Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes Explain Chiefs' Recent Dominance on Third Downs

The Chiefs are converting on third down at a historic rate, and the two masterminds of the offense have a decent list of reasons why.

Nov 4, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs' offense is very far from perfect, but things have been going a lot smoother since Andy Reid's club got back from its Week 6 bye.

In contests against the San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City has amassed 28, 27 and 30 points. It's their success on third down, though, that has truly stood out. The reigning Super Bowl champs are a downright scorching 32-for-48 on third down in those games, good for a clip just under 67%. Over a full season, that'd be tops in the sport by a mile.

Luckily for the Chiefs, they sit in first place anyway after their Week 9 victory. Speaking to the media ahead of Sunday's outing against the Denver Broncos, Reid outlined what helps make the offense so good when the sticks move to third down.

“First of all, Matt (Nagy) does a great job supplying the plays on that and the guys buy in and believe in it," Reid said. "You’ve got an offensive line that’s doing a nice job protecting and a quarterback that’s a real good player. Then, the receivers and (Travis) Kelce and Noah (Gray) have done a great job with their execution there and staying alive. So if there was a breakdown here or there or they did a great job in coverage, the guys stay alive and are able to get themselves open. It starts with Matt and what he’s put together for them.”

As a team, contextualizing Kansas City's greatness on third down paints an even scarier picture for opposing defenses. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, the Chiefs' conversion rate is the best mark through nine weeks dating all the way back to 2011. Bill Barnwell of ESPN highlights that their passing EPA on third down ranks first, with the next team being "closer to 11th than they are to first." The Chiefs aren't just good on third down: they're nearly automatic.

A lot of it stems from their quarterback play. Patrick Mahomes is leading Kansas City to a ridiculous 0.35 EPA per play on third downs, also topping every other starter in success rate on late downs. There was no greater example of that than his Monday night performance, which saw him complete 11 of 13 pass attempts on third down and throw all three of his touchdowns in those scenarios.

Mahomes tips his cap to a sound rushing attack and the coaching staff putting the players in good positions to succeed.

“First off, having manageable third downs," Mahomes said. "We are running the ball so well and getting in these third-and-shorts, third-and-mediums, where I can throw the ball underneath and we can still get first downs without trying to force it with these third-and-long situations. I think that contributes to a lot of the success. I think good planning with Nagy and all the different coaches and having a great third down scheme, having answers versus all the coverages the defenses play. Obviously, I feel like we get a lot of different coverages than they might play in a week before, but we’ve kind of seen some of them now so we know and they let me know – if we do get some coverages that have previously worked on us – where to go with the football and I’m able to get the ball out and guys are getting first downs.”

While this current level of supremacy isn't necessarily sustainable, being the best is. With Mahomes at the helm, Kelce still dominating and DeAndre Hopkins gaining confidence in the offense, things can remain smooth on money downs. Sunday will pose an interesting challenge, as the Broncos' defense is the third-best in EPA/play allowed but squarely in the middle of the pack on third down efficiency.

For now, it's smooth sailing for Reid, Mahomes and company.

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