KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: NFL Divisional Round Preview and Predictions
For the second weekend in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for a heck of a playoff battle. This time around, though, Patrick Mahomes and company will be hitting the road to square off against an AFC opponent for the first time since he took over at quarterback.
The hosts on Sunday are the Buffalo Bills, who have yet to get past Kansas City in the postseason since Josh Allen became the club's full-time starter. While Sean McDermott's squad has managed to have thorough success against the Chiefs in the regular season, this is a different beast. Despite that, Buffalo is favored by just under a field goal against its conference rival this weekend.
For the Divisional Round winner, a trip to the AFC Championship Game is booked. For the losing team, their season will end on an abrupt note and send them into the offseason looking to bounce back. The stakes don't get much higher than this; it's win-or-go-home time.
How will Sunday's game unfold? The Arrowhead Report crew makes their predictions.
Joshua Brisco: I've talked myself into it. The Bills' banged-up defense should give the up-and-down Chiefs' offense enough opportunities for winnable matchups, and last week's Kelce-Rice-Pacheco gameplan can be enough for another playoff win if they get any help at all from the struggling supporting cast. On the other side of the ball, I haven't doubted the Chiefs' defense in a while, and I'm not changing course now. Steve Spagnuolo and his versatile collection of defenders can present Josh Allen with a variety of looks along with down-to-down consistency, which should be enough to limit the Bills' offense while finding opportunities to make big plays when Allen gives them the chance.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 20
Jordan Foote: This is as close as I've felt to a game being a true toss-up. While Buffalo has multiple injury situations to deal with, Josh Allen and Co. are at home and project to have a smoother operation on offense. I believe in the ability of the Chiefs' defense to slow down the Bills enough to keep this game close and provide the other side with a chance to win, but Kansas City has shown to be a sloppy team almost all season. Sorry in advance, but I'm not too sure Andy Reid's offense does enough to overcome its mistakes this time around. Bills, the home team, in a one-point game.
Prediction: Bills 21, Chiefs 20
Mark Van Sickle: The Chiefs' defense has what it takes to slow down the Bills. Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and company will keep Josh Allen uncomfortable. L’Jarius Sneed will shut down Stefon Diggs. With Drue Tranquill in the lineup, something the Bills were able to avoid during the regular season, James Cook won’t be able to cook the Chiefs like he did last time. The Chiefs will also have Isiah Pacheco this time around, and he’s been an X-factor for this offense all season when healthy.
I anticipate Travis Kelce having another solid game and Rashee Rice should be able to keep YAC-ing all over the field. Mahomes doesn’t need any more reason to be hyped, but it’s his first road playoff game and the haters and doubters have been out in full force this week. Give me the good guys advancing to the AFC Championship for an unprecedented sixth straight season!
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 20
Zack Eisen: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going on the road in an AFC playoff matchup for the first time in his career. They will travel to Buffalo to face a familiar foe. Kansas City faced the Bills earlier in the season in the infamous Kadarius Toney offsides game. After Buffalo jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs' defense did a good job slowing down the Bills’ offense. Kansas City’s offense didn’t have Isiah Pacheco that day and committed two costly turnovers. Playoff Mahomes and Playoff Spags will be in full effect in Buffalo, leading the Chiefs to a victory and their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 17
Marlow Ferguson Jr.: For the third time in four seasons, the NFL postseason presents a duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. On the Bills’ side, the revenge narrative is an interesting one; they’ve gone 3-1 against the Mahomes-led Chiefs in regular season games, but 0-2 when it truly matters. Despite this being Mahomes’s first-ever road postseason game — which probably doesn’t matter for someone like him — Buffalo’s injury report is of major concern, most notably in the secondary and in the receiving corp behind Stefon Diggs. With two All-Pro caliber corners shadowing Diggs, it feels like the Chiefs, who’ve finally awoken, should be able to stamp their ticket to Baltimore on the way to the AFC Championship Game.
Prediction: Chiefs 25, Bills 23
