Analytics Recap: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 5-1 after defeating the Buffalo Bills 26-17 on Monday afternoon in Buffalo. The Chiefs played a really good game of football in every aspect of this one, with the Chiefs having great advanced numbers on passes, runs, opposing passes and opposing runs.
Here are the advanced numbers for the game and the season on Ben Baldwin's stats website, rbsdm.com, and Football Outsiders.
The Chiefs were amazingly effective and efficient with both their passing and rushing game in this one. 0.18 EPA per play on runs is almost unheard of and at one point in the game, it was around 0.3 EPA per play, which is stunning. Meanwhile, the passing got back to what you expect in a Patrick Mahomes game with an excellent 0.51 EPA per play, which is nearly four times higher than the 0.13 EPA per play in their loss to the Raiders.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills had -0.12 rushing EPA per play and 0.17 passing EPA per play, both of which are great results for the Chiefs' defense. Tack on a 0.16 EPA per play on late downs and you've got a defensive performance to be proud of.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams put on a show in this one with a combined EPA around 9.5 and a success rate at 50% or higher. This will likely be the most effective game of the season for either of these backs and it was fun to have the entire nation get to see it on full display.
Also, big props to Demarcus Robinson for playing his best game since that crazy game against the then-Oakland Raiders in Week 2 of last year. Robinson had a nice 69 receiving yards on the day, his first 60+ receiving yard game since that Week 2 effort in 2019.
For the advanced numbers, Mahomes was great. 0.48 EPA per play and a 12.8 CPOE is outstanding work. For Allen, it's a pretty different story. The Chiefs defense did a great job against his passing.
Of the nine biggest plays of the game for EPA, eight were positive plays for the Chiefs and the other was a defensive pass interference penalty. Five of them came on Mahomes passes, two were on runs from Edwards-Helaire and Williams, and the last one was Daniel Sorensen's fantastic one-handed interception of Allen in Buffalo territory.
This is incredible. The Chiefs' offense improved from 0.229 EPA per play before Monday to 0.260 EPA per play after Monday, letting them jump from fourth to first in the statistic. This jump is a big improvement from last week's chart and puts them in the best tier for teams along with Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
The early-down passing rate fell drastically after Monday's game, going from 61.8% to 58.2% from Week 5 to Week 6. I can let this slide because of how effective the rushing attack was in the game, with Buffalo playing light boxes to try to contain Mahomes, the offensive line putting on a show and all three running backs (Edwards-Helaire, Williams and Darwin Thompson) running the ball effectively, but there is plenty of evidence to show that that is not a consistent way to win football games and the passing rate will have to go back up soon. It was the Chiefs' best rushing performance in the Andy Reid era by a mile, and Reid got two full seasons with a healthy and still elite Jamaal Charles.
Lastly, we have the Football Outsiders numbers, notably Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA currently has a strength of opponent adjustment at 60% and rising until it hits 100% in Week 10. The Chiefs dropped from fifth to sixth in Overall DVOA, remained at second in Offensive DVOA, and fell from ninth to 10th in Defensive DVOA.
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