AFC Playoff Picture: Chiefs Getting One Step Closer to Capturing Top Seed

With Week 16 arriving, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to soar above the conference in the updated AFC playoff picture.

Dec 15, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

With the 2024-25 regular season winding down, contending NFL teams are running out of time to jockey for playoff positioning. That's a good thing for the Kansas City Chiefs, however, as the reigning Super Bowl champs are very close to securing the AFC's lone first-round postseason bye.

Where does Andy Reid's squad rank entering Week 16's play, and what does the competition look like? Let's examine the AFC playoff picture for a better look at who's tracking to make the postseason.

* indicates a team that has clinched a playoff spot.

1: Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)*

It's business as usual for Kansas City, but with a twist. Following a Week 15 victory over the Cleveland Browns, all they need is a triumph against the Houston Texans on Saturday and a Buffalo Bills loss or tie to lock up the No. 1 seed in the conference. If the Chiefs tie the Texans and Buffalo loses to the New England Patriots, the same outcome could be achieved. The elephant in the room, though, is the ankle injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes. With his Week 16 status still uncertain, defeating a visiting Houston team might not be so simple.

2: Buffalo Bills (11-3)*

Despite losing to the Los Angeles Rams in a Week 14 thriller, Buffalo keeps applying pressure and remaining in the mix for that elusive one-seed. While the Chiefs control their own destiny for it, there is a world where the Bills win out against three beatable opponents (New England twice, with the New York Jets in between) and make Kansas City win two of its last three. At this point, time is simultaneously Buffalo's best friend and worst enemy. With quarterback Josh Allen playing at a historically good level right now, they figure to be one of the league's toughest outs going forward.

3: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)*

After splitting their last four games, bookended by losses, the Steelers find themselves needing just about everything to go right if they want to have a real shot at the one-seed. At this point, battling for a second or third ranking is a lot more likely. A daunting closing schedule started on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles and continues with the Baltimore Ravens this weekend, the Chiefs on Christmas Day and a feisty Cincinnati Bengals team in Week 18. Is Mike Tomlin's team beginning to show a few cracks? There's a case to be made, but that narrative can change in the coming games.

4: Houston Texans (9-5)*

Fresh off a bye week, the Texans secured an eight-point win to drive a stake into the Miami Dolphins' playoff chances (more on that later) on Sunday. Quarterback C.J. Stroud remains shaky in year No. 2 with the team but thanks to the AFC South being so poor this season, Houston is the back-to-back division champion. Saturday's game in Kansas City is a huge opportunity to send a statement, as is Week 17's outing at home against the Ravens. Are the Texans rounding into playoff form, or is this team a potential first-round exit one?

5: Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Ravens continue to be one of football's more confusing squads, which seems like a theme just about every week. John Harbaugh's crew is 2-2 in its last four games but came out of the bye with a bang by throwing for five touchdowns against the New York Giants in Week 15. Tough tasks against Pittsburgh and Houston are on the horizon; AFC North supremacy could be impacted in the former. Advanced statistics love Baltimore and Lamar Jackson is playing at an elite level, but there are still some questions that need to be answered. The Ravens can clinch with a Week 16 win or with losses by the Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts.

6: Denver Broncos (9-5)

Sean Payton's Broncos squad came back from a 10-0 deficit on Sunday and outscored the Colts 31-3 the rest of the way. Even with rookie quarterback Bo Nix throwing for just 130 yards and three interceptions, he matched that production with a trio of touchdowns. Sitting at 9-5 on the year, Denver holds a favorable chance at securing one of the conference's wild-card playoff seeds. In fact, they can lock one up with a Week 16 victory or with losses by the Bengals, Colts and Dolphins.

7: Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

After getting out to a 7-3 start to the season, Jim Harbaugh's Chargers have dropped three of their last four games with the lone win being a 17-13 outcome over the 7-7 Atlanta Falcons. Most of what Los Angeles wants is still out ahead of them, however, entering Week 16. With a win over Denver on "Thursday Night Football" and losses by the Colts and Dolphins, the Chargers would lock up a playoff spot with two weeks to spare. Even with a loss, they'd still have the inside track for a wild-card berth given their standing and upcoming schedule (at the Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders).

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (6-8), Miami Dolphins (6-8), Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

With their loss to the Broncos in Week 15, the Colts are now firmly on the outside looking in and need some help in order to lock up one of the AFC's final playoff spots. Elsewhere, NFL.com estimates that Miami has just a 7% chance of making the big dance thanks to their recent performance in Houston. Cincinnati, the most dangerous team of this bunch, has the slimmest of postseason chances but is hanging on for dear life as quarterback Joe Burrow puts up MVP-caliber numbers.

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