Chiefs vs. Jaguars: 5 Questions and Divisional Round Prediction

Let's gather some intel on Doug Pederson and company for the second round of the playoffs.

The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars by a final score of 27-17 back in Week 10, and things for both sides have only gotten better since then. 

Kansas City ended the regular season on a high note, playing an all-phases game in a dominant win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Andy Reid's team is firing on all cylinders and also had a first-round playoff bye to rest up and get an extra bit of preparation in. Doug Pederson and the Jaguars are also looking impressive, as they're on a 7-1 run since that aforementioned loss in Kansas City. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence rebounded from a terrible first half in the Wild Card round to ultimately lead Jacksonville all the way back in a thrilling win. With all of that in mind, the AFC Divisional Round shouldn't disappoint.

What's important to know about Saturday's Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup? How could the action unfold? John Shipley of Jaguar Report was kind enough to answer five questions for me to cover all of that and more.

1. What's the single-biggest change Jacksonville has witnessed since the Week 10 matchup?

John Shipley: Well, they've seen Trevor Lawrence take a big step forward since Week 10. Lawrence had good games this season before Week 10, but it's been his post-bye stretch that has seen him end the 2022 season as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Lawrence is still prone to turnovers, whether it be one of several fumbles in the final weeks of the season or his four first-half interceptions vs. the Chargers. But he has also proven he has the elite talent to overcome those mistakes, something he has done time and time again in weeks since.

2. How well is this Jaguars team actually built to play from behind? Was the Wild Card round more of an isolated thing?

John Shipley: It's what they're built for, honestly. The Jaguars' offense is pass-first because they have a young and ascending talent at quarterback who can spread the ball around to mismatches such as Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Doug Pederson's strength as a play-caller is getting his skill players open, too, so they are really set to make plays through the air at any moment. And on defense, the Jaguars' bread and butter is vs. the run. The reason the Chargers couldn't just kill the clock against the Jaguars when up 27-0 last week is because the Jaguars dominated in the trenches, allowing their defensive line to pin their ears back even on early downs.

3. The key to the Jaguars' offense having success is...

John Shipley: Somehow surviving against Chris Jones. Jones was the best defensive tackle in football this year, but this is why the Jaguars signed Brandon Scherff. Jones is going to have big moments on Saturday, but the Jaguars need to find a way to at least make a living on offense and survive against the onslaught on the interior offensive line that Jones is. If the Jaguars can do that, they have a chance to make things interesting on offense. The downside is they have faced other top defensive tackles this year such as Jonathan Allen and Dexter Lawrence and have seen limited success.

4. The key to the Jaguars' defense having success is...

John Shipley: Not playing into Mahomes' strengths. The Jaguars are one of the most blitz-happy defenses in the NFL, but Mahomes has the reputation of completely shredding defenses when they blitz him. The Jaguars will likely be tempted to send multiple rushers at Mahomes because that is what has helped get them here, but they have to hope they can find some balance in the strategy.

5. Score prediction? 

John Shipley: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 26. I think the Jaguars do everything possible to make this an interesting game but the Chiefs' playoff experience and Patrick Mahomes gives them the edge needed in a game like this.