Analyst Explains Why Chiefs Are Among NFL's 'Most Likely to Improve' in 2024

In a recent article, ESPN's Bill Barnwell dove into what cost Kansas City games last year and why things should be better this time around.

Sep 7, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch (32) intercepts a pass intended for Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

If you paid any attention to the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2023-24 regular season, you likely watched a team that didn't look like a sure-fire Super Bowl contender. While Andy Reid's team turned things around in the playoffs, the weeks before that were anything but easy.

For the first time with quarterback Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs' offense trended closer to league average than one of football's very best. For games on end, inconsistency plagued their attack. With possessions stalling out due to poor execution or turnovers, Kansas City limped into the postseason with an 11-6 record.

As everyone remembers, some of the misfortune began to turn around once the playoffs began. The Chiefs looked a lot more like their old selves under the brightest of lights, rattling off several wins in a row en route to a Super Bowl LVIII title. Could that version of Kansas City be what the NFL sees in 2024-25? A prominent league analyst believes so.

In a recent article for ESPN, Bill Barnwell included the Chiefs in his list of teams that are "most likely to improve" this season. A championship-winning team coming back better is a scary thought, but Barnwell thinks it's possible. Citing the turnover battle as a major reason why, Barnwell thinks a cleaner brand of football will lead to more regular-season success.

"Patrick Mahomes & Co. actually lost the turnover battle in nine of their 17 games, going 4-5 in those matchups," Barnwell wrote. "As a subtraction wizard, I can tell you they managed a 7-1 record in the games in which they tied or won the turnover battle. They lost the turnover battle only once during their four playoff games, with that coming in their narrow road win over the Bills when Mecole Hardman fumbled away a would-be touchdown.

"With Mahomes under center, losing the turnover battle hadn't been a regular occurrence. Between 2018 and 2022, the Chiefs trailed their opponents in turnover margin 26 times, the fourth-lowest rate for any team, and one that amounts to about five games per season. They went 15-11 in those games, which is a testament to how they can overcome mistakes, but they were 15-5 when they tied the opposing team in turnovers and a whopping 34-2 when they posted a superior turnover margin. I don't see any reason to believe Kansas City is going to be as likely to lose the turnover battle as it was a year ago, and that should bump up its record in the process."

Barnwell mentioned fumbles, which he describes as a "crapshoot" once they hit the ground, as something that was due for regression to the mean (it happened in the playoffs). Additionally, Kansas City's league-high drop rate for wide receivers was cut down by more than half in the postseason. A lot of what the Chiefs experienced in terms of leveling out could be translatable to this year.

There's also the element of improved personnel, which Barnwell alluded to. Once Marquise "Hollywood" Brown gets back from his sternoclavicular injury, he'll provide a steady presence in the wideout room. That, combined with the speed of rookie Xavier Worthy, should force defenses to account for much more than they did a year ago. Add in a healthy Travis Kelce and year-two Rashee Rice, and it's easy to see improvement being in store.

Although the Chiefs have a higher floor to improve from, they very well could do better than 11 wins this year.

Read More: Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes React to Xavier Worthy's Big Day vs. Lions