on Sunday. If he can, he's still one of the best pass rushers in football. If he can't, keep an eye on veteran star Khalil Mack.

Kansas City: RB Carson Steele, DT Tershawn Wharton

Steele got the nod as the Chiefs' primary back in Week 3, and he delivered with a 72-yard rushing performance. That didn't seem to surprise head coach Andy Reid, so look for the undrafted rookie free agent to get plenty of opportunities on Sunday. On paper, this should be a better test for him. Wharton, an undrafted player in his own right, has been tremendous against the pass and effective versus the run this year. Like Steele, he'll face a legitimate test on Sunday even with Slater and Alt both potentially out.

Week 4 score prediction: 24-17 Chiefs

While the Los Angeles defense looks to be vastly improved, I'm not quite sold on them just yet. On the other hand, Mahomes and Co. still have some things to sort out in their own right. Fortunately for Kansas City, the combination of poor offensive execution and injuries on the Chargers' side shouldn't make them too much of a challenge in Week 4. Expect a one-score game falling close to what betting markets anticipate, as Reid's team simply doesn't blow too many teams out by several scores anymore.

Read More: These Three Players Are Making Leaps for the Chiefs’ Defense