KC Chiefs’ Offense Remains One of the NFL's Better Units Despite Slow Start

Kansas City's normally high-powered offense had another underwhelming outing, yet it's still in a decent spot compared to the rest of the league.

Six weeks into the 2023 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs hold a 5-1 record and have been very clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. Despite having more wins now than at this point last year, however, something seems off. Andy Reid's offense has eclipsed the 30-point mark just once after doing so three times in the first six games a season ago, highlighting how slow of a start this has been relative to recent history and overall expectations.

This may not be last season's offense right now, sure. But in the midst of its struggles, it's still one of the NFL's better ones. Yes, even after scoring just one offensive touchdown in a 19-8 Thursday Night Football win over the Denver Broncos.

From a statistical standpoint, Kansas City compares favorably to many teams throughout the league. Top five rankings in EPA per play, dropback EPA, dropback success rate, first downs per game and third down conversion rate all back that up. The Chiefs are also among the NFL's top 10 offenses in points per game, yards per game, yards per play and overall success rate. In terms of churning out first downs and moving the ball down the field, Reid's group remains effective for the most part. 

Where the Chiefs have fallen short and are falling short, in this writer's opinion, stems from three elements: reliability, seemingly minute play-to-play execution and — brace yourselves — quarterback play. Let's peel all of those back, one by one, and fold in a few examples from the Broncos game to tie everything together. The run game, while imperfect, will loom mostly in the background. 

Reliability can be broken down into a few different subcategories. First and foremost, players have to be on the field and be healthy in order to be reliable. For tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Kadarius Toney and even quarterback Patrick Mahomes at times, the Chiefs' offense has had a key cog in the machine banged up in just about every game this year. With wideout Justin Watson suffering a Week 6 elbow injury, that trend continues. Whether it's Toney working his way back from an MCL injury and then a sprained toe, Kelce working his way back from a bone bruise and then a sprained ankle or Mahomes's lower body getting nicked up and potentially leading to some mechanical flaws, most of this season's games have had some underlying health-related storyline. 

That reliability also goes hand-in-hand with the per-play execution. Far too often in 2023, Mahomes has either forced a pass he didn't need to or ignored open receivers due to an apparent lack of trust. Against the Broncos, both were the case as he threw an ugly interception in the red zone and also failed to hit players like Skyy Moore and Noah Gray on numerous occasions when they had space to make plays. From a receiver standpoint, Mahomes had to direct Toney multiple times pre-snap on Thursday night. Toney and Moore, specifically, haven't always been where they need to be with gaining depth or flattening their routes out. Kansas City is 17th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage, and a lack of execution is the main reason why.

Lastly, Mahomes simply hasn't been himself this season. He's throwing interceptions more often than he ever has, is posting the worst passer rating of his career and is ninth in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt. His reliance on and comfort with Kelce was on full display in Week 6, with him connecting on all nine targets for 124 yards. When going everyone else's way, Mahomes wasn't nearly as efficient. Some of that blame goes to him, and he's acknowledged that in recent weeks. The "Kansas City's wide receivers don't get open!" argument can only be extended so far. 

How do the Chiefs fix what's wrong? Do they make a move for another wide receiver? Do they commit to running the football more than they already have (13th in rush attempts per game)? Do they make a fundamental shift in how they game plan offensively? Something's got to give, right?

The last part is true, but the answer for Kansas City may truly just be continuing to rely on the plan that they outlined in advance of the season. Bank on dynamic contributors staying healthy. Count on young receivers like Moore and rookie Rashee Rice to gain comfort, familiarity and consistency in the offense. Expect that Mahomes, who's still the best player in football, will eventually snap out of his funk just like he has several times in his career. This notion that the sky is seemingly falling for the Chiefs' offense despite a general top-10 standing is a testament to how elite it's been in recent years. It really isn't falling.

As Mahomes mentioned in his postgame media availability late on Thursday, the Kansas City defense is playing out of its mind. That affords the offense some time to work through what the superstar signal-caller describes as "growing pains." The Chiefs have spent numerous years waiting for Steve Spagnuolo's unit to improve down the stretch of a season, even after starting off far worse than where this year's offense is at. Why wouldn't anyone be willing to wait a bit for a group with the trio of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce leading the way to iron some things out? Don't get it twisted — this offense likely needs to be better in order to win a championship — but it may not be as bad as you think. 

Read More: Four Takeaways from the Chiefs' 19-8 Win Over the Broncos