Chiefs vs. Lions: Week 1 Preview and Predictions

Can the Chiefs kick off their 2023 regular season with a win over the visiting Lions? Let's predict how Week 1 will unfold.

The Kansas City Chiefs' roller coaster of an offseason is finally over, and the train that is the 2023 NFL season is getting ready to take off. 

In the months following their Super Bowl LVII win over the Philadelphia Eagles, Andy Reid's team spent quite a bit of time celebrating its second championship with him as the head coach. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce had busy offseasons getting recognized for their accomplishments, and the entire team enjoyed reaching the end of a grueling 2022 campaign and achieving what it originally set out to do long beforehand.

With those highs, however, also came some lows. Most notably, defensive tackle Chris Jones held out of the club's offseason program and is now on the reserve/did not report list to start the season. As the Detroit Lions come into town and Kansas City raises its championship banner, it'll be a bittersweet moment as everyone collectively looks back on the February game one last time before effectively moving forward in pursuit of a repeat performance. 

How will today's game unfold? The Arrowhead Report crew makes their predictions.

Joshua Brisco: The already-evolving Chiefs offense could look even more alien without Travis Kelce (or with him limited), but the offense still revolves around Patrick Mahomes. The defense without Chris Jones? To be determined. I expect the offense to take care of business while the pass-rush struggles to get home without Jones’s gravitational pull in the middle of the d-line. Still, Mahomes and a young but talented defense combine for a winning effort that isn’t as dominant as it could have been with a healthy Kelce and present Jones.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Lions 27

Jordan Foote: Apologies in advance. I'm going against the reigning Super Bowl champions on the same night they raise their banner in front of the home crowd. Because of the emotions wrapped up in that — as well as Detroit being a team that thrives on getting amped up and led by a fearless head coach — the Chiefs might get punched in the mouth out of the gate on Thursday. If that happens, expect a highly competitive outing that could end up coming down to which squad has possession of the football last.

There's no doubting Kansas City's long-term projection as the (likely) best team in the AFC. This isn't an indictment on them. The combination of celebrating with Chris Jones potentially in the house but not playing, in addition to Travis Kelce being hurt and the Lions' offense being more than formidable is enough for me to roll with the visitors in a close game. 

Prediction: Lions 34, Chiefs 31

Mark Van Sickle: There will be a lot of pomp and circumstance leading up to kickoff but once the players hit the field, we will finally be back into Chiefs football. The last time Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff faced off, it was a prime-time game that ended in a 54-51 Chiefs loss. Mahomes typically starts the year very strong, and I expect more of the same again in the season opener. Even with Travis Kelce hurt, Mahomes can get that 300-yard, three-touchdown performance with the world watching. Don’t expect Goff to be quite as comfortable with an Arrowhead crowd belittling him all night. I anticipate the Chiefs will win the turnover battle and ultimately end up 1-0 despite the question marks surrounding a few players on the team.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Lions 30

Zack Eisen: At the time of writing this, I'm unsure about Travis Kelce’s status. This is written under the assumption that Kelce is inactive. Even without two of their three best players, I’ll bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with extra time to prepare with weapons that no NFL team has seen. Without Kelce, the Lions have no clue who the offense will run through in the passing game and with him, that would only help. Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo dials up enough exotic looks to confuse a Lions offense that struggled on the road last year. Mahomes starts the season off with a bang, throwing for five touchdowns in a Chiefs victory.

Prediction: Chiefs 45, Lions 23

Conner Christopherson: Ah, we're back. With Kelce and Jones trending towards not playing, as of writing, this game has shifted from "frisky but expect the Chiefs to win" to "...maybe?" Now, because it's the Week 1 Chiefs and the fact I still don't buy the Lions' defense is that good, it's hard to ignore the moxie of Reid, Mahomes and banner night leading to the Chiefs still running away with this one. 

What gives me pause is the Chiefs' defensive line against the Lions' offensive line. As long as the likes of Derrick Nnadi, Keondre Coburn and Tershawn Wharton can hold on in the run game, the Chiefs should be able to win this. What I'll be watching is the Chiefs' wide receiver room — any and all of them. The group is interesting and outcomes for it are incredibly varied. How the wideout corps will pan out will tell us a lot about how the Chiefs' season will go. Even so, Mahomes will get this specific game done.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Lions 27

Marlow Ferguson Jr.: The combination of the Lions’ efficient offense and the Chiefs potentially missing two All-Pro talents should keep this game competitive. But it’s borderline impossible to not place trust in a quarterback whose Week 1 stats read as follows: 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions, a 136.9 QBR and a perfect 5-0 record. Eager to send a message across the NFL in round one of their title defense, expect Andy Reid and the Chiefs to do what they’ve always done: find a way, even in inopportune circumstances. The game should be close to start, but some magic from No. 15 — and likely an unsung hero or two — should guide a second-half pull away for a victory.

Prediction: Chiefs 33, Lions 25

Read More: Three Important Questions for the Chiefs Entering 2023 Season