AFC Playoff Bracket Gives Chiefs Some Favorable Matchups

Regardless of what happens this weekend, KC has a solid matchup for the Divisional Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs took care of business in Week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders, locking up the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed in the process. Now, they get to sit back and rest during Super Wild Card Weekend while the rest of the conference battles it out for the right to advance to the Divisional Round.

Kansas City has four possible opponents for its playoff opener. Perhaps the biggest non-bye advantage Andy Reid's team gained by securing the one-seed is that it isn't eligible to face either the Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals in the second round. By virtue of the bracket, the Chiefs will host the lowest remaining playoff seed in the Divisional Round. That list of 4-7 teams includes the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, and they all serve as favorable matchups for the Chiefs.

Jacksonville, the AFC South champions with a 9-8 record, lost in Kansas City back in Week 10 and entered the bye with a 3-7 record. Doug Pederson's squad then rattled off six wins in seven games to secure the division crown also thanks to a late-season collapse by the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars' defense is talented and Pederson is a quality coach with a good young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, but Lawrence playing his first career road playoff game in Kansas City is an automatic advantage for the Chiefs. This team seems a year off from being a real contender, and a hypothetical Divisional Round upset would be a massive shock.

Brandon Staley's Chargers won four of their final five regular-season games, heading into the playoffs as the top wild card team and boasting a 10-7 record. Quarterback Justin Herbert is one of the very best in the NFL, and Staley's defense improved to 15th in Football Outsiders' Defensive DVOA by season's end. With Herbert under center, Los Angeles has always had close games against the Chiefs. With that said, Kansas City escaped with a pair of victories against its AFC West rivals this season and this is also Herbert's first taste of the playoffs. This potential matchup is by far the scariest for the Chiefs in round two of the postseason, yet they'd still be favored by a fair amount to win it.

Baltimore is weird to evaluate, as John Harbaugh's group got off to a bumpy 3-3 start to the season before rattling off four wins in a row but then going 3-4 over its next seven contests. It appears that star quarterback Lamar Jackson may make an attempt to return for the playoffs, but he hasn't played since Week 13. Additionally, Greg Roman's approach with Jackson remains somewhat questionable and the Ravens simply don't have the skill position talent they should with such a dynamic quarterback. Baltimore's ceiling is that of a deep playoff contender, although managing to put the pieces back together and find that form in such a short amount of time is unlikely. The floor is an easy first-game exit.

Last, and possibly least (in this case), the Dolphins resemble the Ravens in some ways. They, too, got off to a 7-3 start and actually won their next contest to make it 8-3 on the year. A five-game losing streak then put Mike McDaniel's squad at an even .500 record before an ugly Week 18 win helped clinch a playoff spot. Miami, like Baltimore, has a quarterback who was recently injured and whose status for the playoffs remains in question. Where the Dolphins become at least a little bit scary, though, is when receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle get factored into the picture. Either player can flip momentum in the blink of an eye, but still, the Miami hype train ran out of steam weeks ago and it would take something special in order for it to pick back up.

No matter who the Chiefs face in their first playoff game of 2023, they boast a decent chance of advancing to a whopping fifth straight AFC Championship Game. Each potential opponent has its strengths and weaknesses, although there's a pretty clear hierarchy of which clubs are possible threats and which ones may not make it out of postseason Week 1. Upsets are always on the table and these opponents deserve respect but when factoring in the GEHA Field/Arrowhead Stadium advantage and the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, envisioning a shocking outcome becomes difficult. Kansas City is in fine shape as its first postseason game is on the horizon. 

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