After Unlucky Season, Patrick Mahomes Will Put NFL on Notice in 2022

Mahomes dealt with drops and untimely interceptions last year, and regression to the mean could spell trouble for the rest of the NFL.

As anticipation for the 2022-23 NFL season builds, analysts across the globe have offered up no shortage of lists, ranking the league’s top signal-callers. Along the way, it’s become the “cool,” chic thing to do to slide Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes down a few pegs and sometimes out of the top five altogether.

It goes without question that omitting Mahomes from one of those top spots is a surefire way to both spark a dialogue and increase page views of some sort. It begs the question, though: how much of it is justifiable?

The easy rationale is that Mahomes’s one-of-a-kind career arc took a step back in 2021-22. Statistics such as yards per game (284.6), QBR (62.2) and interceptions (13) would all qualify as the weakest of his four-year run as a starter. However, those numbers largely ignore a critical component surrounding last season: few quarterbacks were as unlucky as No. 15 was, particularly over the season’s first half.

Spin the wheel and take your pick of statistics. Mahomes’s throws produced 31 drops, according to Pro Football Reference, which tied for No. 5 in the NFL. Football Outsiders tallied him with five tipped interceptions; no other thrower surpassed two. Here’s how bad it looked around the midway point.

Patrick Mahomes throws his sixth interception this season that had above a 75% chance of being completed (twice as many as any other QB).

Mahomes had thrown just two INTs on such passes in his first three seasons as a starter combined.#KCvsDAL | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/n6UeIO2QiW

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 21, 2021

For years, experts anticipated that Mahomes would at some point fall into that “unlucky” pot and, oh boy, he certainly did in 2021-22. It was bowling shoe ugly for the Chiefs’ offense at certain points of last year, particularly with their inability to stay out of their own way with drops and interceptions.

As the old saying (kind of) goes: what goes around, comes around, goes around. Football Reference’s advanced passing database tracks which quarterbacks have been most impacted by drops since 2018. Over that span, 13 of them have had at least 30 drops in a season. Twelve of those 13 went on to have fewer drops in the following season.

Perhaps part of that just stems from year-to-year variance and luck. Or, maybe the coaching staff makes it a point of added focus in the future year’s training camp. Knowing Andy Reid — and one of the faces he made after Byron Pringle’s drop in that Chiefs-Broncos game in Week 10 — it feels safer to bet on the latter.

Mahomes won’t make it through the entirety of 2022-23 unscathed when it comes to unlucky plays here or there, but they shouldn’t come to the degree that they did here or here as often. Or whatever this was. Part of that will come from the new group of receivers the Chiefs plan to bring in. This doesn’t take anything away from the Chiefs’ past wideouts and their contributions, but the numbers of their assumed "big four" at that position speak for themselves.

As a case in point: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, despite owning the NFL’s furthest average depth of target, tallied zero drops last season. Mecole Hardman was forced to adjust from being a big-play threat to more of a chain-mover, and he accounted for just four drops on 92 targets (including the postseason). JuJu Smith-Schuster has only dropped three passes over his last two seasons, which includes a combined 156 targets. At Western Michigan, Skyy Moore had just three drops on 125 targets.

This goes without mentioning Travis Kelce, too. The odds are that he doesn’t have another 10-drop season. In 2020, he had just two drops. The seven-time Pro Bowler is due for a regression in this regard. The recent comments, too, about him re-finding his “love for football” and about he and Mahomes being “a little bit ticked off” ought to have linebackers across the NFL shaking in their boots. Or cleats — whatever they’re wearing at this very moment.

It would be unwise to simply expect zero drops, though, especially if defenses don’t run as many two-high coverage shells. That would (in theory) allow the Chiefs to take more deep shots.

Doubly as fun to think about: of Mahomes’s 13 interceptions, seven of them came in opposing territory. Let’s say we take away those seven interceptions and turn them into field goals. That an extra 21 points would’ve put Kansas City in the exclusive 500-point club, something only 27 teams have done over the last 55 years.

It’s also very arguable that those early-season interceptions played into Mahomes being a tad bit more conservative. Turnovers generally make a quarterback more hesitant to take risks on the ensuing drives. He isn’t absent of blame himself; he had a few ill-advised throws himself, and Sharp Football Analysis tracked him as the No. 24 most accurate medium-range thrower and No. 19 on shorter throws. As transcendent as he’s been, there are still areas where he can improve. Nevertheless, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Mahomes still not only produced one of the finest seasons in the NFL but was also a few plays away from a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance in as many years.

As the old saying goes, you don’t always have to run faster than the bear, only faster than the guys next to you in order to survive. Even in the most unlucky on-field season of his career, Mahomes still performed at a level beyond 95% of the NFL. With regression on that luck certain to come his way this season, the rest of the NFL would be wise to take notice.