Chiefs vs. Jaguars: Divisional Round Preview and Predictions

The Arrowhead Report crew predicts whether KC will advance with a Saturday win at home.

The Kansas City Chiefs' playoff slate is about to kick off after not having to play in the AFC's Super Wild Card Weekend due to having a bye. Now, the Jacksonville Jaguars come rolling into town for a Divisional Round rematch of a meeting from a couple of months ago.

In November, Week 10's showdown between Kansas City and Jacksonville led to the hosts securing a double-digit win behind a stellar performance by Patrick Mahomes and five sacks from Steve Spagnuolo's defense. From that point on, the Chiefs continued along their path to getting the one-seed while the Jaguars caught fire and ended the regular season on a tear that saw them leapfrog the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South crown. While Patrick Mahomes and company rested up during the bye, Trevor Lawrence led his team on a historic comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers in his playoff debut. 

Per the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook, the Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points. That's a bit higher than the nine-point advantage some others have flashed throughout the week, but it's also a testament to the legend of Andy Reid coming off a bye. In Lawrence's first road playoff game, he enters a hostile environment seeking another win to keep Jacksonville's exciting story going. He and the Jaguars face quite the challenge in Kansas City, though. How will today's game unfold? The Arrowhead Report crew makes their predictions.

Joshua Brisco: The Jaguars deserve an immense amount of credit for their comeback win over the Chargers last week and they're clearly on track to become a perennial playoff contender; they just don't match up very well with the Chiefs. Kansas City has an extra week of rest and preparation, a blossoming pass rush, a defensive coordinator built to throw a variety of pressures at Trevor Lawrence, and the offensive Cerberus of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Travis Kelce. 

A mistake-filled game for KC could absolutely turn this game into the next chapter in a book of AFC South teams haunting the Chiefs, but if Kansas City plays a clean game without self-inflicted wounds, they'll meet the Bills or Bengals next weekend.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 21

Jordan Foote: There's an argument to be made that even after winning by 10 back in Week 10's matchup, the Chiefs are in a better place now. There's certainly a similar argument to be made for Jacksonville, but Kansas City turned the ball over three times in November and still won handily. The Jaguars seem a year off from being an AFC Championship-level team, and betting against Andy Reid coming off a bye is risky work. I'm predicting another 10-point win over Jacksonville for the Chiefs, but one that will surely have to be earned. Doug Pederson and company won't go down without a fight. 

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 24

Mark Van Sickle: The Chiefs should be well rested coming off a bye week, while the Jaguars are coming down from an emotionally draining high that occurred during a comeback win last week against the Chargers. The defense should get after Trevor Lawrence and force a couple of turnovers. Patrick Mahomes and the offense will keep rolling and as long as the Chiefs win the turnover battle, they’ll cover the spread and win by double digits.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Jaguars 20

Zack Eisen: The Chiefs will open up the Divisional Round by hosting the Jaguars, an opponent they already faced off against this season in Arrowhead. Back in Week 10, the Jaguars took the playing-with-house money approach and started the game by recovering an onside kick and going for it on fourth down multiple times. Jacksonville comes into this game off one of the biggest and most emotional playoff comebacks in NFL history. Kansas City can’t let the Jaguars keep that momentum. 

Patrick Mahomes and the offense have to put points up early as they let the Chiefs’ defense get after it. It’s a 1-0 approach each week as the Chiefs begin their quest for the third Super Bowl win in franchise history.

Prediction: Chiefs 38, Jaguars 20

Conner Christopherson: Trevor Lawrence has really come into his own this year and the Jags as a whole are playing better than expected under Doug Pederson, but I find it hard to believe that they will come in and stun the Chiefs. The Chiefs' offense in the first matchup with the Jaguars was efficient and surgical and only scored 27 points due to losing possessions to turnovers and an onside kick at the beginning of the game. Mahomes and Kelce should be able to take advantage of a poor Jags defense. On defense, it is important for the Chiefs' resurgent pass rush to get home against Lawrence. Hopefully, Chris Jones can get his first playoff sack and the Chiefs can once again play in the AFC Championship Game.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 23

Marlow Ferguson Jr.: Saturday’s matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs feels like the perfect example of a dangerous, up-and-coming hopeful against a solidified powerhouse. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense have officially found their way over the second half of the season, and while there’s no doubt that they can put some pressure on, it’s difficult to emotionally pull off the unlikeliest of feats two consecutive weeks in a row. Jacksonville ranked third-worst in defending TEs this season, making for one of many matchups to watch; Andy Reid is 27-4 off of a bye week; there are just too many factors going the Chiefs’ way. Expect Mahomes and the crew to play clean and put a blemish on Lawrence’s undefeated Saturday record.

Prediction: Chiefs 33, Jaguars 23

Read More: Four Keys to a Chiefs Victory Over the Jaguars