AFC Playoff Picture: Chiefs Set to Clinch One-Seed and First-Round Bye?

With Week 17 arriving, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in a good position in the updated AFC playoff picture.

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) talks with head coach Andy Reid during the second half against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

With the regular season soon coming to a close, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs will be set to embark on playoff pushes in an attempt to reach Super Bowl LIX. Before that, however, seeding and a couple of additional postseason slots in the conference must be sorted out.

Where does Andy Reid's squad rank entering Week 17's play, and what does the competition look like? Let's examine the AFC playoff picture for a better look at who's tracking to make the postseason.

* indicates a team that has clinched a playoff spot.

1: Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)*

With a Week 16 win over the Houston Texans, Kansas City is in a tremendous spot. Not only do the reigning Super Bowl champions have a win-and-in scenario for the AFC's one-seed, but they also have a backup option coming. Should the Chiefs lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, they could clinch the No. 1 spot and a first-round bye with a Buffalo Bills loss or tie over the weekend. Ensuring that each of their non-Super Bowl contests would be played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium would be a massive boost for the Chiefs, who are one step closer to that reality in Week 17.

2: Buffalo Bills (12-3)*

Since dropping a thriller to the Los Angeles Rams on the road, the Bills have won consecutive games in different fashions. Week 15 saw them go toe-to-toe with the high-powered Detroit Lions and score 48 points, whereas Sunday's victory in Foxborough against the New England Patriots was nothing to write home about. In order to secure the one-seed, Buffalo needs to win out and have Kansas City drop both of its remaining games. That's possible thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, although it isn't very probable.

3: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)*

Pittsburgh is officially out of the race for the one-seed, but they have plenty to play for this weekend anyway as the AFC North is still very much up for grabs. Despite losing to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, Mike Tomlin's team maintains a conference record tiebreaker. Losing to the Chiefs on Wednesday could alter the picture, though, which makes it an important game. Closing the season with the Cincinnati Bengals could also influence whether the Steelers are a division winner or a wild-card team.

4: Houston Texans (9-6)*

Unlike Pittsburgh, Houston has locked up its division and is merely playing for seeding purposes right now. C.J. Stroud and company put up a solid effort in Week 16 but couldn't come away with a win in Kansas City, and things won't get much easier on Christmas Day as the Ravens come rolling into town. Closing with the Tennessee Titans helps, but the Texans would surely like to round into form down the stretch if at all possible.

5: Baltimore Ravens (10-5)*

Suddenly, the Ravens are looking more and more dangerous as time passes. In their last two weeks, they've put up a combined 69 points and strung together some nice showings on both sides of the ball. With consecutive intraconference games on the docket to close out the season, winning the AFC North is still on the table. Being able to host a first-round playoff game likely appeals significantly more to projected MVP runner-up Lamar Jackson than going on the road on Wild Card weekend.

6: Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)

Since getting out to a 7-3 start to the year, Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers have won just two of their last five games. With that said, Thursday night saw them take down the Denver Broncos in a game with seeding implications. Now, Los Angeles can clinch a wild-card spot with a win or tie or a Miami Dolphins loss or tie paired with an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie. There are multiple ways for Justin Herbert and Co. to get into the big dance, especially with 94% playoff odds according to NFL.com.

7: Denver Broncos (9-6)

After winning four games in a row, the Broncos' hot streak was put to an end in Los Angeles (OK, Inglewood) in Week 16. Although that's the case, the playoff formula is still very simple for Sean Payton and his team. With a win or tie against the Bengals on Saturday afternoon, Denver can punch its ticket to the postseason for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign.

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

Somehow, a trio of 7-8 clubs is still hanging on by a thread entering Week 17's play. Indianapolis faces the lowly New York Giants this week, Miami is squaring off with the Browns and Cincinnati has Denver on the docket. With estimated playoff odds of 14%, 8% and 7%, respectively, things are bleak for each of these teams but there's a case to be made that weirder things have happened.

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