Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Chiefs: It's Good to Be the Champs

The best-case scenario for the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs is obvious: make history. What's KC's downside? Still better than most of the rest of the NFL.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

As NFL teams arrive at training camp to begin preparing for the 2024 season, all 32 teams bring expectations with them. Some teams expect to win their division. Others will be more interested in the NFL Draft by the end of the year. The Kansas City Chiefs, however, have one expectation and one standard of success in 2024: make history.

Leading up to camp, Sports Illustrated's On SI publishers were asked to describe the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the NFL teams they cover. Here's how I broke down the Chiefs' best-case season:

Best case: Three-peat. The back-to-back champions make NFL history on the back of a rejuvenated downfield passing game with Patrick Mahomes spreading the ball around to a retooled group of pass catchers while defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback Trent McDuffie keep Kansas City’s defense operating at a top-five level, even after trading away cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.

Simple enough. If the Chiefs' superstars play like superstars and the pass-catchers can find a flow in KC's offense (as they were unable to do in '23, which still didn't stop them from winning their second-consecutive Super Bowl), the Chiefs can secure a peerless spot in NFL record books. But what if thing go awry?

Worst case: Aside from an injury to Mahomes, it’s hard to see a world where the Chiefs miss the playoffs or even fail to win the AFC West for a ninth consecutive time. Last season was a recipe for offensive disaster and they still finished 11–6 before their Super Bowl run. Even if Travis Kelce looks a year older, the receivers don’t mesh, and Jones has a down year after signing a massive contract, the Chiefs would still be in a better position than the rest of the division.

The AFC West is in a transitional time as the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders all attempt various levels of rebuilds after their previous attempts to dethrone the Chiefs failed. Serious injuries notwithstanding, it's incredibly hard to envision Kansas City dropping the division to this particular group of rivals, even as I'm bullish on the long-term future of the Chargers.

The Chiefs have the highest ceiling and the highest floor in the NFL, leaving them with a clear pair of paths for 2024: Make history, or fall short of expectations. It's a remarkably high standard for any team, but that's the nearly impossible standard that comes with back-to-back championships.

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