Forget the Ceiling: It’s Time to Acknowledge KC Chiefs’ Floor

In a "what have you done for me lately?" league, the Chiefs are living off a benefit of the doubt they continue to actively argue against.

It's on record that the Kansas City Chiefs picked a good time to have a down year. After all, most of the other AFC contenders have serious questions surrounding them and there appears to be just one NFC team soaring above the rest. As 2023 comes to a close and 2024 soon begins, there isn't a much better season to at least be in the mix ahead of the playoffs.

Less than a year ago, it was Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company that hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as world champions. The roster isn't missing too many components of that Super Bowl-winning team, so this is enough for Kansas City to win it all... right? They'll figure it out... right?

As always, it would be foolish to completely discount the Chiefs' ceiling. The aforementioned trio and a championship-caliber defense make a nice foundation to build from. 

With that said, the 2023-24 version of the team hitting its 100th-percentile outcome seems like more of an exception than an expectation at this point. More than 16 weeks into the season, the Chiefs haven't flipped the switch or figured things out. A Christmas Day loss to the Las Vegas Raiders not only led to a failed AFC West clinch and an elimination from contention for the AFC's No. 1 seed, but it also served as a reminder.

All year long, Kansas City has lived off the benefit of the doubt. It's time to put the ceiling on the back burner and focus more on the mess that's boiling over right at the front of the stove.

Dating back to Week 7, Reid's team was 6-1 and coming off a 14-point win over a division rival. Mahomes had a 424-yard passing performance and Kelce broke out for 179 yards of his own. After a Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs had won six games in a row. Despite some glaring weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball, there was hope that Kansas City could sort it out on the fly and continue to win in the process. It seemed to be rooted in logic.

Since then, however, the Chiefs have lost five of eight games. After ranking fourth in EPA per play and third in dropback EPA per play in Weeks 1-7, Reid's offense is 18th and 20th, respectively, in Weeks 8-16. After committing two turnovers on Monday, they're tied for dead last in the league in turnover differential at -10 and are tied for the sixth-most giveaways in all of football with 26. During that span, Mahomes has 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions with 18 sacks and an 83.5 passer rating. He's averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt. Prior to that, he had 15 touchdowns, just six interceptions, seven sacks, a 101.0 rating and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt.

In recent weeks, the Chiefs made some tweaks to their receiver rotations and also changed their plan of attack. Getting rookie wideout Rashee Rice the ball close to the line of scrimmage became the go-to option on offense. It worked, yet it still seemed like a bridge for another evolution to take place. On Christmas, Las Vegas practically dared Kansas City to attack down the field and it simply didn't happen. The same issues — receiver separation, Kelce and Mahomes not being 100% effective, drops, penalties, turnovers — were present. 

Perhaps the most glaring thing of all is that Reid didn't have any answers on Monday. The ability to get gritty, focus and persevere wasn't there from a team-wide lens. When that's combined with a dangerous floor and a lack of consistency overall, it leads to what the 2023 Chiefs appear to be: a good team that will make the playoffs but shouldn't necessarily be expected to beat multiple other good teams in a row en route to a championship. Mahomes believes if things are cleaned up, it can and potentially will still happen.

It very well could be true that the Chiefs are capable of beating anyone if they play a clean game. After all, they were very close to winning against the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles and they did beat the Miami Dolphins even after an anemic offensive performance in the second half. Spagnuolo's defense is great and Dave Toub is one of the best special teams coaches in the sport. Once again, however, it's the offense led by three future Hall of Fame talents that's the focal point. That used to be a good thing. Now, it's a consistent reminder of why the team is underperforming and why it could be sent home early if that floor is scuffed again. If Kansas City elevates to new heights, it should be viewed as more of a surprise than something everyone saw coming. 

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