Kansas City Chiefs Free Agency Previews and Predictions

The Chiefs have a large number of players entering free agency this offseason, and many will be finding new teams in 2022.

The Kansas City Chiefs will enter the 2022 NFL offseason with plenty of decisions to be made. Even after placing the franchise tag on left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., general manager Brett Veach and the Chiefs will have to make their final calls on star safety Tyrann Mathieu, defensive end Melvin Ingram, cornerback Charvarius Ward and a large number of starters and role players who have contributed over recent years.

Who are the Chiefs likely to retain, and who's most likely to find a new home for 2022? Let's take a look. Before we get going, a few quick notes:
First, these are my predictions, not necessarily what I would do.
Second, percentages are funny things! Something with a mere 33% chance of happening sounds quite unlikely. But I knew my days-old leftovers carried a 33% chance of giving me food poisoning, I wouldn't eat it. (...Probably.) A slim-percentage chance is no guarantee, but it's my best prediction for where the Chiefs and the player in question will land as free agency begins.
Third, snap counts referenced in this story are regular-season snap counts courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

With that established, here's my preview of each of the Chiefs' pending unrestricted free agents and the percentage chance that they return to Kansas City for 2022.

LT Orlando Brown Jr.

Oct 3, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown (57) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

When the Chiefs traded for offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. ahead of the 2021 season, they knew he would be forcing them to make a decision less than a year later. Now, after a solid first season as KC’s left tackle, Brown is in line for a substantial payday. The Chiefs have reportedly placed the franchise tag on Brown, but an eventual multi-year deal is almost certainly still the goal for both sides. If a deal can't be reached, Brown could play out 2022 under the tag.

So, why hasn't Brown risen to a 100% chance to return? Maybe in some universe, the Chiefs run into a negotiation wall and decide they could trade Brown and take another shot at their left tackle of the future. I wouldn't bet on that happening.
Chance to return: 99%

S Tyrann Mathieu

Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs free safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) celebrates during the second half of the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Tyrann Mathieu is clearly a player who the Chiefs have valued over his three years in Kansas City, but when both sides failed to come to terms on an extension before the 2021 season, the potential of a 2022 exit became a legitimate possibility. Mathieu will be 30 at the start of the 2022 season and general manager Brett Veach has frequently brought up the reality of salary cap restrictions when discussing Mathieu's future. It’s hard to envision the Chiefs’ defense without Mathieu, but last offseason would have made for a friendlier negotiation window.
Chance to return: 35%

DE Melvin Ingram

Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Melvin Ingram III (24) celebrates with defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) after a play against the Denver Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

After the Chiefs courted Melvin Ingram before the 2021 season, Ingram signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers and was later traded to KC for a sixth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. From that point on, Ingram was the Chiefs' most productive edge-rusher. General manager Brett Veach has said the team will "keep the dialogue open" with Ingram regarding 2022, but Ingram will be 33 years old when the 2022 season begins.
Chance to return: 50%

CB Charvarius Ward

Jan 12, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward (35) is introduced before a AFC Divisional Round playoff football game against the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps the most underrated member of the Chiefs' defense and among the most underrated cornerbacks in football, Ward entered the league as an undrafted free agent with the Dallas Cowboys and rose to become the Chiefs' top outside cornerback over his four years with the team. The Chiefs have not invested in the cornerback position much over the course of general manager Brett Veach's tenure, and Ward will have a chance at securing his first big-time payday as an unrestricted free agent. KC's defense would take a legitimate hit if Ward leaves, but a substantial multi-year deal seems unlikely given the Chiefs' recent history at the position.
Chance to return: 30%

S Daniel Sorensen

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Mike Hughes (21) celebrates with safety Daniel Sorensen (49) after scoring against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

During a season in which he became nationally discussed as one of the most frequently attacked defensive backs in the NFL, Daniel Sorensen still took the sixth-most snaps on the Chiefs' defense, third among safeties. With the potential exit of Mathieu and a lack of veterans at linebacker, I think Sorensen is most likely back for one more year. If KC re-signs Mathieu and linebacker Ben Niemann, perhaps defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would have enough "veteran presence" to move on from Sorensen, but I'll believe it when I see it. Regardless, the Chiefs should be looking for young upgrades at safety through the draft.
Chance to return: 60% 

CB Mike Hughes

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Mike Hughes (21) returns a fumble for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

An up-and-down addition from last offseason, former highly-drafted cornerback Mike Hughes had some of the Chiefs’ most memorable highlights and lowlights on the defensive side of the ball in 2021. His return will depend heavily on his cost, even as he would be exiting a thinning cornerback room. If the Chiefs see remaining potential, it could be worth retaining Hughes in hopes he wouldn't be a top-three corner for the team in 2022.
Chance to return: 35%

WR Byron Pringle

Nov 21, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Byron Pringle (13) leaves the field after the win over the Dallas Cowboys at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Among a group of wide receivers without a clear No. 2, Byron Pringle earned his work in 2021, seeing the field for nearly half of the Chiefs' regular-season offensive snaps. His ceiling is limited and he should be a part-time player for KC's offense, but Pringle can keep a spot on this roster for several more years with the type of production he showed last season.
Chance to return: 80%

WR Demarcus Robinson

Jan 3, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (11) runs the ball against Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Tevaughn Campbell (37) during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Demarcus Robinson played the second-most snaps among Chiefs wide receivers in 2021, behind Tyreek Hill and narrowly ahead of Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle. Still, Robinson never made a compelling case as KC's No. 2 receiver. Robinson saw a decrease in targets, catches, yards and yards per target from his previous two seasons. With the Chiefs poised to retool their receiver room this offseason, Robinson may be due for a change of scenery.
Chance to return: 20%

RB Jerick McKinnon

Aug 14, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon (1) smiles on the bench during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

After an uneventful regular season with just 12 carries, Jerick McKinnon may have been the Chiefs' best back in the playoffs, and the offense looked comfortable with him on the field, harkening back to the days of Damien Williams. McKinnon's open-market price tag should be relatively minimal, so the Chiefs would have no reason not to bring him back, potentially for a larger role in 2022 if he can stay healthy.
Chance to return: 70%

RB Darrel Williams

Jan 2, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Darrel Williams (31) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Darrel Williams had the best year of his four-year NFL career in 2021, taking advantage of some key opportunities in the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Williams is well-rounded and clearly trusted by the Chiefs' offense, but his ceiling is limited. KC shouldn't overpay to keep Williams around if he's offered a bigger payday elsewhere, but if his market is limited, he should be welcomed back.
Chance to return: 40%

DT Derrick Nnadi

Sep 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs nose tackle Derrick Nnadi (91) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Another often-overlooked member of the Chiefs' defense, Derrick Nnadi was the only member of the Chiefs' 2018 draft class who made a sizable impact during his rookie contract, and as a run-stopping defensive tackle, he played 40% of the Chiefs' defensive snaps in 2021. Nnadi recorded three sacks in '21, bringing his career total to four. Nnadi hasn't been a pass-rushing menace, but he certainly makes the Chiefs' defense better. Now entering free agency for the first time, the Chiefs will have to see if another team believes Nnadi could be worth a larger contract than what they'd be willing to offer.
Chance to return: 40%

DT Jarran Reed

Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks to pass the ball as Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Jarran Reed (90) pursues during the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs brought Jarran Reed in on their largest one-year deal of the 2021 offseason, and Reed played nearly 64% of the Chiefs' defensive snaps and started all 17 regular-season games. Still, after a slow start, Reed recorded just 2.5 sacks in the regular season and one in the playoffs. Especially if Reed is looking for a longer-term deal, he's likely to be one-and-done in KC.
Chance to return: 10%

LB Ben Niemann

Oct 3, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Ben Niemann (56) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Following the release of veteran linebacker Anthony Hitchens, Ben Niemann will likely have a home in Kansas City for at least another year. While the Chiefs could still stand to add a more productive third linebacker behind the young duo of Willie Gay Jr. and Nick Bolton, the Chiefs would have plenty of reason to keep Niemann around as the cheap veteran in the room despite his very legitimate limitations.
Chance to return: 70%

QB Chad Henne

Jan 30, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) huddles with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and quarterback Chad Henne (4) during a timeout in the second half of the AFC Championship game against the Cincinnati Bengals at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

In 2021, former Texas/SMU quarterback Shane Buechele was added to the Chiefs’ active roster after the Arizona Cardinals tried to sign him off the Chiefs’ practice squad. That’s a level of commitment the Chiefs haven’t shown to a backup-quarterback-of-the-future in recent years, but Chad Henne, at age 36, will most likely retain KC’s backup spot for another season unless he calls it a career.
Chance to return: 85%

TE Blake Bell

Jan 12, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Blake Bell (81) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

A blocking-first tight end who played roughly 27% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps and 36% of their special teams snaps, Blake Bell’s return would make sense for both sides unless the Chiefs want to attempt to find a younger long-term solution at TE3.
Chance to return: 70%

OL Andrew Wylie

Buried down the depth chart at the start of the 2021 season, Andrew Wylie ended the year as the Chiefs' top snap-taker at right tackle, following injuries to first-year tackle Lucas Niang and veteran Mike Remmers. After a solid season at right tackle (and valued for his flexibility across the offensive line), the Chiefs would certainly love to retain Wylie if his price didn't become too high after proving himself as a capable player who another team may outbid the Chiefs for.
Chance to return: 65%

RT Mike Remmers

Nov 8, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Mike Remmers (75) enters the field during warm ups before the game against the Carolina Panthers at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The aforementioned Mike Remmers, who played well at right tackle in 2020 for the Chiefs, was sidelined with injuries for the vast majority of 2021, playing in just four games for the Chiefs. Remmers will be 33 years old next season, coming off a year lost to injury. More due to age and health than performance, the Chiefs will probably look elsewhere for tackle depth.
Chance to return: 30%

OL Kyle Long

Jan 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs guard Andrew Wylie (77) and guard Kyle Long (69) leave the field after the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Long's unretirement ahead of the 2021 season was a noteworthy story, but after breaking a bone in his leg during OTAs, Long's season was delayed and then never truly started, as he never played a snap even after being activated. The Chiefs love versatile linemen, but what does Long have left?
Chance to return: 20%

C/G Austin Blythe

Aug 14, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs center Austin Blythe (66) blocks San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Kevin Givens (90) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Signed to a one-year deal last offseason, Austin Blythe was the Chiefs’ veteran stopgap at center before they drafted Creed Humphrey in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Humphrey put up elite production at center, so Blythe will have to go elsewhere if he hopes to see the field in 2022. If he’s comfortable as a cheap depth piece, the Chiefs would likely be willing to retain him for another year.
Chance to return: 30%

FB Michael Burton

Dec 5, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs fullback Michael Burton (45) celebrates after a first down against the Denver Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Andy Reid’s Chiefs always carry a fullback, and Michael Burton seems to be a successful successor to Anthony Sherman after spending 2021 in KC. It’s not where I would use a roster spot, but after a year of converted short-yardage runs and playing nearly half of KC's special teams snaps (and less than eight percent of the offensive snaps), I expect him to return.
Chance to return: 80%

LB Dorian O'Daniel

Feb 4, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Dorian O'Daniel (44) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The No. 100 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Dorian O'Daniel's role never lived up to his collegiate hype. Despite his reputation as an excellent athlete at the position, O'Daniel's spot in the Chiefs' defense hasn't developed. Even after a year in which he played just 24 defensive snaps, O'Daniel's role as a core special-teams player could bring him back on a minimal deal. From O'Daniel's perspective, a new team and scheme would likely allow him to make a fresh impression elsewhere.
Chance to return: 25%

S Armani Watts

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Armani Watts (23) celebrates on field after a defensive fumble recovery against the Las Vegas Raiders during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Another 2018 draft pick (No. 124) who never saw substantial development, Armani Watts only saw the field in borderline-emergency situations in 2021, playing four percent of defensive snaps and nearly 67% of special teams snaps. Despite the Chiefs' issues at safety in '21, Watts still never seemed to get a legitimate opportunity. If the Chiefs are out on Watts as a defender, they should replace his special teams work some other way. For Watts, a change of scenery would also most likely bring his best chance to see the field as a safety again.
Chance to return: 10%

DE Alex Okafor

Dec 12, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) fumbles the ball as he is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Alex Okafor (97) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Okafor returned to the Chiefs in 2021 on a second-consecutive one-year deal, adding veteran depth to a thin defensive end rotation. Okafor was quiet last season, recording 1.5 sacks and 23 tackles while playing more than 460 snaps.
Chance to return: 10%

Regardless of how the team navigates this long list of pending free agents, the Chiefs seem all but guaranteed to have a significant amount of roster turnover for the 2022 season as they aim to host their fifth-consecutive AFC Championship Game en route to Super Bowl LVII.

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