ESPN Receiver Analytics Shed Positive Light on KC Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice
The Kansas City Chiefs' passing game showed signs of life against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and two specific players were major reasons why. Tight end Travis Kelce led the way in Week 7, hauling in 12 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Rashee Rice also had a nice afternoon, converting on five of six targets for 60 yards and a score of his own.
This isn't anything particularly new for Kansas City, as Kelce and Rice have been the Chiefs' two best go-to options in the passing game this season. Now, there's even more evidence to back it up.
ESPN is advancing the analytics movement, publishing a home for their receiver tracking metrics recently. The "Best NFL Receivers" list is updated weekly and uses tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to "evaluate every route a pass catcher runs and scores his performance in three phases of the game." Those scores range from a low of 0 to a high of 99.
The three specific elements broken down and graded are "open," "catch" and "YAC" (yards after the catch). There's also an "overall" grade given to each pass catcher in the database. Kelce and Rice both hold some interesting marks on the list when compared to their peers around the league. Here are Kelce's stats among all tight ends and wide receivers through Week 7:
- OPEN: 81 (7th)
- CATCH: 57 (32nd)
- YAC: 39 (75th)
- OVERALL: 68 (14th)
And now Rice:
- OPEN: 57 (48th)
- CATCH: 46 (80th)
- YAC: 69 (5th)
- OVERALL: 61 (27th)
These rankings and grades reflect the bread-and-butter of each player, as Kelce is historically good at beating man coverage and finding soft spots in whatever zones opposing defenses throw at him. Putting him at 14th among all pass-catchers in the league also seems accurate, even as he's fought through injuries this year and recently turned 34. For Rice, he's been one of the game's best post-catch threats ever since he made his professional debut. Being the 27th-highest-graded pass catcher is also a plus, with some of his nearby company being Justin Jefferson (25th), Cooper Kupp (31st), DeAndre Hopkins (32nd) and Davante Adams (33rd). Chiefs wideout Skyy Moore ranks 96th with an overall score of 37.
As is the case with any set of analytics, however, this should be taken with a relative grain of salt. For example, Kelce is more sure-handed and effective after the catch than his rankings suggest and Rice almost surely isn't actually a top 30 weapon in the passing game this year. With that said, these rankings do provide some context to the productive seasons both players are having. As the Chiefs' offense continues to attempt to find its footing among the NFL's best, look for these two players to be relied on heavily.
