KC Chiefs’ Biggest Week 15 Win Was Staying in the Race for AFC's No. 1 Seed
For most teams, losing four of six games would lead to virtually no one considering them legitimate threats for the top seed in the conference. The Kansas City Chiefs' blend of pedigree, a 6-1 cushion to start the season, tiebreakers and some luck has somehow kept them in the race figuratively and mathematically.
In the first of four consecutive games against backup quarterbacks to close the regular season, Andy Reid's squad took care of business. Sunday's road victory against the New England Patriots was nice, but the outcome itself might be more important than anything that happened during the game. For once, the result mattered a significant chunk more than the process.
Kansas City's biggest Week 15 win was remaining in the hunt for the top playoff seed and lone first-round bye in the AFC.
Following the conclusion of Week 14, the Chiefs had just lost to the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins suffered a crushing late-game defeat at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. That left the current top seed, the Baltimore Ravens, with a 52% chance of locking up the one-seed. Behind them were Miami at 24% and Kansas City at 20% — solid probabilities but instances of teams with some work to do. Doing your own job is merely one part of the equation. Other clubs also have to do theirs, with good fortune being the other important element. The Chiefs didn't benefit from that in Week 15, which is why they absolutely had to come out with a win anyway.
Miami bounced back in a big way with a 30-0 blowout win over the New York Jets. On Sunday Night Football, Baltimore triumphed over the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning by 16 points. Coming out of Week 15, the Chiefs find themselves in essentially the same spot they were in seeding-wise entering the week. According to the New York Times' playoff simulator, the Ravens now have a 75% chance at securing a bye. The Dolphins and Chiefs, despite being a win apart, check in at 12% apiece. This is a perfect example of why it's hard to dig yourself into a hole and expect to be able to climb back out of it without outside help. From Kansas City's position, there's a pretty clear — albeit not too probable — way forward.
First and foremost, Reid's team needs to win out. One could argue that if the Chiefs can't knock off the Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers in order, they probably don't deserve the No. 1 seed anyway. For the sake of the race, though, let's assume that happens. Along the way, the reliance on other teams factors into the picture.
Because Kansas City defeated Miami in Week 9, they hold a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Dolphins must lose one of their final three games (home versus the Dallas Cowboys, at the Ravens and home against the Bills). Baltimore must lose two games (at the San Francisco 49ers, closing at home against Miami and the Pittsburgh Steelers) for the Chiefs' conference tiebreaker to kick in. In that scenario, all three teams finish the season 12-5 and Patrick Mahomes doesn't have to play a road playoff game.
The Chiefs have a few things working in their favor, even from a somewhat precarious position. Miami and Baltimore still having to play in Week 17 is massive, and both teams' remaining schedules are far and away more challenging than Kansas City's. Of the four other opponents they play besides each other, all of them are competing for or have locked up playoff spots. It's a relatively daunting slate that gives Mahomes and company some hope they normally wouldn't have while being two games back with three to go.
Following Sunday's win, the Chiefs were adamant about taking things week-by-week and chasing progress in time for the postseason. They aren't focused on odds, scenarios or schedules. Regardless of how everything else unfolds, they won't make a deep postseason run if they don't eliminate some of the mistakes that once again happened in Week 15. The bye has its benefits, but it doesn't mean much if the quality of the team doesn't match the ranking. Kansas City will focus on the former and find out if the latter improves along with it.
