In Year Three, Where Does Mecole Hardman Fit With the Chiefs?

The former second-round pick was expected to make a major jump in his third year in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. That third-year jump hasn't landed.

Early into last Sunday’s primetime matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, NBC analysts Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels had a thought-provoking back-and-forth when discussing the Chiefs’ receivers, particularly after a pair of successive drops from Byron Pringle.

“I tell you,” Collinsworth began. “If you are not named Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, you do not want to drop balls.” Following the second drop, Michaels declared, “Might be the last time they call his number tonight.” In perfect synchronization, NBC’s feed panned to Andy Reid’s face. Reid's face was a stoic one, though likely and understandably weary, given his team’s third-ranked standing in drops this season (20).

As fate would have it, Pringle would only see one more target over the next three quarters. That sequence became another addition to the Chiefs’ season-long venture to find a consistent No. 3 receiver to couple alongside Hill and Kelce. Through that lens, there’s a chance to evaluate the Chiefs’ first choice to begin the season: third-year wideout Mecole Hardman.

From a football perspective, it’s difficult to have a tougher start individually than Hardman has put together. The speedster again saw his snap count drop — since Week 7, his snap count has gone as follows: 49, 40, 42, 24, 12 and then just nine against Denver — and to boot, Hardman saw a demotion in his return work. Even his weekly across-the-formation jet sweep couldn’t be crossed off on the bingo sheet on Sunday night.

Here are the breakdowns of #Chiefs wide receivers Josh Gordon, Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson & Byron Pringle. pic.twitter.com/BgtnLbt2oe

— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) November 22, 2021

In announcing that cornerback Mike Hughes would remain the team’s punt returner, special teams coordinator Dave Toub cited the need for a “spark,” presumably one that Hardman hadn’t fully provided.

“We’re trying to get a spark,” Toub said. “We’re not giving up on Mecole, by any means. He is probably the most dynamic guy we have. But just a little bit, maybe just sit back and watch a little bit and watch from the sideline. Maybe that’ll help your confidence a little bit and watch somebody else do it.”

On that same topic, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy noted that Hardman would be “given that opportunity” to continue blossoming as a receiver. Though, at its current rate, how does one evaluate Hardman’s third year, the supposed breakout year?

If you squint hard enough, it wasn’t too long ago that Hardman was on the precipice of once again surpassing his statistics from the season prior. Even after the snap count droppage, Hardman has either surpassed or remains on-pace to create career-highs in targets (85), receptions (61), yards (617), first-down catches (31), catch percentage (71.7), and yards after catch (470). He’s also sliced his drop percentage from 12.9 percent in 2020 to 3.3 percent in 2021. Granted, the bar to hurdle beyond that was low. Still, Hardman's standing among the pass-catchers has been a respectable one, holding third in catches and better than a whopping 10 teammates in drop rate.

In studying Hardman, it’s possible that it could be a case of overthinking. He certainly wouldn’t be the first to check that box. A few weeks ago, he had a sequence that stood out, in which he returned a punt for three yards against Green Bay and almost appeared unsure of if he was supposed to take the field on the opening play of the first drive. To his credit, he’s also creating positives from his limited opportunities with aggressive runs after the catch, one of which nearly turned into a score two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys.

With the way the Chiefs’ opponents have played them this year — cue the obligatory two-high safety note — changes have been made. Hardman’s 4.3 40-yard dash time hasn’t been put to its greatest use. The aforementioned jet sweeps create a horizontal advantage, but not a vertical one, and his 6.8 average depth of target (aDOT) speaks to that. Heading into 2021-22, Hardman was No. 3 across the entire NFL in touchdowns of 30+ yards or more. 

Most REC TDs of 30+ yards since 2019:

🔹Tyreek Hill - 10
🔹A.J. Brown - 8
🔹Mecole Hardman - 7 pic.twitter.com/T59BEIJ71y

— PFF (@PFF) April 4, 2021

He’s enjoyed no such success this year. Though, in the end, that could be a positive for Hardman. He’s been out-snapped by Pringle, Demarcus Robinson and even Josh Gordon on occasion this year, though none of them have necessarily run routes or caught passes that he hasn’t. One could guess that all of that, paired with his familiarity with the system, could be in his favor when it’s time to negotiate something beyond his rookie deal.

In the meantime, Reid’s declaration that the Chiefs “still have a lot of trust” in him has to be taken as-is. For everyone involved, it’s been a season of twists, turns, ups, downs, spins, stops and starts. Here’s to hoping that the next time Hardman gets a sustained opportunity, there’s much less of that, and much more of that straight-line speed he’s become so renowned for.