Chiefs Over/Under Totals For 2023-2024 Season: Part 2

Assessing some more player prop over/under bets for the Chiefs' younger players this upcoming season.

Veteran players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were featured in the first installment of the Kansas City Chiefs over/under series last week. There were overwhelmingly positive vibes when going through the numbers on those players. This week, will things continue to progress in a positive manner with the younger players? On the flip side, could there be some disappointment coming with the "under" line appearing this week? Let’s take a look.

Skyy Moore receiving yards: 575.5

In Skyy Moore’s rookie season, he had a hard time settling in and moving up the depth chart. He is expected to take that next step in year two, but there are still a lot of unknowns surrounding the second-year player. Moore had 22 catches for 250 yards in 15 regular season games, with his best coming on the road against division rival Los Angeles Chargers where he grabbed six catches for 66 yards. His best moment of the season came in the playoffs when he caught his first-ever NFL touchdown in the Super Bowl. 

For this season, Moore will need to see the field early and often to get over 575 receiving yards. He should see an increase in playing time and targets, but will it be enough to more than double his rookie total? You can hope for it, although I wouldn’t expect it.

Mark’s Pick: UNDER 575.5 yards receiving

Kadarius Toney receiving yards: 630.5

It’s all about getting healthy for Kadarius Toney. He’s had many injuries during his young NFL career but showed signs of becoming a potential star last year during his first stint with the Chiefs. Things didn’t get off to a great start with an injury during training camp, but there is hope Toney will be able to suit up for Week 1. Toney has the potential to be a 1,000-yard receiver. Can he stay healthy and reach his potential? I’m not sure I can fully trust him to play 15-16 games in a season to be able to get there. Heck, I’m not sure he can play 10 games to get to 630 yards. Hopefully, he can prove me wrong this year.

Mark’s Pick: UNDER 630.5 yards receiving

Kadarius Toney receiving touchdowns: 5.5

Much like the receiving yardage total, the touchdown total for Toney will largely fall on if he can stay healthy or not. He had two touchdowns in limited action after coming over from the Giants last season and is the perfect toy for head coach Andy Reid to play with on offense. He can line up in the backfield, in the slot or on the outside. Toney can be used in a variety of ways and as long as he doesn’t have a catastrophic injury, it seems like the Chiefs will try to get the ball in his hands in the red zone. I’m cautiously optimistic that Toney can reach six touchdowns this season based on what he showed in spurts within the offense last season.

Mark’s Pick: OVER 5.5 receiving touchdowns

Isiah Pacheco rushing yards: 775.5

Isiah Pacheco, a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, surged out of nowhere last season to take the starting job from former first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pacheco rushed for 830 yards last season and should see an increased workload this year, so why does the number seem low? He played through most of last season with injuries and is still working back from offseason surgery. Maybe there’s some concern about if he will be able to play 15 games this season. On the other hand, seeing him play through injuries last season leads me to believe he can top last year’s numbers when given an increase in carries. This is an easy one for me.

Mark’s Pick: OVER 775.5 yards rushing

Isiah Pacheco rushing touchdowns: 5.5

Pacheco had five touchdowns last season and with the aforementioned increased workload on the way, you’d expect him to be able to get one additional touchdown in year two. Again, the oddsmakers are likely thinking Pacheco could be dealing with a series of injuries that could keep him out as time goes on this season. Only time will tell, but Pacheco seems like the type of player who will see this number as a slap in the face and work to prove the doubters wrong. I, for one, am not going to doubt this man.

Mark’s Pick: OVER 5.5 rushing touchdowns

George Karlaftis sack total: 7

Karlaftis is coming off a very good — but not great — rookie season. He finished his first year in the NFL with six sacks, so the bump up to seven or eight should be achievable. There are some factors at play here. Will Chris Jones continue to take up double teams in the middle to free Karlaftis on the outside? Who will start opposite Karlaftis on the other side of the line? No matter what happens, Karlaftis has the motor to get after the quarterback and get plenty of effort sacks throughout the season. With a second-year jump in snaps and production very possible, it seems like Karlaftis should be able to get over the seven-sack mark this season.

Mark’s Pick: OVER 7 sacks

It will be an interesting season to follow these younger Chiefs players to see if they can get over the numbers the oddsmakers have set. Most of these guys have what it takes to make that positive leap in year two, but it could take some patience to watch them get there. 

Read More: Chiefs 2023 53-Man Roster Projection