Sorting and Solving the Chiefs' Wide Receiver Conundrum

With all the Chiefs' wide receivers getting healthy for the end of the season and playoff run, how will playing time get divided among the group?

Nearing the end of the 2022 regular season, it's still not clear what the Kansas City Chiefs are doing with their wide receiver room. There have been injuries that caused a shuffling in the lineup and forced some players into larger roles, but as the group gets healthy and the playoffs approach, how will the wide receiver snap count and production be divvied up?

...Well, it's complicated.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is the only receiver on the Chiefs whose role is clear and obvious. Smith-Schuster has separated himself from the pack by becoming Patrick Mahomes's second-favorite target behind only Travis Kelce. He has been a reliable pass-catcher in the intermediate areas of the field, showing the ability to rack up yards after the catch, and he has had his number called in critical situations. He is quietly pacing to go over 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in his career. After Smith-Schuster, the pecking order gets fuzzy.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was brought in as a free agent this offseason alongside Smith-Schuster and is second in receiving yards on the team. He only needs 59 yards in the next three weeks to surpass his previous career-high in receiving yards. The problem for Valdes-Scantling isn't his production; it is the level of consistency from play to play.

One play, Valdes-Scantling will make a nearly impossible catch, and the next, he will drop an easy ball. That lack of consistency has shown to be a drive-killer during parts of the season, and you can't help but wonder if that will come back to bite them in a crucial spot in the playoffs. Oddly enough, the most-used wide receiver since Week 10 has been neither Smith-Schuster nor Valdes-Scantling. That title belongs to Justin Watson.

Sep 11, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11) , wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (9) and wide receiver Skyy Moore (24) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Watson was a question mark even to make the roster before the season, and now he is getting the most snaps of any wide receiver on the team. It shouldn't make sense. He does certain things that benefit the Chiefs on offense; he's a vertical threat with his speed, a bigger-body presence as a blocker in the run game, and he has the trust of Mahomes and the coaching staff. However, he is statistically one of the worst wide receivers in the league in terms of production. For wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season, he ranks 111 out of 121 in yards per route run with 0.92. That puts him last on the Chiefs and more than half a yard below the league average. Watson is a solid player to have around as a depth piece, but playing the most snaps on the team in this stretch is perplexing.

Similar to how Watson's high usage is confusing, Skyy Moore's limited playing time is very puzzling. Moore was taken early in this past draft and expected to have a role on a team with basically all new pieces around Mahomes. However, that hasn't been the case, and the "why?" has gone unanswered.

Moore has shown his elite route-running, strong hands, and explosiveness when given the opportunity on the field. Mahomes has also shown to have trust in him in big spots. The only explanation that makes sense as to why Moore doesn't get more snaps is that it is just that it's taking longer than expected for him to adjust from a mid-level college program to the NFL, something we are not privy to by just looking at the film.

The final two pieces of the Chiefs' receiving room have missed significant time this season but are tracking to be healthy for the postseason. Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney play very similar roles for the Chiefs' offense, and it is one they have missed in their absence. Hardman and Toney are both dynamic athletes who are dangerous with the ball in their hands. Hardman has more trust and experience in the offense, as he has been in Kansas City since 2019. However, Toney is the better and more talented player when healthy. He brings everything Hardman can do but can be a true receiver downfield and is more physical after the catch. Toney's return may unlock a new level to this offense that we haven't seen yet this year. He is a weapon that defenses need to account for on every play because of his game-breaking talent.

Nov 6, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) takes the field prior to a game against the Tennessee Titans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

If and when all the wide receivers are healthy, the snap count (from most to least) should culminate with Smith-Schuster, Toney, Valdes-Scantling, Hardman, Moore, and then Watson. Unfortunately, the Chiefs don't look at it the same way. If the recent weeks are any indicator, the three wide receivers who will get the most snaps in the postseason are Smith-Schuster, Hardman, and Watson. After that, Toney and Valdes-Scantling will play a rotational role and contribute to the offense. This leaves Moore as an odd man out, and unless the Chiefs coaching staff has something up their sleeves that they have been hiding, the expectations for Moore should be low for the rest of the season.

The Chiefs have had 14 games to sort through the wide receiver rotation. They have shown who they trust and prefer. Though fans may not agree with it, there is no indication that it'll change during the most critical part of the season.