How Much Better Can Isiah Pacheco Get In Year Two?

The Chiefs struck gold once more with seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco. In a perfect world, he should be well-positioned to be even better in his second act.

When the average Kansas City Chiefs observer ponders over Brett Veach’s year-to-year brilliance in the NFL Draft, the odds are his picks in the trenches and on the defensive side are likely what immediately come to mind. If there’s one area that Veach holds near-exclusive bragging rights to, it’s come in his foresight, perennially finding capable starters and Super Bowl contributors on Day 3. His most recent needle in the proverbial haystack: Isiah Pacheco.

Pacheco’s pizzazz and angry-at-the-ground running style already make it easy to forget; he was selected a mere 12 spots before “Mr. Irrelevant,” Brock Purdy, with the No. 251 selection. For as big of a surprise as his first year was, the history behind it also deserves recognition. For instance, Pacheco’s rookie rushing yards (830) rank No. 2 in NFL history among seventh-round picks. Among some of the competition: a Mount Rushmore-caliber athlete (Bo Jackson), a former Madden cover star (Peyton Hillis) and a former AP Most Valuable Player finalist (Jamal Anderson).

It’s perhaps just as unlikely to hear a seventh-round pick openly speaking of a goal to reach the 1,000-yard rushing mark in year two. Should he do so, Pacheco would become the first Chief to surpass that number since Kareem Hunt’s 1,327-yard campaign in 2017. 

Thus far, Pacheco has outpunched his weight. What truly should we expect from the former Scarlet Knight in the coming months? Pacheco "took another grown man’s job” in 2022; what else does he take in 2023?

Expect more in the receiving game from Pacheco in 2023

As a wise man once said (maybe?) in order to make plays, you have to actually be on the field. From his first run, Pacheco proved himself plenty capable of being a contributor to the Chiefs’ diverse offense. But his ceiling couldn’t truly be reached until he proved his worth as a pass protector and receiving threat out of the backfield. Midway through the campaign, Pacheco appeared plenty capable in this area, which helps paint the backdrop of what his 2023 could look like.

Jerick McKinnon remains sure to take on the bulk of the snaps in obvious passing situations. The likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and whoever else potentially slots in at some point throughout the season — either La’Mical Perine or Deneric Prince — are sure to cut into those touches, too. But as the “starter,” Pacheco averaged 27.5 offensive snaps per game from Week 7 onward. Knowing all of those snaps won’t be running plays, the opportunities were there for Pacheco to make plays as a receiver, as such:

Having Patrick Mahomes under center immediately grants you 1,000 ways to cut a defense in half. Down the stretch last season, having Pacheco roll into slip screens, often across the formation, became a bread-and-butter play call for Andy Reid and the staff. 

For as much as observers question Pacheco’s ability to be a consistent two-dimensional player, he did average 18.2 receiving yards over his final 10 games (postseason included). That may not sound impressive but extrapolated over a 17-game season, that would equate to 309.2 yards, which would’ve ranked No. 17 in 2022 among running backs. That number holds even more significance when factoring in his projected rushing totals.

By season’s end, the Chiefs felt comfortable enough to even have Pacheco lined up out wide as a receiver on occasion. The results weren’t game-breaking, though they do illustrate how versatile his role could be in 2023-24. 

Defenders respected his presence as a potential pass-catcher enough that it sometimes caused miscommunications; take this example, where his flare out of the backfield draws in Foyesade Oluokun and forces Josh Allen to withdraw from carrying Travis Kelce’s vertical route, vacating the hook/curl zone altogether, leading to a completion for No. 87.

In an offense with Reid as the overseer, where positions are nothing more than an abbreviated word, Pacheco has both the ability to get open and be schemed open. For that reason, his receiving and all-purpose yards should be on the uptick.

Pacheco’s statistics should look much gaudier in 2022-23

It might’ve been easy to overlook given the many positives of last year’s Super Bowl champions, but there was a six-week stretch from Week 10 to Week 15 in which Pacheco was the second-most productive rusher across the entire NFL. Over that span, he churned out 480 yards on just 95 carries, second only to fellow AFC West foe Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Perhaps even more impressive: Pacheco did all of that despite playing under 50 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in four of those six games. Factoring in that Pacheco will be the quote-unquote “top dog” of Kansas City’s backfield now provides some added excitement from both a real-life and fantasy perspective.

Despite not becoming a starter until Week 7, Pacheco still finished No. 14 in carries inside the 10-yard line (20) and No. 23 in carries inside the 20-yard line (30), numbers that, on the NFL’s most explosive offense with arguably its best offensive line, are likely to only rise. 

Most would agree that Pacheco’s vision and patience included as the season progressed last season, and the numbers reflect that over the second half. On-pace numbers aren’t always the most accurate, but Pacheco’s final nine games of 2022 — 126 carries, 633 yards and four touchdowns with 10 receptions for 117 yards — would expand to 238 carries, 1,196 yards and eight touchdowns with 19 receptions for 221 yards to boot.

Relatively reasonable, said numbers would vault the 24-year-old into that discussion among the top 10 backs in the game. With a full year to study his own tape, grow more accustomed to that front five and heal fully from his two offseason surgeries, there’s little reason to believe he won’t pick up where he left off and hit the ground running with a purpose.

Not that Pacheco ever needed any motivation to hit the ground running beforehand.

Read More: Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Roster Cut and Practice Squad Tracker