Second-Year Jump: Will Wide Receiver Mecole Hardman's Production Increase in 2020?

How will Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman grow in his second season? In a talented WR room, how large can Hardman's role become?

The NFL, like many professional sports, starts with a steep learning curve. Most athletes use their rookie seasons to figure things out and take a leap in production for year two. According to Pro Football Focus, the rookie to sophomore production in the NFL typically increases by an eye-popping 75%.

Reminder that an unproductive rookie season isn't the end of the world. Players tend to increase their production by 70-80% after the rookie year.

Also a good reminder that a turnaround via the draft usually takes at least two years. pic.twitter.com/mjU0s1FocC

— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) February 17, 2020

More opportunities plus increased productivity seems like a reasonable cause and effect. Let’s take a look at one of the Chiefs’ players who recently graduated from their rookie campaign and see how he could help the team even more in 2020.

Wide receiver Mecole Hardman was the Chiefs’ first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He was drafted into a crowded wide receiver room, but there was some uncertainty with Tyreek Hill’s offseason and Sammy Watkins’ long history of injuries. 

In his debut season, Hardman made the most of his opportunities when given the chance. In 41 targets, he had 26 receptions for 538 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged 20.7 yards per reception, leading the league among pass-catchers with more than 25 receptions.

Mecole Hardman led the NFL in yards per reception last year (minimum 25 receptions).

Hardman only had 26 receptions but went for 538 yards and 20.7 YPC.

Mike Williams had 49/1,001/20.4. A.J. Brown had 52/1,051/20.2. Nobody else was even close.

— Joshua Brisco (@jbbrisco) May 16, 2020

Hardman also contributed a combined 871 yards and one touchdown as a return specialist and was rewarded with a Pro Bowl nod for his efforts on special teams.

With the oddity and uncertainty of the 2020 offseason, the Chiefs were able to retain their entire wide receiver group. This makes it nearly impossible to predict if Hardman’s usage will see a major increase as one would typically expect from year one to year two.

Seeing how this team is currently constructed, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Head Coach Andy Reid keep Hardman in a similar role he held last season. He is a big-play threat on offense and special teams and it seems reasonable for Reid to pick and choose when he utilizes Hardman’s unique skill set. 

If Reid thinks he can increase Hardman’s role while keeping his production high, making the jump from 40 targets to 70 targets doesn’t seem completely out of the realm of possibility. If his production increased with those targets, then 900 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns don’t seem too far-fetched.

However, with so many returning weapons on the roster, it could limit Hardman’s ceiling for 2020. When it comes to seeing Hardman truly hit his stride in the Chiefs’ offense, a third-year jump in 2021 might be more realistic.