Chiefs Picked to End Season with 13-4 Record; Unbeaten Start is 'Very Lucky'

The Kansas City Chiefs continue to find ways to win games, but a recent win-loss prediction has one outlet questioning the sustainability of that long-term.

Sep 22, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid on the sideline against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs' season has been anything but pretty, yet Andy Reid's team consistently finds ways to win games. Finding alternate routes to close out tough battles is never a bad thing in the grand scheme, although it can definitely create some uncertainty about its sustainability.

There's always a flip side to every narrative. For as impressive as Kansas City's 4-0 start is, they're a few bad breaks from having any other record combination. That, combined with injuries that keep piling up by the week, means a loss or two is likely coming at some point later this season.

One outlet believes four will be in store. In an updated win-loss prediction for Bleacher Report, Brad Gagnon has the Chiefs finishing the regular season with a 13-4 record, meaning Patrick Mahomes and Co. will go 9-4 from Week 5 onward. That 13-win prediction trails only the Buffalo Bills in the AFC.

"Their season thus far is reminding me of Philadelphia's start last year," Gagnon wrote. "They're finding ways to win, but it isn't sustainable considering the state of the roster. They're very lucky to be 4-0."

Heading into their bye week, the Chiefs do have a challenge in the New Orleans Saints and then they come out of the bye with a brutal matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Other difficult games could be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9, Buffalo Bills in Week 11, Houston Texans in Week 16 or Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. How many truly daunting contests are left on the schedule, though? Playing the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos twice, as well as the Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers, leaves plenty of wiggle room on the slate.

It isn't unhinged to predict four losses from Kansas City in 13 games. Heck, they went from 7-2 to 9-6 in just a handful of weeks last season and had to stabilize in time to make a serious postseason push. Starting running back Isiah Pacheco remains out. Both Rice and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown are on the shelf as well. The offense isn't a lock to rebound, and Steve Spagnuolo's defense remains good but isn't the same unit it was in 2023.

While unpopular, Gagnon's take isn't crazy. This writer, admittedly, also had Kansas City going 13-4 before the season. At least one of those hypothetical defeats came before Week 5, however, so now there's space to stumble. Thirteen wins, if that's the number, very well could compete for the AFC's one-seed, home-field advantage and a first-round bye. If not, a team can manage. Not all records are created equal and a record certainly doesn't solely determine whether a playoff team can go on a run.

Just ask last year's Chiefs squad.

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