Arrowhead Report

Patrick Mahomes Could Rewrite Fantasy Football Record Books in 2021

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and there's no reason to shy away from drafting him early in fantasy football.

Mark Van Sickle

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes isn't just the best quarterback in the NFL; he should also be the top quarterback off the board in your fantasy football league, and you should be ready to take him.

The scorching start to Mahomes's career includes some very impressive fantasy numbers, which should come as no surprise. It's important to note that every league is set up with different settings for scoring, but no matter what the league or format, Mahomes will be set to deliver.

In his first year as the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, Mahomes compiled an eye-popping total of 418 fantasy points by the end of the season. This was an all-time record-setting number for a quarterback, surpassing Peyton Manning's historic 2013 fantasy season in which Manning threw 55 touchdown passes. It was a perfect storm of explosive offense matched with a weak Chiefs defense. Mahomes needed to will his team to victory in that 2018 season, leading to impressive fantasy numbers.

His peak scoring total was 50 fantasy points in Week 2 of the 2018 season, a game in which the Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-37. Mahomes was unstoppable in this performance, going 23-for-28 for 326 yards passing, six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also carried the ball five times for 18 yards.

Mahomes's average total points per game in the 2018 season was an incredible 28 fantasy points. The key to fantasy success this year was consistency. His lowest output for one week was 15 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a blowout victory.

In 2019, despite suffering through a nagging ankle injury early in the season and missing a couple of games due to a dislocated knee, Mahomes still averaged 21 fantasy points per game.

His season-high 42 fantasy points came in a Week 2 28-10 victory over the artist formerly known as the Oakland Raiders. He threw for 443 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

The 2020 season was strange for everyone, but Mahomes still delivered the goods on the field and showed no signs of slowing down. His season scoring average jumped back up to 25 fantasy points per game.

In a Week 3 34-20 win at the Baltimore Ravens, Mahomes scored a season-high 40 fantasy points. He was 31-for-42 passing for 385 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added four carries for 26 yards and a touchdown.

As you can see from the data above, Mahomes has been able to get off to a good start early in the season. If you're lucky enough to draft Mahomes, you’re going to want to start him every week, but especially early in the year. In his first three seasons as a starter, he has thrown 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions in September games.

He is easily the top-scoring fantasy quarterback during that time frame. In fact, he has had the largest fantasy output of any position during the month of September the past three seasons, averaging 30 fantasy points per game in that span.

Now, I know what you're thinking. It's great that he has done so well the past three seasons, but what good will that do any of us heading into 2021? I’m glad you asked.

What to expect from Mahomes in 2021

According to Yahoo Sports, Mahomes is projected to score 485 fantasy points in 2021. That would put him on pace to shatter the record-setting numbers from his 2018 season as well as topping LaDainian Tomlinson's 2006 all-time record of 481 fantasy points in a season. Having an extra game added to the schedule certainly doesn't hurt, but there is a chance Mahomes could be the all-time single-season fantasy scoring champion by the time it's all said and done.

If Mahomes puts together an unprecedented season and is able to reach his projected totals, he would finish the year with 5,585 passing yards, 44 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions along with 320 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

This statline would give Mahomes the record for the most passing yards ever recorded in a single season. Given the extra game, this record could realistically be overtaken sooner rather than later. As far as fantasy football goes, it would go down as the best season of all time.

You could draft flash-in-the-pan Josh Allen and hope he repeats his 2020 performance. You could take dual-threat Lamar Jackson and rely on rushing totals. You could roll the dice with Dak Prescott. Maybe you're thinking about taking the steady hand of Russell Wilson, but his offensive line is still shaky at best.

The bottom line is simple: you want Patrick Mahomes to be QB1 on your fantasy football team. He is the best quarterback in the NFL and will be among the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns while limiting turnovers. Plus, he has weapons like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill who will only enhance his consistency week-in and week-out, at home or on the road. Take my advice: draft Mahomes and watch him lead your team to fantasy glory in 2021.

Read More: Ranking the Greatest Threats to the Chiefs in the AFC

Published
Mark Van Sickle
MARK VAN SICKLE

Mark Van Sickle was born in Seattle, Washington, but has lived in the Kansas City area for 30 years. He has followed the city’s sports teams along the way from the KC Blades to the Royals to the Wizards/Sporting KC, now the KC Current and of course, the Chiefs. Mark has been a radio producer and on-air talent in Kansas City since 2011 and is currently a producer for morning shows on KCMO Talk Radio. He is a writer and podcast host for the Heartland College Sports Network. He is a writer and weekly contributor to FanNation’s Inside the Royals. He is a consistent guest on Roughing the Kicker Chiefs podcast and, of course, a writer and weekly contributor to FanNation's Arrowhead Report.

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