Grading Xavier Worthy's Rookie Season So Far: Numbers Don't Tell the True Story

One outlet's grade of Xavier Worthy's rookie year misses the point — and the problems — of Worthy's first NFL season.

Oct 27, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) in the second half against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

When the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy with the No. 28 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, what did you expect? What would have met your expectations for a "successful" rookie season for the speedster who turned 21 years old two days after he was drafted?

Those questions are worth asking as Worthy nears the end of his first regular season in the pros, particularly when attempting to assess how his year has gone so far.

In an exercise for Bleacher Report, Brent Sobleski gave an early-December grade to all 32 first-round picks from the '24 draft. Here's how Sobleski broke down Worthy's first 12 games of NFL action:

Kansas City Chiefs: WR Xavier Worthy, C
Everyone wondered how the rest of the NFL could let the Chiefs draft the fastest player ever, after Xavier Worthy's record-breaking 40-yard-dash effort at this year's NFL combine.
However, the 21-year-old hasn't been the threat some thought he could be. He's not the next Tyreek Hill in Kansas City. So far, he's been a solid option on a team searching for any wide receiver to help Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
This year's 28th overall pick has produced more of as of late, with 13 receptions for 161 yards over the last three games. His grade can receive a bump if he continues to contribute more down the stretch.

My biggest issue with this analysis is the idea that Worthy "hasn't been the threat some thought he could be." Watching the Chiefs' offense — and frankly, even a discerning look at more informative stats beyond the simplest parts of the box score — dispatches that idea with relative ease.

The real story of Worthy's rookie season can't be told without memories of missed connections. Worthy and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have now suffered four impactful close calls deep downfield. Let's revisit those.

In Week 9, Worthy ran himself out of bounds on a deep shot, turning a likely touchdown into a long incompletion. In Week 10, Mahomes missed a potential score to Worthy by floating an inaccurate throw out of bounds. In Week 12, KC's lone loss of the season, the pair failed on another sideline toe-dragging near-completion. In Week 13, Worthy was open for a game-sealing deep ball, but Mahomes was rocked by a blitzer and narrowly overthrew the rookie.

There are four deep shots from the Chiefs' last five games that should have resulted in completions (and at least two or three touchdowns) that would have turned Worthy's "C" season into a dark horse Rookie of the Year campaign. While the first miscue was a rookie mistake from Worthy, the second was entirely on Mahomes. The third is more of a toss-up, but Worthy was alone in space and Mahomes made the reception much more difficult than it needed to be. Blame for the fourth miss appears to fall to tight end Travis Kelce, who whiffed on the blitzer who forced the early and off-target throw from Mahomes.

Hypotheticals don't score points, but they do matter when discussing how an individual player has performed. For Worthy, the details don't (or at least, shouldn't) stop there.

Last season, then-rookie Rashee Rice didn't fully take over as the Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver until Week 12. While Rice had more receptions and yards through his first 10 games (36 catches, 420 yards, four touchdowns vs. Worthy's 24 catches for 307 yards and four touchdowns, plus 10 carries for 44 yards and two rushing touchdowns), Worthy's role in the offense is completely legitimate.

Worthy has played 63% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps this season, making him the most-used receiver on the roster. Last year, Rice finished his rookie regular season with 55% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps, including a game off in Week 18.

Even without the vital details of where Worthy's season has narrowly missed more eye-popping statistics, Worthy's actual production has been reasonable. He's on pace to record just under 600 yards in his first year as a pro, in head coach Andy Reid's infamously complex offense. A season-ending injury for Rice and a season-threatening injury for Marquise "Hollywood" Brown forced Worthy into an accelerated program for his rookie year. Worthy certainly hasn't aced every test, but a more nuanced view of his first season shows much more promise than a glance at his box score.

Read More: Andy Reid's 'Main Concern' Regarding Xavier Worthy's Development (and Why It Isn't Actually Concerning)