Assessing Chiefs’ Options After Not Tagging Orlando Brown Jr.

Kansas City now has a unique opportunity, but also an expedited decision-making process.

The Kansas City Chiefs shocked the football world an offseason ago when they traded superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in March of 2022. Less than a full year later, general manager Brett Veach made another bold decision. On Monday, it was reported that Kansas City is opting against placing the franchise tag on starting left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. 

Many expected the Chiefs to tag Brown, who already played on one tag in the 2022-23 campaign after he and the team's respective camps couldn't come to an agreement on a long-term contract extension. Another tag not only would have locked the four-time Pro Bowler in at a one-year salary of just under $20 million, but it also had the potential to allow for an extended negotiation window. One day before the deadline to officially designate Brown as tagged, however, that possibility was extinguished.

In light of this development, the Chiefs now have some decisions to make. Brown does, too, as both sides are in different positions now than they were before the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Let's take a look at which paths the team can take, as well as how and why this situation is standing where it's at. 

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (57) against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

All isn't completely lost on the extension front, as the Chiefs and Brown have until March 13 to work out a long-term contract. The window spanning from the publishing of this article to the 13th presents both parties with the opportunity to negotiate exclusively with one another, leaving other teams waiting until the league's legal tampering and free agency periods begin. By having that time to focus on Brown and only Brown if they so choose, Veach and company will be able to make a final push (or two, or more) for a deal. What are the odds of an extension being reached, though? 

They appear to be rather slim. Brown has every incentive to test his value on the open market now, and the Chiefs declining to incur that aforementioned ~$20M cap hit from the tag may indicate that a similar hit via extension this year isn't in the cards for them. Long-term deals can always come with minimal year-one cap charges but even then, both sides weren't very close on guarantees during the summer of 2022. This, combined with a recent report from Nate Taylor of The Athletic that Brown is potentially seeking "at least" $23M per year on a new deal with over $50M of it being guaranteed, makes a murky situation nearly impossible to see through.

Another element of this to consider is why the Chiefs may be playing a game of hardball with Brown and his camp. The player is seeking a contract that would make him one of the highest-paid players at his position, but the production hasn't matched that level of expectation. Brown's pressure rate doesn't compare favorably to other highly-compensated tackles, and he's had prolonged stretches of poor play that don't equate to someone who gets elite-level money. Some team very well could pay him that, and the possibility that it's the Chiefs exists in theory, but there's only so much salary to go around and smart organizations stay ahead of the curve.

Revisiting this for the entire season (reg. + post.):

Williams - 3.42%
Bakhtiari - 2.95%
Tunsil - 2.51%
Stanley - 4.79%
Matthews - 3.29%
Miller - 5.12%
Robinson - 4.84%
Humphries - 3.93%
Bolles - 4.83%
Mailata - 5.68%
Smith - 4.98%
Armstead - 3.31%

Orlando Brown Jr. - 6.49% https://t.co/pIQRyeTlaB

— Zack Eisen (@zackeisen21) March 3, 2023

Kansas City's offensive tackle play was inconsistent in 2022-23, despite the duo of Brown and Andrew Wylie stepping up when it mattered most in Super Bowl LVII. Those tackles frequently required assistance via chip blocks, short-game passing and more in an effort to neutralize those sporadic in-game struggles. The Chiefs are quite aware of the players they have, as well as how they performed relative to their current or future pay.

If Brown is let go, Veach and his staff will then almost surely shift their focus to one of three places: free agency, the trade market and/or the 2023 NFL Draft. This year's free agent class has some risky veteran prospects (Taylor Lewan, potentially Donovan Smith, and there may not be someone better than Brown available via trade. On the other hand, replacing an experienced tackle with another appears to be more in line with the team's needs and timeline than rolling the dice on a rookie. With that said...

Don't rule out a draft night trade-up by Veach. He's had plenty of aggressive-style moves as general manager — including trading for Brown in the first place — and this year's tackle class has some impressive names at the top. Even in tiers two or three, waiting for someone like Oklahoma's Anton Harrison to fall and then moving up in a smaller fashion might be the play. Staying at pick No. 31 and hoping to get a suitable replacement for Brown would be a massive risk, though.

At any rate, this is the new reality the Chiefs and Brown find themselves in. Not much has been ordinary about this entire process, and the resolution appears to be heading towards the 26-year-old playing for another team in 2023 and Kansas City fielding someone else as its starting left tackle once training camp rolls around. An extension (again) isn't completely out of the question but of all the options laid out here, it sure appears to be the least likely one.

Read More: Chiefs Expected to Cut Frank Clark, Unable to Rework Deal