KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: 5 Questions and NFL Week 14 Prediction

Gathering intel on Josh Allen and company ahead of the Chiefs' Week 14 game back at home.

For the first time since October of last year, the Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Of the last five meetings between these two clubs, Andy Reid's group has a winning record. In last season's matchup, however, it was Sean McDermott's squad that came rolling into Kanas City and won a 24-20 outing early in the season. Both organizations have taken interesting turns since then, and neither club's 2023 regular season has gone exactly as planned. 

For the Chiefs, their offense is struggling relative to what many have come to expect from a Reid and Patrick Mahomes unit. The result is an 8-4 start to the year and a bit of doubt about securing the AFC's one-seed come playoff time. On the other side, the Bills find themselves boasting just a .500 record 12 games into the year and are fighting to save their season in all likelihood. While Week 14 may not be a mathematical must-win for these teams, it's undoubtedly a playoff-style atmosphere. 

What's important to know about Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup? How could the action unfold? Jonathan Alfano of Bills Central was kind enough to answer five questions for me to cover all of that and more.

In your estimation, what are a couple of the biggest reasons why this year's Bills team hasn't lived up to expectations?

JA: Injuries have played a part in it, but I think a lot of the Bills’ problems this year have been self-inflicted. The stats show that they still have one of the NFL’s best offenses and a pretty solid defense too, but they’re also turnover prone and one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Broncos game a few weeks ago kind of epitomized their season to me — they fought back through four turnovers to take the lead late, but those really bad penalties at the end cost them. Blowing two separate 10-point leads to the Eagles before the bye week was also indicative of another struggle, that being their 2-6 record in one-score games. Essentially, the Bills have everything to need on paper, but I believe that they’re their own worst enemy.

Are the Bills truly playing for their season in Week 14? How much wiggle room, if any, do they have in the playoff race?

JA: If the Bills aren’t playing for their season, then they’re about as close as a team can get. They’re the No. 11 seed in the AFC and they’ve already lost to the two teams tied with them (Denver and Cincinnati), so that’s already a rough situation. On top of that, they have a tough schedule to close out the year with games against the Cowboys and Dolphins still to come. Even what looks like an easy win on paper against the Patriots isn’t a freebie, as they lost the previous meeting. While I wouldn’t count them out entirely if they lose to the Chiefs, it’s going to be even more of an uphill battle if they do.

How do you expect Buffalo to attack Kansas City on both sides of the ball?

JA: Offensively, I expect the Bills to roll with a balanced attack. As good as Josh Allen is, he can’t do it all by himself. They need to be able to get the ground game going, the receivers (outside of Stefon Diggs) will need to step up and create separation, and most importantly, the offensive line needs to hold up. Kansas City’s defense has been much better this year than in the past, and if Buffalo underestimates it, it’s going to be a long day.

Defensively, I think the Bills need to make Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable while not selling out too hard on the blitz and leaving receivers open. Both the Broncos (in the second game) and Packers were able to generate pressure while holding strong in coverage, and that was key to knocking him off course and ultimately getting the win, so getting pressure with a four-man rush is going to be critical. On the other hand, Buffalo’s secondary has shown some weak spots since Tre White went down and while Kansas City’s receiver room isn’t the best, they can’t afford to give Mahomes easy throws.

What's an under-the-radar matchup that could be the key to Sunday's game?

JA: I’m excited to see how Terrel Bernard will match up against arguably the best offense he’s ever faced. He’s having a great breakout season and has helped make the loss of Matt Milano a bit more manageable, but he hasn’t seen a quarterback like Mahomes and certainly not a tight end like Travis Kelce. He’s arguably the most important player for the Bills’ battered defense and responsible at all levels, so he’s absolutely going to be an X-factor in this game.

How do you see this game unfolding and who ends up winning?

JA: This is certainly a tricky one, and lord knows that I’m not the best at making predictions. The line as of Thursday night has the Chiefs as only 1.5-point favorites, which basically implies that Vegas thinks the Bills would be slight favorites on a neutral field. Ultimately, though, I have a very hard time picking against Mahomes, especially coming off a loss last week. I think it’ll be a very close game, as most matchups in this rivalry are, but I expect the Chiefs to defend their home turf in a thriller.

For additional coverage of the Bills, be sure to follow Jonathan's work on X @JonAlfano_News and check out Bills Central for more in-depth Bills content.