Looking Into the Futures: Which KC Chiefs Lines Bring the Best Bets for the 2024 Season?

With the start of the season just around the corner, which bets are the most appealing among the Kansas City Chiefs' futures odds?

Mark Van Sickle | Aug 31, 2024

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks on next to tight end Travis Kelce (87) before a preseason NFL football game Saturday, Aug. 10, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 26-13. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the 2024 NFL season at home on Thursday, September 5, beginning the new year with a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game as the Baltimore Ravens come to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to challenge the reigning Super Bowl Champions. With the season just around the corner, it’s a great time to see where the lines have been set for individual players and the Chiefs' regular season and Super Bowl aspirations as a team.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes: 4,300 passing yards (Over -110)

Patrick Mahomes threw for nearly 4,200 yards with less-than-desirable targets at wide receiver last season. Moving on from Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Kadarius Toney while bringing in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Xavier Worthy, and JuJu Smith-Schuster should make things much more fun for Mahomes this year. Having fun will mean more success. That means Mahomes should hit the over on this number without too much of an issue.

Patrick Mahomes: 34.5 passing touchdowns (Over +110)

Copy-and-paste from the passing yardage overs section. Last year, Mahomes had the fewest touchdowns he's had in a season in which he didn’t get injured, finishing the year with 27 touchdowns. That’s the only reason 34.5 is the number. Mahomes should smash this number with the new crew of receivers added in the offseason. He has easily hit the over in four of his six seasons as a starter. I’m anticipating he will hit the over with ease again this season.

Travis Kelce: 900 receiving yards (Over +125)

Travis Kelce has never finished a season with fewer than 900 yards receiving with Mahomes as his quarterback. The last time he had less than 900 yards receiving was in 2015. Last season, he was just 16 yards shy of an eighth-straight 1,000-yard season. If Kelce hadn’t missed the first game of the season with an injury — or if Toney hadn’t lined up offsides on what would have been a brilliant play against the Buffalo Bills last season — Kelce would have gotten to the 1,000-yard mark. Getting plus-money on this is pretty exciting and should hit without any issue. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this number move up in the next few days as people are getting their bets in.

Travis Kelce: 6.5 receiving touchdowns (Over -115)

Getting yards has never been an issue for Kelce, but the touchdown totals have been up-and-down throughout his career. Last season, he only had five touchdowns, but the previous three seasons he had 12, nine, and 10 touchdowns, respectively. Kelce should have a bounce-back year in the touchdown department as defenses will need to account for some of the new receiving weapons, leaving Kelce with more room to work around the red zone.

Isiah Pacheco: 900 rushing yards (Over -110)

The running back position is tough. Dealing with and playing through small injuries happens a lot with most players throughout a season, but the running back position seems to especially be in the crosshairs of injuries that can cause players to miss a couple of games. Isiah Pacheco had over 900 yards last season after rushing for 835 his rookie season. He is the featured running back in this offense, but the Chiefs are known more for their passing game than their running game. That being said, Pacheco should be able to hit this number if he can stay mostly healthy throughout the season.

Isiah Pacheco: 6.5 rushing touchdowns (Over -110)

This number is about right, which makes it a tough decision when making a pick. Pacheco has averaged 6.5 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons, rushing for five his rookie year and seven last season. Since his numbers trended up last year, he should be able to hit the over on this again, although there are some fans who think Carson Steele will be a touchdown vulture in goal line situations. Even if that is the case, Pacheco can still get seven rushing touchdowns this season.

Chiefs regular season win total: 11.5 (Over -110)

This is another easy-money pick. The Chiefs just do not win less than 12 games with Mahomes as their starting quarterback... until last year, when they only won 11. Everyone who watched this team lose at home to the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders knows there were some weird and fluky things that needed to happen for the Chiefs to not win 12 or 13 games last season. So yes, it is possible the Chiefs win less than 12 games this season, but don’t count on it. The Chiefs are set to bounce back offensively, and as long as they don’t take a huge step back defensively, they should be in contention to win 13–14 games this season.

Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+500)

History says not to bet on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX. No team in NFL history has won three consecutive titles. Then why are the Chiefs the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year? It’s because they are just that darn good. The Chiefs have a great chance to win the AFC West, have the best record in the AFC, and to host another AFC Championship Game, which would give this team the best possible path back to the Super Bowl. If the Chiefs get to the game, why would you bet against them at that point? Even though you could have bet this at +700 right after the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, +500 is still a decent futures bet if you want to get in on it before Week 1 kicks off.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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